Free Picks For Mountaineer - 7/7/20

Race 2 - Allowance (Purse - $17,800)

This one mile and seventy-yard race on the turf is for 3-year-old and upwards male horses that have not won two races. I believe that two horses #3 Mutashabeh and #5 Soul Beam stand out among the eight runners, although I think that Soul Beam has the edge in this one. Soul Beam is racing for the third time following a long break and is coming off an improved fourth-place finish where he mildly gained in the lane against $10,000 claimers going a mile on the dirt at Churchill Downs. The 5-year-old gelding also has run well at this distance in two previous tries. I expect Soul Beam along with Mutashabeh to set the early pace. Mutashabeh is coming off a seven-furlong race in which he crossed the wire first before being disqualified to third against this level of competition. While the 6-year-old gelding is making his debut at this distance, he has cashed in three of his four appearances at Mountaineer and has posted a career 3-1-0-1 mark on the turf. #8 Lil Pistoria is probably the best of the rest but he is racing for the fourth time in a month, so I will go elsewhere to finish my ticket. #2 Bull Bailey was not a factor in his 2020 debut on June 29 but so I expect him to be better. Plus, Bull Bailey has run well on the carpet.

Picks: I like an exacta box of #3, #5. I also like a win bet on the #5.

Race 6- Maiden Special Weight (Purse- $15,500)

Seven runners will go six furlongs. With no one really standing out, I’m going with #7 Honey Saver who gets a relief in distance after finishing first but being placed fifth as a result of a disqualification for interference in one mile $12,500 maiden claiming race on June 18 at Belterra Park. While this is Honey Saver’s first attempt at this distance, he has finished in the money in two of his four races this year. Jockey Luis Colon had seven wins in his last 25 mounts (prior to Monday’s races). #2 Kings Highway is coming off a second-place finish in his debut at Mountaineer, as well as his first at the special weight level, though he was still four lengths behind the winner. This is the 5-year-old Ontario horse’s second race under the direction of trainer Ben DeLong. Kings Highway made his way to Weirton via Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs. #4 Level Seventeen is also making his debut at the special weight level as well as at Mountaineer. Level Seventeen coming up from Tampa Bay, set the pace and was in the midst of the competition before tiring down the stretch and ultimately ending up fifth against $12,500 -$10,000 maiden claimers while going six-and-one-half furlongs at Charles Town.

Picks: I like an exacta box of the #7, #2, #4. I like a win bet on the #7.

Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight ($15,500)

I believe that this ultimately could be a free-for-all as seven female runners will go six furlongs on the dirt. Two of the runners are first time starters. I will go with one of the freshman runners in #2 Neversaynoletsgo. Neversaynoletsgo has improved in each of her recent training efforts and is coming off a respectable effort at Belterra Park, going four furlongs in 49.16 seconds. The 3-year-old filly is under the direction of Eric Reed, who has a career 11% win rate and a 38% WPS percentage with first-time starters. Plus, Reed and jockey Keivan Serrano have teamed up to win 19% of their races together this year. #3 Kiss The Kat Forme is the most experienced competitor -- making her 26th career start -- though she has been fairly successful, reaching the podium in 52% of those outings.Kiss The Kate Forme, who has shown the most early speed of all previous raced horses in the field, is making her 2020 debut as well as her initial start at Mountaineer. #4 Gigabyte is making her second career start.#5 Flatter Me Sydney and #7 Posh Totty are also options to fill out your ticket.

Picks: I may go with show bets on #2 and #3 depending on post-time odds.