Early 2020 NFL Preview-AFC West
AFC West
1)Kansas City Chiefs
Last year's record: 12-4 SU, 10-5-1 ATS, 8-8 O/U
Super Bowl Odds: +500; AFC West: -556
Key Offseason Additions: DE Taco Charlton (FA-Miami),
Key Offseason Subtractions: CB Kendall Fuller (FA-Detroit), DE Emmanuel Ogbah (FA-Miami), OG Cameron Erving (FA-Dallas), OG Stefen Wisniewski (FA-Pittsburgh), LB Reggie Ragland (FA-Detroit).
The Chiefs are looking to do something that hasn't happened since 2004 (Patriots) and that's repeat as Super Bowl champs. Kansas City should have the league's most prolific passing offenses once again. They did finish fifth in passing with 281.1 yards per game, but led the league in passes of 40 or more (18th). The numbers would have been high had Patrick Mahomes not injured his knee (dislocated kneecap), that cost him two games. He still managed to throw for 4,031 yards with 26 TDs and five picks (105.3 passer rating). The knee injury took something out of him in November, but he did enough in the playoffs to lift the Chiefs to their first Super Bowl in 50 years. It doesn't hurt to have the best tight end in Travis Kelce (97 catches for 1,229 yards) and the faces receiver in Tyreek Hill (58 for 860 yds), who missed four games due to injuries. Mecole Hardman added 26 catches for 583 yards for a 20.7 yards per catch and eventually could come close to Hill's production as a big-play threat. At running back, the Chiefs have Damien Williams, who ran for 498 yards and caught 30 passes. The running game is basically an afterthought, although Kansas City drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round, which was a bit of a shocker considering their defensive needs. But they did have a need a running back and well, that explosive offense just added another weapon. Most teams have issues on the offensive line and Kansas City is one of them, especially at left guard. They didn't draft a lineman until the third round with Lucas Niang from TCU, but he's a tackle.
On defense, K.C. had a ton of holes and still won the Super Bowl. They were middle of the pack in yards allowed per game at 349.6 and seventh against the pass (221.4ypg). What helped the pass defense was that they were able to generate a pretty good pass rush (45 sacks). The run defense is another story as they allowed 128.2 yards per game (25th) and 4.9 yards per carry. Getting nose tackle Chris Jones (9 sacks) back was enormous. Jones is one of the best defensive tackles in the league. They could still use some help at the Edge position. The Chiefs signed Taco Charlton, a 6-6, 270-pounder who has not really lived up to his potential. He did have five sacks last season for Miami in 10 games. They did lose Emmanuel Ogbah in free agency to Miami. He had 5.5 sacks in 10 games, before tearing his pec. At linebacker, the Chiefs could use somebody who can cover runners out of the backfield. They led the league in allowing 951 receiving yards to running backs last season. Not a category you want to lead the league in. Kansas City drafted Willie Gay Jr. from Mississippi State, who they hope can fill that need. At cornerback, the Chiefs re-signed Bashaud Breeland, who has some off-the-field issues that may cause an early suspension. They also lost Kendall Fuller in free agency to Washington. The addition of S Tyran Mathieu (75 tackles, 4 INTs) and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo helped the Chiefs go from 31st in pass defense to top 10. Charvarious Ward will step up in Fuller's role, while Rashad Fenton should also earn a spot in the secondary. They also picked up CB/S L'Jarious Sneed from Louisiana Tech, who is athletic enough to have a role in his first season.
Prediction: 13-3. First place. The schedule doesn't feature a lot of tough road games. They take on Baltimore, Buffalo and New Orleans. That's about it and they should go through the AFC West with one loss, if not zero.
2)Denver Broncos
Last year's record: 7-9 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
Super Bowl Odds: +5000; AFC West: +1000
Key Offseason Additions: CB A.J. Bouye (Trade-Jacksonville), DL Jurrell Casey (Trade-Tennessee), RB Melvin Gordon (FA-Chargers), TE Nick Vannett (FA-Pittsburgh).
Key Offseason Subtractions: CB Chris Harris (FA-Chargers), DE Derek Wolfe (FA-Baltimore), C Connor McGovern (FA-Jets), S Will Parks (FA-Philadelphia).
