Air Force vs. Utah State Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 13, 2025
In the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams, Utah State (1-1) plays host to Air Force (1-0). Utah State suffered their first loss in its last game facing a top 25 team and Air Force should be rested after not playing last week, after a win in their opener facing an FCS team. If you are looking for the full score info on this conference clash as well as other free NCAAF picks, continue reading this in-depth Air Force vs. Utah State prediction.
Air Force comes into this game as a 5-point road favorite with a total of 50.5 points.
Air Force is Well Rested
Air Force should be well rested for this game, as they have not played since August 30th in their 49-13 season-opening win against FCS Bucknell. In the win, the Falcons outgained the Bison 426 yards to 266 yards, rushed for 266 yards, forced two turnovers, and did not commit any. Josh Johnson was only 4 for 7 but had 112 passing yards with two T,D and three players rushed for at least 51 yards, with Cade Harris leading the way with 66 yards and two TD, and also had 83 receiving yards and a TD. Air Force covered the spread as a 31-point favorite, and the total went over.
- Air Force did not face Utah State in last season’s disappointing campaign, where they were 5-7.
- Johnson is the new starting QB and in limited action last season, passed for 126 yards with a TD and three INT and also rushed for 94 yards.
- Harris is a wide receiver who last season rushed for 279 yards with four TD and had 368 receiving yards and two TD.
- No shock that the Falcons are nearly all about the run and their rushing offense will face a Utah State run defense that gave up 235 yards in their last game.
Sign Up for StatSalt News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Utah State Struggles in the First Half
In their last game, Utah State was on the road in a 44-22 loss to then-19th-ranked Texas A&M, where they were outscored 30-6 in the first half. They were outgained 554 yards to 250 yards, only rushed for 78 yards, and had one turnover and forced one as well. Bryson Barnes passed for 169 yards with two TDa and no picks. Miles Davis rushed for 50 yards, and Brady Boyd led the way with 87 receiving yards. The Aggies covered as a huge 33.3-point underdog and they have covered the spread in each of their first two games.
- Bryson (402 yards 3 TD 0 TD) has played pretty, but the same cannot be said about the offensive line, as he has been sacked six times in each of the first two games.
- Davis (138 yards 1 TD) is averaging 6.3 yards per carry and has a rush of at least 30 yards in each of the first two games.
- Boyd (118 yards) leads five players for the Aggies who have at least 50 receiving yards.
- Utah State will be playing an experienced Air Force defensive unit that has a strong defensive line and returns eight of their top 10 tacklers from last season.
Air Force vs. Utah State Pick
Spread Pick for Air Force vs. Utah State
- Air Force -5 (4 units)
Air Force won their opener in a blowout over an FCS team and did not play last week. They look to rebound from a disappointing last season, where they were 5-7 and were their first season since 2018, excluding the short 2020 Covid season, where they did not play in a bowl game. The Falcons will have a great ground game and they will run the ball well against a Utah State team that gave up 235 rushing yards in their last game. Utah State has given up 12 sacks in their first two games and faces a solid Air Force defensive line. Regarding the Air Force vs. Utah State prediction, the Aggies will not be able to stop the run and that is the main reason Air Force will win and cover.
Over/Under Pick for East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina
- Over 57 (4 units)
The total went over for both of these teams in their last games and that is the pick I am leaning towards in this game. While they were only facing an FCS team Air Force put up 49 points in their lone game and Utah State scored 22 points in their last game but gave up 44 points. The Falcons are not a passing team at all, but they will rack up the yards on the ground, facing a Utah State run defense that was torched in their last game. The Aggies will score some points but not a lot while the Falcons will do just that, which is why the Over is the pick for this MWC opener.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Bet $5 & Get $150
