Evansville Purple Aces vs. Purdue Boilermakers, Odds, Prediction and Picks for Tuesday, November 4, 2025
We have a battle of Sycamore State sides on Tuesday night and we’re getting you prepped with team breakdowns and our Evansville vs. Purdue predictions. The Purple Aces (11-21 SU, 15-16 ATS) are doing everything they can to become relevant in the face of seven straight losing seasons. The Boilermakers (24-12 SU, 20-16 ATS) come into the season as the top-ranked team in the land, meaning the bullseye on their back is biggest. They’ll host this one from Mackey Arena with tipoff set for 6:30 EST. Nobody does it better when it comes to free NCAAB picks!
Evansville hoping for winning hand
While the Purple Aces finished 10 games under .500 for the season, their 8-12 SU record in MVC play was their best conference mark in nine years, so they do have something to build off of coming into a new year.
Evansville is projected to finish last in the MVC according to the Preseason Coaches’ Poll. Head coach David Ragland, now in his fifth season at the helm, saw their top three scorers depart via the transfer portal. They did return two starters to the mix, which is more than a lot of teams at this stage. Connor Turnbull is one of the better forwards in the conference at 6-foot-10. He’s the Aces’ top returning scorer, having averaged 9.2 points per game and he led the conference with 1.9 blocks per game. Aussie Joshua Hughes also got in on the block party, averaging 1.1 a game last season, with 7.2 points a night.
The MVC as a whole got bigger in the offseason and the Purple Aces were sure to keep up with the Joneses. They now have four players at 6-foot-9 or above and no one under 6-foot-3. An intriguing newcomer to the squad is Leif Moeller, a 6-foot-7 freshman guard from Germany who the MVC already has on their watch last. Another interesting rookie is another Australian big man, James Byson-Merwe, who checks in at 6-foot-11.
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Team notes
- Turnbull was MVC Defensive Player of the Year last season.
- Guard Keishon Porter, playing as a grad, was on the MVC Preseason Watch List.
- The last time Evansville faced a No. 1 team was in 2019 when they upset Kentucky, 67-64.
- The Purple Aces are 69-37 SU in season openers.
Purdue stands at the top
After an excellent run, the Boilermakers suffered a loss at the end of each segment in their season last year. They dropped their final regular-season game, then fell to Michigan in the Big Ten quarterfinals before finally ending their season in the regional semifinals of the NCAA Tournament versus Houston.
No program in the country returns the level of players that Purdue does, thus their top billing to open the new campaign. The team has the reigning Big Ten Player of the Year coming back for a third straight season. This time around, it’s Braden Smith, who was second in the country with 8.7 assists and 14th in the conference with 15.8 points per game. Also returning to the starting lineup is Trey Kaufman-Renn, who was third in the Big Ten with 20.1 points per game on 59.5% shooting last year. Both players were All-Big Ten First Team selections last year.
The team will be looking to get more defensive after finishing 194th in defensive efficiency (1.044) last year. After playing a season without Zach Eddy clogging the middle, they brought in 6-foot-11 center Oscar Cuff down low. The Australian transferred from San Diego State, where last season he averaged 17.6 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. Smith was second in the Big Ten with 2.2 steals per game a season ago.
Team notes
- Both Kaufman-Renn and Smith were named to the Naismith Trophy watch list.
- Fletcher Loyer is one of 20 players named to the Julius Erving Award watch list, given to the nation’s top small forward.
- Last season, they ranked 11th in the country in offensive efficiency (1.146).
- Turned the ball over 10.4 times per game last season, tied for 51st in the country.
Evansville vs. Purdue Picks
Spread Pick for Evansville vs. Purdue
- Purdue -29.5 (5 units)
Last season, Purdue opened with three big wins over mid-majors but none more than 22 points. This is a very large spread to cover and while the Boilers were a little slow to get rolling last season, they did take down a couple of Big Ten teams by at least 30 points. After the way things ended for the team last season, I’m expecting them to come out and make a statement. There is no team that returned the level of talent that Purdue did, and they are starting at a point that no other team is, so the beginning of the season should be where they shine the most. The Boilermakers boast all three of their top scorers from a year ago, while the Purple Aces' top returning scorer was just fourth on their team last year. Evansville does not have an answer to Purdue’s big three.
Take the Boilermakers giving the points at home.
Over/Under Pick for Evansville vs. Purdue
- Under 146.5 (5 units)
This matchup features a Purdue side that KenPom had ranked 7th in adjusted offense last season. The core of that offense is back and even better, so expectations are sky high for the Boilermakers' offense. However, they also ranked 300th in tempo, as head coach Matt Painter likes to slow things down and control the pace. Evansville could be lulled to sleep in the process. They had the 318th-ranked adjusted offense last season and were ranked 211th in tempo. Losing their top three scorers from last season’s squad means the offense might be even worse. In this matchup, Purdue is going to get up big enough early to rest their big three. That, coupled with the Purple Aces likely struggling here, means points will be down.
Take the under.
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