Free Picks For Saratoga - 8/19/20

Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight (Purse - $62,000)

Six fillies will sprint six furlongs in this event.#5 Jill’s a Hot Mess is the only one of the competitors to have run previously and while she has been inconsistent her experience should be an advantage. The New York filly got off to a poor start in her last outing where Jill’s a Hot Mess finished fourth as she stumbled out of the gate and then bumped with a competitor. While this will be Jill’s a Hot Mess’ first start at the current distance, trainer Eric Guillot has her training well after her last race. I really like three of the first-timers, #4Siesta Kew along with #3 Ruby Stiletto and #6 Sassy Belle. All three have trained well. But I will put Ruby Stiletto at No. 2 here as she has been most consistent in her workouts and comes out of Ruby Rodriguez’s barn which owns a 49% WPS percentage with 2-year-old fillies for his career. Sassy Belle doesn’t appear to be a speedster but her training indicates that she perhaps has the ability as a closer. Siesta Kew is out of Mike Maker’s barn and will have jockey Irad Ortiz onboard. Maker and Ortiz have a 26% strike rate when working together.

Picks: I like a win bet on the #5. I also like an exacta box of #5, #3, #6, #4. I will put a show bet on the #6 and #3.

Race 3- Maiden Special Weight (Purse - $72,000)

Six fillies will go one and one-sixteenth miles. Unlike in race No. 2, half of this field has a race in hand and those horses appear to have the upper hand in this affair as a result. #5 Stunning Princess is coming off an exceptional first race as she set the pace and led almost the entire meet before drifting out down the stretch and getting passed by the winner while barely holding on for second at this distance on July 23. The daughter of multi-graded stakes winner Cairo Prince is trained by Danny Gargan, whose barn has a 29% strike rate on the grass at this distance this year. #2 Mo Normal, a daughter of Uncle Mo whose foals have a 17% win rate, should have a better time at it than during her initial start as a defeated favorite. Mo Normal fought back after bumping early in the one and one-sixteenth mile affair on July 23 --the same race that Stunning Princess was involved in -- and ran decently well before having no response down the stretch while finishing fourth. #1 Ingrassia appears to be the best of the first time runners and has good lineage. A daughter of Medaglia D’Oro, Ingrassia is out of Chad Brown’s barn and will have jockey Irad Ortiz onboard -- who has finished in the top 3 in 44% of his turf races with 2-year-olds. #6 Funwhileitlasted should also be considered as this will be her third career start and she showed a little improvement in her last outing.

Picks: I like a win bet on the #5. I also like a show bet on the #1 as well as exacta box of #5, #2, #1.

Race 8 - Bolton Landing Stakes (Purse -$85,000)

This five and one-half furlong turf sprint stakes race is for 2-year-old fillies. This should be a fantastic race. I like #6 Tobys Heart, the even-money morning line favorite, as she was fabulous in her debut, winning the five and one-half furlong by over six lengths at Churchill Downs on June 4. Tobys Heart has been training well and will have jockey Jose L. Ortiz, who has a career winning percentage of 18% in stakes races, in the saddle. #2 Joy’s Rocket is also a major contender having followed up her maiden win with a nearly three-length victory in the My Dear Stakes which was a five and one-half furlong event at Woodbine earlier this month. #9 Mischievous Dreams and #8 Amanzi Yimpilo are also strong horses and each could very much win the event.

Picks: I like a win bet on #6. I also like a exacta box of #6, #2, #9, #8. I also like a show bet on the #9, #8.