Early 2020 NFL Preview-NFC South

(odds from Pointsbet)

1)New Orleans Saints

Last year's Record: 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS, 9-7 O/U

Super Bowl Odds: +1100; NFC South: -115

Key Offseason Additions: S Malcolm Jenkins (FA-Eagles), QB Jameis Winston (FA-Tampa Bay), WR Emmanuel Sanders (FA-49ers), RB Ty Montgomery (FA-NY Jets).

Key Offseason Losses: QB Teddy Bridgewater (FA-Panthers), OLB A.J. Klein (FA-Bills), S Vonn Bell (FA-Bengals), WR Ted Ginn Jr. (FA-Chicago).

The Saints had to prepare for the future and that's without star QB Drew Brees, who signed a two-year deal to remain with the team in the offseason. Brees is expected to go into the broadcast booth after he retires. That could be in two seasons, but if he has another injury-marred season, he may just end it after 2020. Brees played in just 11 games due to a broken hand, but was still productive, throwing for 2,979 yards with 27 TDs and just for picks for a league-leading 116.3 passer rating. Teddy Bridgewater played well in his place and earned a big deal with Carolina in the offseason. That meant the Saints needed a backup for the 40-year old Brees and found a potential replacement in Jameis Winston. This is a loaded offense now with Michael Thomas at wide receiver, who led the league with 148 catches for 1,725 yards and nine TDs. They added 33-year old veteran Emmanuel Sanders, who caught 66 passes for 869 yards with Denver and San Francisco. Grabbing a quarterback is the not first option, so they have to look at giving Brees the best available options. Alvin Kamara (797 yards) is not a great top option, but his receiving ability (81 catches for 533 yards) makes him invaluable. TE Jared Cook added 43 catches for 705 yards and nine TDs last season. They drafted Adam Trautman from Dayton in the fourth round, who was a steal. The offensive line needed some help at guard and drafted Cesar Ruiz from Michigan, in the first round, who is expected to take over for Larry Warford, who was released.

Defensively, New Orleans wasn't bad last season, They played well against the run, allowing just 91.3 yards per game (4th), but this is a passing league. They gave up 242 yards per game in the air (20th) and 333 yards per game overall (11th). The Saints brought back veteran Malcolm Jenkins, who will immediately the leader of the secondary. Cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (68.8 Pro Football Focus grades) and Marshon Lattimore (68.1 PFF) are coming off down seasons. Up front, DE Cam Jordan is coming off a monster season with 15.5 sacks. He just didn't have a lot of help. Third-round pick Zack Baun was an excellent choice at 74 and could find his way in the rotation as a pass rusher. Kiko Alonso is more of a part-time player at this point in his career but will take over for A.J. Klein. All-Pro linebacker Demario Davis led the Saints with 111 tackles and added four sacks and 12 passes defensed.

Prediction: 11-5. As long as Brees is out there, this squad should win at least 11 games. They are 26-6 in their last two seasons, but couldn't win a Super Bowl. Maybe this is the year.

2)Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last year's Record: 7-9 SU, 5-9-2 ATS, 12-4 O/U

Super Bowl Odds: +1000; NFC South: +125

Key Offseason Additions: QB Tom Brady (FA-New England), OL Rob Gronkowski (FA-New England), OL Joe Haeg (Colts).

Key Offseason Losses: WR Breshard Perriman (FA_Jets), DE Carl Nassib (FA-Raiders), QB Jameis Winston (FA-New Orleans), RB Peyton Barber (FA-Washington).

Tampa Bay has now become a contender. At least on paper thanks to the arrivals of Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady. "Gronk" spent 2019 partying and becoming a wrestler. He retired a Super Bowl champ and returned to join his fried Brady in Tampa.

"Gronk" will be 31 and his numbers (47 catches for 682 yards, 3 TDs in 2018) have been in decline. Brady (4,057 yds, 24 TDs, 8 INTs) should flourish with more offensive talent and he's not going to throw 30 interceptions as Jameis Winston did last season. When he sees a pass rush, he's going to go down unless he can get rid of the ball. But Brady is smart enough not to take many hits at 42 (will be 43 when season starts). Mike Evans (67 catches for 1,157 yards, 8 TDs) and Chris Godwin (86 for 1,333 yds, 9 TDs) will give Brady the best duo he's had since Randy Moss and Wes Welker. They do have a decent young back in Ronald Jones (724 yards, 6 TDs) but Tampa Bay averaged just 95 yards per game (24th) on the ground. The Bucs drafted Ke'Shawn Vaughn from Vanderbilt in the third round as a backup. Up front, the Patriots needed help at both tackle spots. They took Tristan Wirfs at No. 13 from Iowa, who should have been picked in the top 10. He can play either tackle spot, though likely will start out at right tackle opposite of Donovan Smith.

