Dayton Flyers vs Cincinnati Bearcats Prediction and Picks - November 11, 2025
Tuesday evening on the college hardwood, and we have a Dayton vs Cincinnati prediction ready to rock and roll. Dayton comes into this game off a 77-71 home win over Maryland-Baltimore County to move to 2-0 on the year. Cincinnati is also 2-0 in the early going and they are off a 74-64 home win over Georgia State. The Bearcats won last year's meeting by a score of 66-59 at home. Can Dayton get revenge for that loss? Read on to see our Dayton vs Cincinnati prediction.
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Flyers Struggle To Put Away MD-Baltimore County
Dayton comes into this matchup riding momentum after a 77–71 win over UMBC, where guard Javon Bennett led the way with 16 points. The Flyers are 2–0 and showing the same offensive balance that carried them to 23 wins last season. Head coach Anthony Grant has emphasized ball movement and attacking the paint, and so far the Flyers have delivered, averaging over 75 points per game while spreading the scoring load across multiple contributors. Bennett’s quickness at the point has been key, but the frontcourt has also chipped in with timely rebounding and second-chance buckets.
Offensively, Dayton thrives on efficiency. They averaged 31.6 points in the paint and 13.2 off turnovers last season, and those numbers have carried over into early action this year. The Flyers aren’t a team that relies heavily on the three-ball, but they’ve shown they can knock down shots when needed, keeping defenses honest. Their ability to generate fast-break points—12.2 per game last season—adds another layer to their attack. Against Cincinnati’s physical defense, Dayton will need to stay patient, avoid turnovers, and capitalize on transition opportunities when they arise.
Defensively, Dayton has been steady, holding opponents under 72 points in both games. They’ve shown discipline in closing out shooters and limiting easy looks, though rebounding remains an area where they’ll need to be sharp against Cincinnati’s frontcourt. The Flyers have historically played well in rivalry settings, and their ability to grind out possessions could keep them competitive. If Bennett continues to control tempo and the supporting cast contributes, Dayton has the tools to make this a tight contest despite being the underdog.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +896.00 |
| 2 |  David Hess | +427.00 |
| 3 |  Pro Sports Picks | +257.00 |
| 4 |  David Delano | +200.00 |
| 5 |  Michael Briggs | +165.00 |
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Defense Steps Up In Win Over Georgia State
Cincinnati enters at 2–0 after a 74–64 win over Georgia State, highlighted by Baba Miller’s 24-point, 11-rebound performance. The Bearcats are favored at home, where they went 12–5 last season, and head coach Wes Miller has this group looking confident early. Cincinnati averaged 71.2 points per game last year while shooting nearly 45% from the field, and they’ve shown similar efficiency through their first two outings. Miller’s ability to dominate inside while stretching the floor has given the Bearcats a balanced attack that can wear down opponents.
Offensively, Cincinnati has leaned on Miller as a go-to scorer, but the supporting cast has stepped up as well. Guards like Jizzle James Jr. and Sencire Harris have provided perimeter scoring and defensive pressure, while Jalen Haynes adds toughness in the paint. The Bearcats shot 32.4% from deep last season, and while they’re not a high-volume three-point team, their ability to mix inside scoring with timely perimeter shots makes them difficult to defend. Against Dayton, expect Cincinnati to test the Flyers’ interior defense early and often.
Defensively, Cincinnati has been strong, holding Georgia State to just 64 points and limiting second-chance opportunities. They’ve shown the ability to control the boards and force opponents into tough shots, ranking among the better defensive units in the AAC last season. At home, the Bearcats feed off the energy of Fifth Third Arena, and their physical style often sets the tone. With Miller leading the charge and a deep rotation behind him, Cincinnati has the tools to protect its home floor and extend its unbeaten start.
Dayton vs Cincinnati Pick
Dayton vs Cincinnati Spread Pick
- Cincinnati -7 (1 Unit)
Cincinnati -7 looks like a solid angle given the Bearcats’ early-season form and the matchup advantages they bring to the floor. Baba Miller has already shown he can dominate inside, and with guards like Jizzle James Jr. and Sencire Harris providing perimeter scoring and defensive pressure, Cincinnati has the balance to control tempo. At home, where they’ve historically played well, the Bearcats’ physicality and rebounding edge should give them the ability to dictate possessions. Dayton has been competitive, but their reliance on Javon Bennett and a smaller rotation could be exposed against Cincinnati’s depth and size.
Dayton’s offense thrives on efficiency and ball movement, but Cincinnati’s defense is built to disrupt rhythm and force tough shots. The Bearcats held Georgia State to just 64 points in their last outing, and if they can replicate that defensive intensity, they’ll put pressure on the Flyers to keep pace. With Miller leading the charge and the supporting cast capable of scoring in spurts, Cincinnati has the tools to build separation as the game wears on. Covering the seven-point spread feels realistic, especially with the Bearcats feeding off the energy of Fifth Third Arena in a rivalry setting.
Dayton vs Cincinnati Over/Under Pick
- Under 145.5 (3 Units)
Under 145.5 makes sense in this Dayton–Cincinnati matchup, given both teams’ defensive strengths and tendency to grind out possessions. The Bearcats held Georgia State to just 64 points in their last outing, leaning on physical rebounding and half-court pressure to limit clean looks. Dayton, meanwhile, thrives on efficiency rather than pace, averaging under 75 points per game and relying on disciplined shot selection. With both sides likely to emphasize defense in a rivalry setting and Cincinnati’s ability to slow the Flyers’ transition game, this contest has the makings of a lower-scoring battle that stays beneath the number.
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