Best Bets Today - Betting Picks for May 7, 2026

By: Kyle Kargel Published 05/07/2026, 09:24 AM ET

Best Bets Today from Expert Handicappers at Stat Salt - May 13, 2026

If you're searching for the best bets today, you've come to the right place. Using the proven Stat Salt style, we’re breaking down some of the strongest plays across MLB based strictly on matchup data, recent form, and statistical edges.

These picks are designed to give you a clear advantage before placing your wagers. Let’s get into best bets for May 7, 2026!

Best Bet #1: Chicago Cubs -1.5 vs Cincinnati Reds

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The Cubs are the strongest run-line target on the board because this matchup checks multiple boxes: form, starter edge, lineup edge and bullpen/team pitching edge. Chicago enters on an eight-game winning streak and has already taken the first three games of the series from Cincinnati, including two extra-inning wins and a 5-4 victory. The Reds, meanwhile, have lost six straight and are asking Rhett Lowder to slow down one of the hottest teams in baseball. Lowder enters with a 5.09 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, while Shota Imanaga has been excellent for Chicago at 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.85 WHIP across 41.1 innings. That is a major gap. The Cubs also have the far better offense, hitting .259 with a .352 OBP and 200 runs, compared to Cincinnati’s .219 average, .304 OBP and 153 runs. The Reds have power, but Chicago has the better balance and current momentum. Prediction: Cubs 5, Reds 2.

Best Bet #2: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline vs Boston Red Sox

Tampa Bay at a near pick’em price is very appealing. The Rays are 24-12, only a half-game back in the AL East, and have won six straight, while Boston is 16-21 despite entering on a three-game winning streak. The starting pitching matchup is not perfect for Tampa Bay, as Griffin Jax has a 5.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, but Jake Bennett has only logged five innings for Boston, meaning the Red Sox may need a lot from a pitching staff already dealing with injuries. The bigger edge is Tampa Bay’s full-team profile. The Rays have a 3.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and .221 opponent batting average, all notably better than Boston’s 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .244 opponent average. Tampa Bay also has the better offense, stronger night-game record and more reliable run prevention. With Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda leading a balanced lineup, the Rays are the better side. Prediction: Rays 5, Red Sox 3.

Best Bet #3: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline vs Miami Marlins

Baltimore is the best plus-money target from the earlier card. Miami has the better starting pitcher numbers with Max Meyer entering 2-0 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, but the Orioles have already beaten the Marlins twice in this series by scores of 9-7 and 7-4. That matters because Baltimore’s lineup has shown it can do damage against Miami’s staff, and the Orioles offer more power with 40 home runs and a .389 slugging percentage. Miami is better in batting average and OBP, but its offense has not matched Baltimore’s pop, and the Marlins enter on a four-game losing streak. Cade Povich is not a shutdown option, but his 4.41 ERA is workable if Baltimore’s bats stay hot. Gunnar Henderson, Taylor Ward and Jeremiah Jackson give the Orioles enough run-production upside to overcome Miami’s starter edge, especially at an underdog price around +104. The value is on Baltimore to complete the sweep. Prediction: Orioles 5, Marlins 4.