Defensively, Tampa Bay struggled last season, allowing 28 points per game (28th) and 270 yards in the air. They did great against the run (73.8ypg) to lead the league, but a lot of that was due to the fact that they couldn't stop the pass. They were a mess at cornerback and lot of that was due to youth. They surrendered an incredible 3,176 passing yards to wide receivers. Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean all have potential, but they were exploited last season. With Shaq Barrett (19.5 sacks) and Jason Pierre-Paul (8.5 sacks) rushing the passer, they can't blame lack of pressure on their passing woes. The Bucs drafted Antoine Winfield from Minnesota in the third round to help at safety. Up front, nose tackle Vita Vea is a key to that run defense and allows the linebackers like Lavonte David (123 tackles) to be free to make plays.

Prediction: 10-6. The schedule is not overwhelming. They do have to play the NFC North, but the Vikes and Packers are at home. Either way, the secondary issues will be a little better and Brady will limit the mistakes.

3)Atlanta Falcons

Last year's Record: 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS, 7-9 O/U

Super Bowl Odds: +4500; NFC South: +900

Key Offseason Additions: RB Todd Gurley (FA-Rams), DE Dante Fowler (FA-Rams), TE Hayden Hurst (Trade-Baltimore), OLB Charles Harris (Trade-Miami).

Key Offseason Losses: TE Austin Hooper (FA-Cleveland), OT Ty Sambarailo (FA-Tennessee), OG Wes Schweitzer (FA-Washington), DE Adrian Clayborn (FA-Cleveland), LB De'Vondre Campbell (FA-Arizona), OLB Vic Beasley (FA-Tennessee), CB Desmond Trufant (FA-Detroit).

Atlanta opened up the season at 1-7 last year and it looked like curtains for head coach Dan Quinn. They finished the season at 6-2 and saved Quinn and GM Thomas Dimitroff's job. It also impacted their draft selection, putting them in the middle of the pack at 16. Atlanta's struggles have mainly been on the defensive side, despite Quinn's former job as a defensive coordinator with Seattle. Offensively, the Falcons have talent, but should be able to score more than 24 points per game (13th). Part of the problem is at running back, where they averaged just 85 yards per game to rank 30th in the league. They need more balance for Matt Ryan and took a serious chance on RB Todd Gurley from the Rams, though he is definitely an injury concern. Davaonta Freeman (656 yards) is a free agent and appears to be on the downside. Gurley rushed for 857 yards and 12 TDs last season, but averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. He is just one season removed from rushing for 1,251 yards in 14 games and 17 TDs (4.9ypc). The Falcons did send a second-round pick to Baltimore for backup tight end Hayden Hurst. With Austin Hooper gone in free agency, the addition of Hurst should be a solid replacement. Hurst is one of the fastest tight ends in the league and while blocking is not his forte', he should put up strong numbers playing with Ryan (4,466 yards, 66.2%, 26 TDs, 14 INTs). Julio Jones is still one of the best receivers in the game. He caught 99 passes for 1,394 yards with six TDs, while Calvin Ridley (63 catches for 866 yards) missed three games due to injury last season.

. The Falcons could use help at guard as James Carpenter and Jamon Brown are pretty inept. They need second-year pro Chris Lindstrom to stay healthy at right guard. Third-round pick Matt Hennessy from Temple can play guard or center in a pinch. He was an excellent selection.

Atlanta struggled last season on defense, allowing 24.9 points per game (23rd), 355.8 yards per game (20th), 245 yards per game in the air (22nd) and 1.8 sacks per game (29th). They really struggled at cornerback, especially in that 1-7 start, allowing an average of 31.3 points per game. Desmond Trufant was the number one corner, but he's now gone in free agency. Without Trufant, they are stuck with Isaiah Oliver and Kendall Sheffield. They played together last season after Trufant broke his forearm and did not play well. The Falcons drafted A.J. Terrell from Clemson, who was a reach at 16. He played poorly in the title game against LSU. He'll have to play right away against Tom Brady and Drew Brees twice a year. Another concern for the Falcons is finding a pass rusher. They did add DE Dante Fowler, who had 11.5 sacks with the Rams last season and is just 25. He'll replace Vic Beasley, who led the team with eight sacks last season. DE Adrian Clayborn had just four sacks last season and DE Tak McKinley, a first-round pick in 2017, has been a disappointment. Up front, they drafted Marlon Davidson, a defensive tackle from Auburn in the third round, who will be in the rotation right away. At linebacker Deion Jones is a stud who had 119 tackles and a pick, but they do have to replace De'Vondre Campbell (Arizona), who led the team in tackles. He did struggle in coverage.

Prediction: 8-8. It might be time for Quinn to go. The lack of a quality running game, assuming Gurley doesn't get back to his old form and a solid defense, is going to be their undoing.

