Missouri St vs. Evansville, 01/11/17 – Preview & Prediction
Written by: Jason Green
Evansville Purple Aces (10-7, 5-8 ATS, 6-7 O/U) at Missouri State Bears (11-6 SU, 6-8 ATS, 10-4 O/U)
NCAAB: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 at 8 p.m. ET
The Line: Missouri State -7
Evansville has lost three of their last four games, including two in a row where they lost each game by double digits. They are sitting at 1-3 in the Missouri Valley Conference with their one win against a Northern Iowa team that has the fewest wins in the conference. The Purple Aces are led by the nation’s 38th ranked defense, which is only giving up 64.5 ppg and their D is key, as they are not even averaging 70 ppg.
Missouri State won their first two games in conference play, but they have lost their last two. The Bears are also led by their defense, but they have also been pretty solid on offense as well. Missouri State is 8-2 at home this season and will be hosting an Evansville team that has lost three of their four road games. Evansville is 5-2-2 ATS in the last 9 road games facing Missouri State.
Look deeper at the stats
In Evansville’s last game they lost to a Drake team 88-76 that only has four wins on the season and by looking at the stats you would think the Purple Aces won. They shot a better FG%, 3 pt FG%, and only had two more turnovers, but looking deeper in the stats the Purple Aces committed 21 personal fouls. That led to 25 free throws by Drake and they made 23 of them. Star G and leading scorer Jaylon Brown (21.1 ppg) was solid with 23 points and three other players scored in double figures. The Purple Aces sent Drake to the charity stripe too often and they made Evansville pay. Ryan Taylor is the 2nd leading scorer for the squad and no other player is averaging over 9 ppg.
Easy points lead to Missouri State loss
Missouri State lost to Southern Illinois 75-67 and while they shot a better FG% (49.1% to 42.1%) they only had 10 points from the free throw line while Southern Illinois had 20. The Bears had a cold shooting night from beyond the 3-pt arc and they got close in the 2nd half, after getting outscored by eight in the first half, but then the Salukis pulled away. Jarred Dixon and reserve Dequon Miller went for 15 points each and Alize Johnson went for 11 points and grabbed 11 boards. Johnson leads the Bears in scoring and is averaging nearly 10 rpg, but free throws really hurt MSU in their last game and he was only 3/8 from the charity stripe in the loss to Southern Illinois
The Evansville Purple Aces are:
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss
The Missouri State Bears are:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games
This one is a tough one to call and while the Purple Aces have been less than stellar as of late as well as on the road for the whole season they will at least cover in this game. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games between these teams and that is the trend to follow in this MVC match up.
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