Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Prediction and Picks for Thursday, November 20th, 2025
We’re onto Week 12 of the NFL season, and the action gets underway on Thursday night with an AFC showdown between the Buffalo Bills (7-3) and the Houston Texans (5-5). We’ve got you covered with our Bills vs. Texans prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 ET from NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NFL Betting Picks!
Bills Bounce Back, Cruise Past Bucs
The Buffalo Bills have established themselves as one of the heavyweights in the AFC, and they entered the 2025 campaign as one of the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl. There have been some bumps along the way, but the Bills currently sit at 7-3 entering Week 12. They’re just 3-3 in their last six games, but are coming off of a 44-32 victory over the Buccaneers on Sunday. From here, the Bills own the third-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl (+800), and they’re +200 underdogs to win their own division (NE -250). As for the game-by-game betting metrics, Buffalo is 5-5 ATS and they’ve also split their totals 5-5 to the over/under.
It’s none other than Josh Allen leading the offense in Buffalo this season. The one-time MVP winner has thrown for 2,456 yards on a 69.6% completion rate, adding 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Allen has the third-shortest price to win the MVP at +475. His top target is WR Khalil Shakir, who has hauled in 46 passes for 454 yards and three touchdowns. James Cook has spearheaded the ground game, gaining 968 yards and seven touchdowns on 182 carries (5.3 YPC).
- Offensively, the Bills are scoring 29.2 points per game (fourth), while averaging 387.4 yards per week (second).
- Defensively, they are 14th in the NFL this year, conceding 22.9 points per game. They’re allowing 322.7 yards per contest, which is 12th.
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Key Injury Report for Bills:
- DT Jordan Phillips (wrist) is questionable
- WR Joshua Palmer (shoulder) is questionable. Has 25 catches
- TE Dalton Kindasid (hamstring) is questionable. Has 46 catches
- CB Christian Benford (groin) is questionable
- LB Terrel Bernard (ankle) is questionable. 52 tackles. Second-leading tackler.
Texans Edge Titans, Win 2nd Straight Game
The Houston Texans play in a relatively weak division, but due to the emergence of the 8-2 Colts, a division title doesn’t look promising for the 5-5 Texans. The oddsmakers agree, pricing Houston at +1500 to win the AFC South. They’re sitting at +280 just to make the playoffs. After a lousy 3-5 start, the Texans have bounced back by winning two straight games, taking down the Jaguars (36-29) and the Titans (16-13), more recently. Wrapping up the sports betting side of things, Houston is 4-6 ATS and 7-3 to the under in 2025.
Interestingly, top QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) has been absent for the two recent wins, and he was just declared “out” on Tuesday. It’ll be Davis Mills (726 yards, 3/1 TD/INT) under center on Thursday for a third straight game. WR Nico Collins (642 yards, 4 TD) and TE Dalton Schultz (489 yards, 1 TD) are the leading pass catchers. RB Nick Chubb has led things on the ground, amassing 419 yards and two touchdowns on 99 totes (4.2 YPC).
- Houston’s offense has been underwhelming this season, ranking 21st in scoring (22.0 PPG), while putting up 329.6 yards per game (19th).
- On the defensive side, the Texans are first this season, allowing 16.3 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re also first overall, conceding only 258.1 yards per contest.
Key Injury Report for Texans:
- Starting QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) is confirmed out.
- S Jalen Pitres (concussion) is out. Has 3 INTs.
- OT Tytus Howard (concussion) is out.
- DE Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) is questionable. Leads team with 8 sacks.
- LB Azeez AL-Shaair (knee/illness) is questionable. Leads team in tackles.
- OT Trent Brown is questionable.
Bills vs. Texans Pick
Spread Pick for Bills vs. Texans
- Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-110) (5 units)
I’m fine playing the Bills as favorites in this spot while we’re under one of the key numbers of 6.0. Even though it seems like there has been some turmoil with Buffalo this season, they enter the week at 7-3 SU, and their last six wins have all come by 7+ points. So when the Bills win, they win comfortably. Mostly, that’s due to their high-powered offense, which ranks fifth in both scoring (29.2 PPG) and red zone percentage (66.7%), and fourth in third-down rate (44.9%).
On the other hand, we have a middling Texans squad that’s just 5-5 SU. When you dissect their schedule, you notice that two wins are against the lowly Titans and two wins came against backup quarterbacks (vs. Baltimore, vs. San Francisco). Houston’s defense may keep this game somewhat close, but I just don’t trust the Davis Mills-led offense to keep pace against one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Over/Under Pick for Bills vs. Texans
- Under 44.0 (-110) (5 units)
I was initially leaning toward the over in this game, but I’m just not sure that I trust this horrendous Houston offense. The deciding factor in playing the under was when I noticed that Houston’s offense is 31st in red zone percentage (43.3%). The Texans may move the ball against this questionable Bills defense, but when the field shrinks down in the red zone, I expect Buffalo to stand tall. They’re a respectable 12th in red zone defense (57.1%).
From a trends perspective, the under is 4-2 in Buffalo’s last six games. It’s also a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between the teams when Houston is home. The Texans are 8-3 to the under in their last 11 games. I think we see this game land in the 24-13 or 24-16 range in favor of the Bills. Give me the under.
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