Free Picks for Santa Anita - 9/25/20
Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming $62,500 (Purse -$59,000)
This five and one-half furlong race will include six fillies and mares. I expect that this will be an outstanding meet.
#2 Fantasy Heat has won two of her nine outings on turf and finished in the top 3 on 66.7% of the time on the turf. The 4-year-old daughter of Unusual Heat nearly missed a victory (by a head) -- besting several of the other runners in the field -- at this level going five-furlongs the last time out. Trainer Mark Glatt’s horses have a 14% strike rate coming of a 31-60 day layoff as well as a 14% win rate in allowance races.
#4 Holly Hundy is a major contender here with a 60% WPS at this distance has been very competitive in her last four races despite recording just a third-place finish during this stretch. She has also raced well at Santa Anita and jockey Umberto Rispoli has a 21% winning percentage and 51% WPS percentage this year.
#6 Lucky Peridot has finished in the money in 10 of 14 career races which include four third-place finishes in five outings at Santa Anita. A closer, Lucky Peridot has been able to reel in two-second place finishes this year despite running into major trouble in each of those events.
Picks: I like a win bet on the #2 as well as an exacta box of #2, #4. In addition, I will place a show bet on the #6 and will likely go with a 2,4 keyed with #6 in a trifecta bet.
Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight (Purse- $55,000)
10 fillies and mares will go five and one-half furlongs on the grass. There are three first-timers in this meet.
#10 Va Va Voom is the fastest horse in the field and gets the outside post. She also is coming off a pretty good second-place finish against $55,000-$50,000 maiden claimers and has improved in each of her last two outings. In addition, Va Va Vroom has three cashes in six events on the grass as well as a 50% WPS at this distance.
#9 Cassie Belle turns back from a mile in each of her last two races and has raced pretty well her past seven races. She has raced well on the turf, at this distance as well as at Santa Anita. Expect Cassie Belle, who will have Flavien Plat in the saddle, to work off the pace.
#5 Envy is coming off the best race of her career, finishing second despite experiencing trouble, but that was back in February. The 5-year-old mare is racing for just the second time on the grass and for the first time under trainer Anthony Saavedra. Envy also has had four strong workouts.
#4 Bella Chica also should be very much in the mix. The 4-year-old daughter of City Zip has five top-3 finishes in her seven career outings and has raced well at this distance. While she has shown improvement in each of her last two races, Bella Chica to beat either Va Va Voom or Cassie Belle.
#8 Rickie’s Nine Toes has raced well under trainer Jorge Periban, finishing in the top 3 in all four meets. She has finished in the top 3 in all five of her career races but she has not raced since February.
#3 Three Dreams is the best of the first time starters.
Picks: I like the 10 to win. I also like a trifecta box of 10, 9, 5, 4, 8. I also like a show bet on the #5 and #4.
Race 6- Grade III Chillingworth Stakes
Six fillies and mares will go six and one-half furlongs on the dirt. This should be an outstanding race.
#1 Message is a Bob Baffert, who has won 33% of his graded stakes and finished in the top 3 in 67% of those meets in 2020, trained horse. The 4-year-old filly has shown improvement in each of her last two efforts and won the $75,000 Tranquility Stakes despite having a bobbled start. She has run well at Santa Anita as well as when Message starts on the rail.
#7 Amuse has raced extremely well in each of her last two graded stakes affairs and is coming off a second-place finish in the Grade 3 Rancho Bernado Handicap on Aug. 14. She has raced well on dirt over her career as well as obtained two wins over her career. The daughter of Medaglia D’Oro will have Drayden Van Dyke, who has a 42% WPS in graded events, in the saddle.
#3 Into Chocolate had an empty bid in the Rancho Bernado Handicap but has two top 3 finishes in stakes races over her career. She has seven cashes in nine career dirt events.
Picks: I like an exacta box of #1,#7. I also like a show bet on #3.