Arizona Wildcats vs Baylor Bears Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday February 24 2026
Arizona vs Baylor picks are front and center tonight as the Wildcats head to Foster Pavilion in what I see as a statement spot for a Big 12 powerhouse. If you are searching for sharp college basketball picks, this matchup is all about rebounding margin, defensive pressure, and whether Baylor can keep up for 40 minutes.
TLDR - Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Arizona -8.5
- Total Pick: Under 154.5
- Projected Final Score: Arizona 82, Baylor 69
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Stats to Know and Betting Trends for Arizona vs Baylor
- Arizona is 25-2 through 27 games this season.
- The Wildcats are scoring 87.2 points per game and allowing just 68.5.
- Arizona shoots 50.4 percent from the field.
- The Wildcats average 43.4 rebounds per game with a +11.8 rebounding margin.
- Baylor is 14-13 on the season.
- The Bears score 82.6 points per game but allow 76.3.
- Baylor averages 12.0 turnovers per game while opponents average 11.4.
- The total has moved between 153.5 and 155.5, now sitting at 154.5.
- The spread has shifted from Arizona -10.5 down to -8.5.
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Market | Arizona | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -8.5 (-102) | +8.5 (-120) |
| Total | Over 154.5 (-110) | Under 154.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Arizona | Baylor | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/24 | 10:03:17AM | -8.5 -102 | 8.5 -120 | ARIZ 80%, ARIZ 53% |
| 02/24 | 08:31:29AM | -8.5 -110 | 8.5 -110 | ARIZ 79%, ARIZ 55% |
| 02/24 | 12:32:13AM | -8.5 -110 | 8.5 -110 | BAY 88%, ARIZ 50% |
| 02/23 | 04:05:30PM | -10.5 -102 | 10.5 -120 | |
| 02/23 | 04:04:11PM | -10.5 -110 | 10.5 -110 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/24 | 08:31:29AM | 154.5 -110 | 154.5 -110 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 02/23 | 09:32:40PM | 155.5 -110 | 155.5 -110 | |
| 02/23 | 04:04:11PM | 153.5 -110 | 153.5 -110 |
Arizona
I start with the numbers. Arizona scores 87.2 points per game and allows just 68.5. That is elite balance. The Wildcats also shoot over 50 percent from the field and dominate the glass with a +11.8 rebounding margin.
This team wins the possession battle. They grab 43.4 rebounds per game and create extra chances with physical play inside. That travels well, especially in a tough road spot.
Baylor
Baylor can score at 82.6 points per game, but the defense gives up 76.3. The Bears also struggle with turnovers, averaging 12.0 per game while opponents average 11.4. That negative margin matters against a team like Arizona that thrives on pressure.
Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou carry the offense. If Baylor is going to cover, those guards need a big night from deep.
Arizona vs Baylor
Arizona’s defense forces 8.4 steals per game and blocks 4.3 shots. Tobe Awaka and Motiejus Krivas control the boards. Even if the shooting is average, the Wildcats can build a lead with put-backs and transition points.
The spread has dropped from -10.5 to -8.5. I see that as value. Arizona still has the deeper roster and the more reliable defense.
Arizona vs Baylor Game Preview and Analysis
This matchup comes down to tempo and toughness. Baylor will try to stretch the floor and hit threes. Arizona will try to pound the glass and force tough shots.
Arizona is without Koa Peat and Dwayne Aristode. Anthony Dell’Orso is questionable. Even so, the Wildcats still have strong playmakers and interior size.
Baylor’s path is a hot shooting night. But if shots are not falling, Arizona’s rebounding and defense will wear them down. I expect the Wildcats to control the paint and limit second chances.
Key Injuries and Notes - ARIZ and BAY
- Arizona: Koa Peat is expected to miss again.
- Arizona: Dwayne Aristode is out.
- Arizona: Anthony Dell’Orso is questionable with an ankle injury.
- Baylor relies heavily on Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou for scoring.
Final Score Prediction
Arizona 82, Baylor 69
ATS and Total Picks
- ATS Pick: Arizona -8.5
- Total Pick: Under 154.5
