Dayton vs. Marquette, Picks, Odds, and Prediction, Wednesday, November 19, 2025
We have a Midwest matchup on Wednesday night from Milwaukee in this Dayton vs. Marquette prediction. Dayton (3-1) lost their only "big" game against Cincinnati on the road 74-62 on Nov. 11 and bounced back to beat Bethune-Cookman 91-82 on Saturday, Nov. 15. Marquette (3-2) was pounded by Indiana by 23 on Nov. 9, bounced back against Little Rock (89-49) and then were shocked by Maryland 89-82 at home as a 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. These teams met last season from Ohio, with Dayton winning 71-63 as a one-point favorite. Check out more college basketball picks and selections from the other six major sports from Stat Salt.
Grant has Dayton set for a big season
Anthony Grant is 368-195 in 17+ years as a head coach and 175-84 at Dayton in eight+ years. He has a strong squad led by 5-10 senior guard Javon Bennett, who averaged 11.6 points per game last season. Bennett had 25 points, five rebounds and five assists in the Flyers' win over Bethune-Cookman on Saturday. Bennett was held to 12 points in their 12-point loss at Cincinnati last Tuesday and shot just 3-of-15 from the field. As Bennett goes, so does Dayton.
That's not to say Dayton is a one-man team. Grant has a 7-1, 235-pound center in Amael L'Etang, who has taken a big step in his sophomore season, going from 7.1 points to 15.0 points per game, along with 7.5 rebounds on 54.1% shooting. They brought in Georgia transfer guard De'Shayne Montgomery, who averages 14 points, 5.5 rebounds and three steals. Freshman guard Jaron McKie, son of former NBA player Aaron, who is a four-star player, is out due to a shoulder injury.
KenPom has Dayton at 74th overall and 77th in Adjusted Offense and Defense. Dayton is struggling against the three-point shot, allowing opponents to shoot 40.5% (343rd).
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Key Injuries for Dayton:
- G Jaron McKie (shoulder) is out. A highly-regarded recruit who hasn't played yet.
Struggles for the Golden Eagles
Marquette head coach Shaka Smart has something in common with Anthony Grant. Both coached at VCU and have similar "havoc" type of defenses involving full-court pressure. Buzz Williams was a former Marquette head coach who brought his Maryland team to Milwaukee on Saturday and came away with an 89-82 win despite losing one of their best players, Pharrel Payne, in an ugly fall after dunking the ball in the second half. Chase Ross led the Golden Eagles with 31 points on 10-of-19 shooting, but the Marquette defense struggled, allowing an already-decimated Maryland team to shoot 53% from the field and 8-of-22 (36%) from long range.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ricky Tran | +4,262.00 |
| 2 |  Nick Parsons | +2,288.00 |
| 3 |  Mark Ruelle | +2,021.00 |
| 4 |  David Delano | +1,449.00 |
| 5 |  Stephen Nover | +1,020.00 |
Ross, a 6-5 senior and a rare productive player who has played all four years at a school. He leads the team with 20.8 points per game and four assists while shooting 51% from the field (34.6% 3pt). There is not a lot of balance as 6-11 Ben Gold adds 10.8 points and 8.4 rebounds, while shooting 47.4% from the field. Zaide Lowery (6-5, 205) adds 10.4 points and 3.8 rebounds.
Marquette is shooting just 43.6% from the field (31.6% 3pt) and allowing teams to shoot 41.8%. KenPom has them at 60th overall, 64th in Adjusted Offense and 62nd in Adjusted Defense.
Key Injuries for Marquette
No major key injuries
Spread Pick for Dayton vs. Marquette
Dayton vs. Marquette Prediction and Pick
- Dayton +5.5 (4 units)
Marquette is 123rd in turnovers per game with 11.6, while Dayton is 44th at 9.8. I do like this Dayton team and Marquette is basically a one-man team right now. They don't rely on transfers, and that's great if you have an incredible group of returning players. They don't. Kam Jones was a walking bucket for the Golden Eagles last season, and while Ross might be that guy in 2025-26, he doesn't have a lot of help. Dayton has Bennett and Montgomery, who can provide scoring from the backcourt. Last season, Bennett had 15 points against Marquette and went 6 of 9 from the field. Expect similar results.
- Under 152 (4 units)
Dayton is going to want to walk the ball up the court most of the time. They rank 269th in Adjusted Tempo according to KenPom and have gone under in three of their last four games. Expect Grant to mix up his defenses to slow down Ross and the Golden Eagles. Possibly play some zone since Marquette is shooting just 31.7% from the three-point line. Dayton is even worse at 28.4% from long range so you'll have teams attempting to get the ball in the paint.
