Best Bets Today - Betting Picks for April 28, 2026
Use Code SSWC If you're searching for the best bets today, you've come to the right place. The Stat Salt team has broken down several top matchups across MLB and NHL to identify where the value sits on today’s board. Below, we highlight three strong plays backed by pitching edges, offensive trends, and recent team performance.
Best Bet #1: Dodgers -1.5 vs Marlins
The Dodgers -1.5 stands out as the strongest play on the board because it combines an elite starting pitching advantage with a significant gap in offensive firepower and current form. Shohei Ohtani has been nearly untouchable to begin the 2026 season, carrying a microscopic 0.38 ERA and 0.75 WHIP across 24.0 innings while not allowing a single home run. His ability to suppress both contact and power is critical against a Miami lineup that relies more on sequencing hits than explosive scoring. On the other side, Janson Junk has been respectable, but his 3.67 ERA and lower strikeout rate suggest regression is possible, especially against a Dodgers lineup that ranks among the league’s best in runs (164), home runs (45), OBP (.355), and slugging (.466).
Even with Mookie Betts sidelined, Los Angeles still features multiple high-impact bats like Max Muncy and Andy Pages, giving them far more scoring upside than Miami. The Marlins are also trending in the wrong direction, entering on a three-game losing streak, while the Dodgers have won four straight and are consistently generating offense. The bullpen injuries for both teams are worth noting, but Ohtani’s ability to pitch deep into games minimizes that concern for Los Angeles. Given the combination of dominant pitching, superior lineup depth, and strong recent momentum, the Dodgers are well-positioned not just to win, but to win comfortably. Laying the run line is justified here, and this projects as one of the clearest multi-run victory opportunities on the slate.
Best Bet #2: Rays +1.5 vs Guardians
Tampa Bay +1.5 is one of the most reliable underdog-style plays because it provides cushion alongside a legitimate chance to win outright. The biggest factor here is the starting pitching mismatch in favor of the Rays. Nick Martinez has been excellent with a 2.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, showing strong command and limiting damage effectively. Tanner Bibee, meanwhile, enters winless at 0-3 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, allowing more traffic and struggling to keep runs off the board. That gap in efficiency gives Tampa Bay a clear edge in the early innings.
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Offensively, the Rays also hold advantages in batting average, OBP, and recent production. Yandy Diaz’s elite on-base ability and Junior Caminero’s power presence provide a balanced attack, while Cleveland has been more inconsistent and heavily reliant on Jose Ramirez. The Guardians have also dropped four of their last five games, signaling a potential downward trend, while Tampa Bay enters in strong form with five straight wins. Injuries further tilt this matchup, as Cleveland’s bullpen is dealing with multiple absences, which could become critical if Bibee exits early or struggles.
The +1.5 run line is especially valuable here because Tampa Bay’s pitching and contact-heavy offense make blowouts unlikely. Even in a loss scenario, this profiles as a tight, low-scoring game, increasing the probability of covering. With a realistic path to both an outright win and a close margin if they fall short, this is one of the safest and most versatile bets on the board.
Best Bet #3: Angels -1.5 vs White Sox
Backing the Angels -1.5 is a high-confidence play driven almost entirely by Jose Soriano’s dominant form and the offensive gap between these two teams. Soriano has been one of the best pitchers in baseball early in the season, posting a 5-0 record with a staggering 0.24 ERA and 0.82 WHIP across 37.2 innings. His ability to limit hits (just 18 allowed) while generating strikeouts (43) and suppressing home runs makes him extremely difficult to score against. That kind of performance gives Los Angeles a massive advantage over Chicago, even though Davis Martin has been solid with a 2.01 ERA.
The Angels also hold the edge offensively, ranking higher in runs, OBP, and slugging percentage. Mike Trout continues to anchor the lineup with nine home runs and 20 RBI, while Jorge Soler adds middle-order power. Chicago’s offense, led by Munetaka Murakami, has some pop but lacks consistency and overall depth compared to Los Angeles. Additionally, the Angels are in a bounce-back spot after a recent losing streak, while Chicago just played a high-scoring game that may inflate perception of their offense.
Injuries impact both teams, but Chicago’s lack of depth in key areas—particularly pitching—makes them more vulnerable if Martin falters or exits early. With Soriano likely to control the game and the Angels’ offense positioned to capitalize on scoring opportunities, this sets up well for a multi-run victory. Given the combination of elite pitching and superior offensive metrics, laying the run line provides strong value in this matchup.
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