4)Carolina Panthers

Last year's Record: 5-11 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 11-5 O/U

Super Bowl Odds: +2000; NFC South: +1500

Key Offseason Additions: QB Teddy Bridgewater (FA-New Orleans), WR Robby Anderson (FA-Jets), OT Russell Okung (Trade-Chargers), OG John Miller (FA-Cincinnati), LB Tahir Whitehead (FA-Raiders), DE Stephen Weatherly (FA-Minnesota), WR Pharoh Cooper (FA-Arizona), WR Seth Roberts (FA-Baltimore), QB P.J. Walker (XFL), TE Seth DeValve (FA-Jacksonville).

Key Offseason Losses: TE Greg Olsen (FA-Seattle), QB Kyle Allen (FA-Washington), OG Trai Turner (FA-Chargers), DE Gerald McCoy (FA-Dallas), OG Greg Van Roten (FA-Jets), DT Dontari Poe (FA-Dallas), LB Luke Kuechly (retired), DE Mario Addison (FA-Buffalo), DE Vernon Butler (FA-Buffalo), DE Bruce Irvin (FA-Seattle), CB James Bradberry (FA-Giants).

The Cam Newton era is over in Carolina. Even though Newton hasn't signed anywhere as of May 17, the era was over when they signed former starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who backed up Drew Brees in New Orleans. There are few teams who made as many changes as Carolina. It starts at the top with the firing of Ron Rivera and the hiring of Matt Rhule from Baylor. Bridgewater did start five games last season in New Orleans when Drew Brees was injured and threw for 1,384 yards with nine TDs and two picks. That short stint as a starter showed that he was ready and healthy again. He earned a three-year, $63 million deal, which also meant the end of the Cam Newton era, who is expected to be released in June. With Bridgewater taking over, there is always going to be an injury risk. So adding a backup quarterback is going to be crucial. Last year's third-round pick Will Grier, looked horrible in two starts at the end of the season, turning the ball over five times and leading the Panthers to zero touchdowns in 17 drives. They could go the veteran route or add another quarterback, but definitely not at No. 7 in the first round. P.J. Walker, who had a strong showing in the XFL, might be the answer at backup quarterback, but they'll only find that out in training camp, whenever that will be. Christian McCaffrey can't be the entire offense forever, no matter how much he bulks up. He ran for 1,387 yards with 15 TDs and caught 116 balls for 1,005 yards. A remarkable year, especially considering the fact they got inconsistent production at quarterback. That should change this season as long as Bridgewater can stay healthy. DJ Moore (87 catches for 1,175 yds) and Curtis Samuel (54 catches for 627 yards) are a solid young duo at receiver. They also added Robbie Anderson, the former Jets receiver, who had 52 catches for 779 yards and five scores last season. Anderson is a tall, rangy receiver at 6-3, 190, who could be just what the doctor ordered for the Panthers as a potential number one receiver. The Panthers were last in the league in allowing 58 sacks in 2019. At center, Matt Paradis was a disaster. He allowed 47 pressures, which was the most for any center in the league. John Miller, a former Bengals starter, could be in the picture at left guard. They also take a shot with Russell Okung at left tackle, in a trade for Trae Turner. Okung is 32 and missed 10 games last season and they traded a Pro Bowl guard to get him. This also means that the Panthers now have a league-high $37M in dead cap room.

On defense, Carolina has to replace the great Luke Kuechly, who decided to retire after 28. He had the most tackles of any player since he entered the league in 2012, so this is a big loss. They picked up Tahir Whitehead from the Raiders, who produced 108 tackles last season and is pretty good against the run (not so good in pass coverage). But it really starts up front. Their run defense was atrocious last season, allowing 5.2 yards per carry and 31 rushing touchdowns to finish last in the league. NT Dontari Poe is gone as is DE Gerald McCoy to the Cowboys. McCoy really declined so no big loss, but they have two holes to fill in the 3-4 defense. Stephen Weatherly (6-5, 265) is a rotation option, coming over from Minnesota as a part-time starter. Taking Derek Brown at No. 7 was one of the most predictable picks in the draft. He was considered one of the best defensive players in the draft and should really add to their front. They also drafted Yetu Gross-Matos, an Edge rusher from Penn State in the second round, who slipped due to some off-the-field issues. They did lose ends Mario Addison and Bruce Irvin in free agency and that's a combined 17 sacks. At safety, Eric Reid was released after 130 tackles, four sacks, but had no picks. A safety shouldn't be getting that many tackles, even if he's a box safety. Safety Jeremy Chinn was drafted late in the second round from Southern Illinois and could end up starting at one of the safety spots. At corner, Donte Jackson (55.6 PFF grade) struggled last season and there's not a lot of options around him. They did draft Troy Price from Notre Dame in the fourth round who has a lot of speed and could fill in for James Bradberry, who left in free agency. There are definitely some questions in the secondary with Reid and Bradberry gone.

Prediction: 7-9. Bridgewater will make this team respective and they should get better against the run. But the pass rush and the secondary are major question marks.

(some info from NFL.com, ESPN and PFF.com)