The Drew Lock era starts in Denver and fortunately for the strong-armed second-year player, he has nearly as many weapons as John Elway did in his two Super Bowl wins. They may not have a Terrell Davis at running back, but Elway signed Melvin Gordon away from the Chargers. Gordon is still in his prime at 27, though he's coming off his one of his worst seasons, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry after a holdout. He joins a crowded backfield of Phillip Lindsay (1,011 yds, 4.5ypc) and Royce Freeman (496yds). Gordon brings a solid runner, but more importantly, an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Lock took over around mid-season when Joe Flacco was struggling with his game and his failing body. Lock completed 64.1% of his passes for 1,029 yards with an 89.7 passer rating with one consistent receiver in Courtland Sutton (72 catches for 1,112 yards, 6 TDs). He also has a potential star at tight end in Noah Fant, who caught 40 passes for 562 yards (14.1ypc). They also selected a Missouri tight end for Lock, in Albert Okwuegbunam in the fourth round. He's a talented player who could eventually become an NFL starter. In the draft, the Broncos filled some holes on offense, picking up Jerry Jeudy from Alabama, one of the most complete receivers in the draft. At 15, he was a steal and a player who should make an impact as a rookie. In the second round, they took K.J. Hamler from Penn State, a burner, who could eventually become a vertical weapon. They also beefed up the offensive line by adding Graham Glasgow from Detroit, who can play guard or center. They also drafted center Lloyd Cushenberry from LSU, who may start right away at center. The only surprise was that they didn't draft an offensive tackle high, considering LT Garrett Bolles, who had 44 penalty flags in three seasons.
On defense, Denver finished at 11th overall, allowing 337 yards per game. If there is a concern, it's in the secondary. Last season, they lost Bradley Roby and this year, they lost a solid number two corner in Chris Harris Jr. in free agency. They didn't pick up one in free agency, but they did trade for a legitimate starter in A.J. Bouye from Jacksonville. The Broncos did select CB Melvin Ojemudia from Iowa in the third round, though he was a reach. He should be able to provide some depth. They also traded for Jurrell Casey from the Titans, who replaces Derek Wolfe (7 sacks) up front. Casey is a veteran who can only strengthen a decent three-man front. The Broncos drafted McTevin Agim from Arkansas, who can eventually fill in at 3-4 defensive end. OLB Von Miller wasn't his normal sack-machine-self with eight sacks. Safety Justin Simmons is coming off a great season, where he had four picks and 80 tackles. He earned a 90.8 rating from Pro Football Focus.
Prediction: 8-8. Tough schedule for the Broncos. Drew Lock is basically still a rookie, but they have to go into Pittsburgh, Kansas City, New England, face the Saints and an improved Tampa Bay team at home.
3)LA Chargers
Last year's record: 5-11 SU, 4-9-3 ATS, 7-9 O/U
Super Bowl Odds: +5000 ; AFC West: +900
Key Offseason Additions: OT Bryan Bulaga (FA-Green Bay), CB Chris Harris (FA-Denver), DT Linval Joseph (FA-Minnesota), OG Trai Turner (Trade-Panthers).
Key Offseason Subtractions: QB Philip Rivers (FA-Indy), RB Melvin Gordon (FA-Denver), FB Derek Watt (FA-Pittsburgh), WR Travis Benjamin (FA-San Francisco), OT Russell Okung (Trade-Carolina), LB Jativs Brown (FA-Philadelphia), LB Thomas Davis (FA-Washington), S Adrian Phillips (FA-New England), S Jaylen Watkins (FA-Houston).
The Chargers were 12-4 in 2018 and dropped to 5-11 last season. Changes had to come and it started at quarterback with Philip Rivers. The long-time starting quarterback signed with the Colts in the offseason. That means that Tyrod Taylor is back as a starting quarterback in the NFL. He had his moments with Buffalo, then struggled with Cleveland. He'll hold the fort until rookie Justin Herbert, their top pick from Oregon, is ready. Herbert has all the tools, but needs to improve reading defenses. The Chargers took a major chance by taking him at No. 6, but if you think you have a chance at a franchise quarterback, you have to draft him high, warts and all. The running game needs a boost as they averaged just 4.0 yards per carry and 90.8 yards per game. They re-signed Austin Eckeler, who had 1,550 yards from scrimmage, but he's more of a change-of-pace back. They lost Melvin Gordon and replaced him with rookie Joshua Kelley, a fourth-round pick from UCLA with some power. They have some talented receivers led by Mike Williams (49 catches for 1,001 yds) and Keenan Allen (104 for 1,199 yds). Tight end Hunter Henry is also back after catching 55 passes for 652 yards and five TDs. Up front, the Chargers traded away Russell Okung, who had all sorts of physical issues. They brought in RT Bryan Bulaga, the long-time Packers stalwart. He might end up moving to left tackle, though right tackles Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins have to step up their game.
On defense, the Chargers were solid, allowing just 313.1 yards per game and 21.6 points per contest. They ranked fifth against the pass, allowing just 200.2 yards per game, but they recorded just 30 sacks to rank 28th. That's a shocker considering the fact that they have Joey Bosa (11.5 sacks) and Melvin Ingram (7 sacks). They just didn't get much help. Linval Joseph adds some bulk up front to replace Brandon Mebane. At linebacker, the Chargers are in pretty good shape, though they lost veteran Thomas Davis in free agency. They drafted linebacker Kenneth Murray from Oklahoma with the 23rd pick. He is a little bigger than Patrick Queen, who went 29 to the Ravens, without the speed. Even though the pass defense wasn't bad statistically, they allowed a league-high 71% completion rate to opponents. Getting Derwin James back from an injury that cost him the entire season is almost like making a trade. He has the potential to be great, but durability was an issue back in his college days. At corner, Casey Hayward Jr. is a big-time player, allowing just 26 catches all season. They added Chris Harris Jr. from Denver, which was an excellent pickup. If James is healthy, this defense should be even better, but they also need to get more pressure from the interior and on blitzes.
