Florida vs. Alabama, 01/10/17 – Expert Prediction
Written by: Jason Green
Florida Gators (12-3, 8-5 ATS, 7-6 O/U) at Alabama Crimson Tide (9-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 2-10 O/U)
NCAAB: Tuesday, January 10, 2017 at 9 p.m. ET
The Line: OFF
Something has got to give in this game, as 24th ranked Florida and Alabama are both unbeaten in SEC play, but that will not be the case after this game. Florida is riding a five-game winning streak and they are 3-0 in conference play. Two of the Gators three losses this season have come facing ranked teams and they have won two of their three road games this season.
Alabama has won four in a row and they are sitting at 2-0 in SEC play. They do not have a high scoring offense, to say the least, but one of the best defenses in the nation ranking 13th only giving up an average of 61.1 ppg. The Tide are 6-1 at home this season, but they have failed to cover the spread in their last five home games facing Florida.
Using a balanced attack
Florida is one of the more balanced teams in the nation, as they rank in the top 75 in both ppg and opponents’ ppg. In their last game they beat Tennessee 83-70 where the Gators outscored the Volunteers by 14 points in the 2nd half. For the game both teams shot 50% from the floor and while they also shot similar from behind the 3-pt arc Tennessee committed 19 turnovers while Florida had 11. In the game Florida’s KeVaughn Allen hit four 3-pointers in the final 7:34 and scored 23 points overall and Justin Leon went for 19 points, which is just over 12 ppg more than his season average. Allen leads the Gators in scoring on the season (14-7 ppg) and he has gone for at least 19 points in three of his last four games.
Defense and work on the glass carry the Tide
In Alabama’s last game they beat Vanderbilt 59-56 and while the Tide only shot 31.7% from the floor they held Vandy to 35.7% shooting and they grabbed 20 offensive boards. Vanderbilt only had eight offensive boards in the game and they only got six points from the free throw line. Alabama’s Ar’Mond Davis came off of the bench to lead the Crimson Tide with 12 points while two other players went for 10 points, two of which were reserves. When looking at the stats for Alabama you can see that they have to play D to win, as they do not have one player this season averaging in double figures and overall they only rank 287th in the nation averaging 67.9 ppg.
The Florida Gators are:
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record
The Alabama Crimson Tide are:
- 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Southeastern
- 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win
The Gators and their balanced attack and while the Tide and their D will be solid at home Florida will find a way to get the W and cover in a low scoring conference contest.
I dig every sport and the NFL is my favorite. My team is the Redskins and my 2nd favorite is whoever is playing the Cowboys! I am a great handicapper and if you don’t believe me just ask. I don’t just write about betting on games I actually bet on them and I have done well, which is why it is a good idea to follow my picks.
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