Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction and Picks - September 5, 2025
The Arizona Diamondbacks will continue their home series against the Boston Red Sox at Chase Field, and we have you ready to go with the Red Sox vs Diamondbacks prediction. Opening Pitch is slated for 9:40 PM Eastern, as Boston looks to climb in the AL East. Read on for the Red Sox vs Diamondbacks prediction and more free MLB picks.
This article was written before Thursday's action
Red Sox Send Tolle To The Mound
Boston was only able to scrape together one run on seven hits as they dropped the series finale against Cleveland. The Red Sox were led by Romy Gonzalez, who finished with two hits as the team struck out 10 times along the way. Brennan Bernardino got the start, and over 0.2 innings, he struck out none and allowed one run.
RHP Payton Tolle remains a high-ceiling arm for the Boston Red Sox this season, blending power and command in his early major league run. After rising through the minors, where he logged 91.2 innings with a 3.04 ERA, 133 strikeouts, and a 0.99 WHIP—showcasing elite swing-and-miss potential and impressive efficiency. His debut at the big league level has been limited but promising, making a strong impression in his first appearance.
In the Majors this season:
ERA: 3.38
Opponent Batting Average (OBA): .158
WHIP: 0.94
Boston enters this contest averaging 5.15 runs per game, placing them 6th in the league. The Red Sox maintain a team batting average of .258, ranking 8th overall. At home, they have shown improved performance, with a batting average of .275. However, their offense has been less effective during daytime games, with a batting average of .255. The Red Sox average 1.2 home runs per game, which has been a great tailwind in their efforts to drive runners home. They have been effective with runners in scoring positions, contributing to their run production.
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Arizona Aims to Reach .500
Arizona only tallied two runs on three hits, but it was enough to get the win over Detroit. The Diamondbacks struck out 10 times as the offense struggled to find its footing. Zac Gallen got the start, and over six innings, he struck out five and allowed no runs on four hits.
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is slated to start for the Arizona Diamondbacks. This season, Rodriguez has made 24 starts, posting a 6-8 record with a 5.40 ERA over 125.2 innings pitched. He has recorded 120 strikeouts and issued 51 walks, holding opposing hitters to a .248 batting average. While hits have been a problem, around six per start, Rodriguez has done well to limit the long ball, and he's averaging nearly seven strikeouts per game.
At home this season, Rodriguez holds the following splits:
ERA: 4.24
Opponent Batting Average (OBA): .261
BB/K Ratio: 0.40
Arizona enters this contest averaging 5.48 runs per game, which lands them at 3rd in the league. The Diamondbacks hit well at the plate and are sitting 8th in overall batting average. That average has been higher on the road, with more than half of their extra-base hits coming away from their home crowd. They hit more in line with their season average in afternoon affairs, but home runs came at a much higher rate. Given that Arizona sits in the top five in home run rate and in the top 10 in doubles per game, they will look to continue their hot hitting here early in the season.
Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Pick
Spread Pick for Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks
- Boston ML (4 Units)
Even with limited exposure from Tolle, we know what Rodriguez brings to the table, as his nighttime ERA is the weakest among his splits. Further, the Diamondbacks have struggled when it comes to exercising patience at the plate, and we should expect their high strikeout rate to continue here. Tolle looked good in his first start, and he'll have a lineup that sits top five in hits for extra bases to give him some breathing room.
Over/Under Pick for Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks
Boston ML
- Over 8.5
Even with the high strikeout rate from the Diamondbacks, we should expect some errors from the young hurler Boston is sending to the mound. Boston has shown poise at the plate, and their ability to drive runners home and hit for extra bases should be an added tailwind here. Rodriguez has tossed his weakest in night games, and we should expect Boston to take advantage here.
Over 8.5