Prediction: 9-7. The schedule is pretty difficult for the Chargers. Taylor can manage the offense though the running game is still a question. Their defense is the difference between them and the Raiders.
4)Las Vegas Raiders
Last year's record: 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS, 7-9 O/U
Super Bowl Odds: +5500 ; AFC West: +1200
Key Offseason Additions: QB Marcus Mariota (FA-Tennessee), DE Carl Nassib (FA-Tampa Bay), WR Nelson Agholor (FA-Philadelphia), LB Cory Littleton (FA-Rams), LB Nick Kwiatkowski (FA-Chicago), S Damirous Randall (FA-Cleveland), SS Jeff Heath (FA-Dallas), DT Maliek Collins (FA-Dallas), TE Jason Witten (FA-Dallas), RB Devontae Booker (FA-Denver).
Key Offseason Subtractions: S Karl Joseph (FA-Cleveland), LB Tahir Whitehead (FA-Carolina), QB Mike Glennon (FA-Jacksonville), CB Daryl Worley (FA-Dallas).
Talk about changes. Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden basically revamped their defense and added some firepower to an offense that needed it. They'll be in a new city (again), playing in Las Vegas. The offense did have some pizazz, ranking 11th in yards per game at 363.7 yards per game, but they put up just 19.6 points per game. Turnovers were an issue as they were a -2 overall. Thanks to Josh Jacobs (1,150 ds, 7 TDs), the Raiders finished 13th in rushing with 118.3 yards per game (4.3ypc). Derek Carr threw for 4,054 yards with just 21 TDs and eight picks and a 100.8 passer rating. But the Raiders were obviously not satisfied as they went out and brought in Marcus Mariota. The former top pick in the draft was beaten out by Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee. He brings more mobility and athleticism than Carr, who should star. If he stumbles or his injured, you can't get much better than Mariota as a backup. At wide receiver, the Raiders had one of the worst receiving units in football last season. They were led in receiving by Darren Waller (90 catches for 1,145 yds), a speedy tight end who came back from substance-abuse issues to have a Pro Bowl season. But Mayock decided to add to the receiving corps by bringing in veteran Nelson Agholor (39 for 363 yards). He had his issues with the Eagles last season, but he's a capable receiver, who had averaged 63 catches in the previous two seasons. They for a burner in typical Raiders fashion with their first-round pick when they took Henry Ruggs from Alabama. He could be a star and may have had the biggest upside of the receivers, but also needs work. They also added former Kentucky quarterback Lynn Bowden and South Carolina WR Bryan Edwards in the third round. Bowden could play running back or receiver. The offensive line added guard John Simpson (6-4, 321) from Clemson, who will add depth to a pretty solid line.
Defensively, the Raiders needed some help as they ranked 18th overall, allowing 354.8 yards per game (allowed 26.2ppg). The biggest issue is the pass defense, but the Raiders weren't bad against the run. They finished 7th, allowing 98.1 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. They ranked 24th against the pass, allowing 256.7 yards per game and led the league with 16 touchdowns of 40 yards or more. So giving up big plays was a huge issue for the defense. It starts with improving the secondary as they allowed a passer rating of 103.8 last season (31st). The Raiders drafted Damon Arnette from Ohio State, in the first round. Amazingly, he was the second OSU corner picked in the first round after Jeff Okudah. Arnette will likely have to start and they will move LaMarcus Joyner to nickel. At safety, the Raiders brought in veterans Damrious Randle from Cleveland and Jeff Heath from Dallas. Randle will likely replace Karl Joseph at strong safety, who moved on in free agency. Johnathan Abram, who played in just one game due to injury, could start at free safety. He was a first-round pick last season from Mississippi State. Up front, the Raiders add DE Carl Nassib from Tampa Bay, who had six sacks last season. Maliek Collins also comes over from Dallas to add some interior pass rush. He had four sacks with the Cowboys last season. Finally, the Raiders continued their revamp with the additions of Cory Littleton (134 tackles) and Nick Kwiatkowski (76 tackles, 3 sacks). Littleton was arguably the best middle linebacker on the market.
Prediction: 7-9, third place. Even though the Raiders made a ton of changes, they still have some issues at quarterback and cornerback. There could be chemistry issues with so many new players, learning a different scheme without much preparation.
(some info from ESPN.com, PFF.com and NFL.com)