Free CS:GO Betting Picks 5/29 - Gamers Without Borders - Fnatic vs. OG Preview & Prediction
The second leg of the Gamers Without Borders playoff quarterfinals is rounded out with a similarly studly scenario to that of the day’s earlier offering, as Fnatic takes on OG in a best-of-three that determines who will be squaring off with Mousesports.
Except in this instance, we see more of the ‘Bizarro’ edition of the evenly matched squads facing off today, as both Fnatic and OG have both been uncharacteristically bad in the past seven days (ala DreamHack Masters). This has resulted in OG not having played an official match since over a month ago (4/19, a 1-2 loss to forZe).
Team Comparisons & Points Of Interest
As mentioned, OG stands out with a clear weakness in not having a competitive match played in over 30 days, while Fnatic being the bookmaker favorite at -170 makes plenty of sense despite their recent hiccups. The round spread favorite at -1.5 garners a +175 incentive for those feeling frisky enough to believe OG is going to be that rusty.
Another element in reading the lines for this match is that of the round-total over/under favoring the under 2.5 at -135 payout. This tells me the bookmakers wouldn’t put it past a blowout, but to decentivize the angle of fnatic being the much heavier possibility of achieving this. OG is a +125 moneyline, which is added writing between the lines here.
And while we’re on the subject of handicapping round data, in the past three months as a sample size, Fnatic has played roughly 33% more matches and maps, with both cresting around the 20-22% mark for 2-0 wins accounted for. 0-2 losses on the other hand indicate a 33.3% outcome for OG in this sample size, where Fnatic comprises 20% of their outcomes with an 0-2 result.
While no lineup changes have been made since their last meeting in early April, the 1-2 loss for Fnatic featured maps Inferno, Mirage, and Dust2, with Inferno as their only map conquered in the series before losing maps #2 and #3. Both OG and Fnatic are headlined by their usual 5-man roster suspects, each with four members over a 1.00 impact rating.
Led by Brollan and Flusha for Fnatic, and mantuu and valde for OG, I feel the kicker in this best-of-three will be KRIMZ and JW for Fnatic, as clear vantage points over the middle of OG’s roster in ~NBK and ISSAA.
Pick: Fnatic Spread/Handicap -1.5 Maps (+175 @ Bovada)
Simply stated, OG not only seems like their momentum is against them here, but also has the revenge narrative to counter against a hungry Fnatic team who has recently fallen victim of an early exit in the DreamHack Masters Europe. The 1-2 loss is all too fresh for Fnatic, where the recent playing time for OG is far from it. As insinuated earlier, the middle of the Fnatic roster should be the difference maker here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sweep.