Florida State Seminoles vs Florida Gators Prediction and Picks - November 11, 2025
It's the ACC vs the SEC in college hoops action on Tuesday evening, and we have a Florida State vs Florida prediction ready to rock and roll. The Seminoles enter this game at 2-0 on the year and off a 101-64 home win over Alabama State. The Gators come in off a 104-64 home win over North Alabama, which puts them at 1-1 on the year. The Gators have won the last four games in this series. Can the Seminoles break the streak? Read on to see our Florida State vs Florida prediction.
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Seminoles Crush Alabama State
Florida State comes in 2–0 under new head coach Luke Loucks, who replaced Leonard Hamilton after 23 seasons. Loucks wasted no time reshaping the roster, bringing in seven transfers and several freshmen to fit his up-tempo, NBA-influenced system. The early returns have been promising, with the Seminoles scoring over 100 points in each of their first two games, including a 101–64 rout of Alcorn State. Senior forward LaJae Jones has been the early star, averaging 19 points and 6.5 rebounds while shooting 75% from the field. Alongside him, Chauncey Wiggins and Kobe MaGee have provided steady scoring, giving the Seminoles multiple options offensively.
The biggest difference under Loucks has been pace and spacing. Florida State is pushing the ball in transition, spreading the floor, and looking for quick-hitting opportunities. All five starters are averaging double figures through two games, and Robert McCray has been a key facilitator, averaging 11 assists per contest. The Seminoles’ ball movement has created high-percentage looks, and their confidence is growing with each outing. Still, this will be their first true test against a ranked opponent, and how they handle Florida’s size and defensive pressure will be telling.
Defensively, Florida State has been active, forcing turnovers and turning them into easy points. But they’ve yet to face a frontcourt as imposing as Florida’s, and rebounding remains a concern after ranking near the bottom nationally last season. Loucks has emphasized toughness and accountability, but this matchup will reveal how far the Seminoles have come in a short time. For a program trying to re-establish itself after missing four straight NCAA Tournaments, a strong showing in Gainesville would be a statement. Even if they’re underdogs, the Seminoles’ new energy and offensive firepower make them a dangerous opponent in this rivalry clash.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sean Higgs | +1,222.00 |
| 2 |  Rob Vinciletti | +809.00 |
| 3 |  Joe Duffy | +666.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +579.00 |
| 5 |  David Hess | +572.00 |
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Gators Have High Hopes For This Year
Florida enters this matchup ranked No. 10 in the country and looking to extend its four-game winning streak over the Seminoles. The Gators split their first two games of the season, falling in a high-profile opener to Arizona before bouncing back with a dominant 104–64 win over North Florida. That second performance was more in line with what head coach Todd Golden expects from a team that returns key frontcourt pieces and added backcourt depth through the transfer portal. Sophomore forward Alex Condon has been the early standout, averaging 18 points and nine rebounds, including a 25-point, 10-rebound showing against UNF. His ability to control the paint will be crucial against a Florida State team that has retooled its roster with size and athleticism.
The Gators’ offense has been efficient inside the arc, shooting 62% on two-point attempts through two games. The issue has been perimeter shooting, where they’ve hit just 22% from deep, ranking near the bottom nationally. Guards like Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland have struggled to find rhythm from outside, though both have shown they can create off the dribble and get to the rim. Florida’s depth in the frontcourt is a clear strength, with 7-foot-1 Micah Handlogten averaging a double-double and Rueben Chinyelu providing rim protection. If the guards can find consistency from the perimeter, this team has the balance to compete with anyone.
Defensively, Florida has been physical and disciplined, holding opponents to 41% shooting last season and showing flashes of that same intensity early this year. They dominated the glass against Florida State in last year’s meeting, outrebounding the Seminoles 47–29, and that edge could be decisive again. Golden has emphasized toughness after the Arizona loss, and this rivalry game offers the perfect stage to prove it. With a top-10 ranking and home-court advantage, the Gators will be expected to dictate tempo and set the tone physically from the opening tip.
Florida State vs Florida Pick
Florida State vs Florida Spread Pick
- Florida State +17 (1 Unit)
Florida State +17 has real appeal in a rivalry game where emotions and intensity often level the playing field. The Seminoles have looked sharp under new head coach Luke Loucks, scoring over 100 points in each of their first two outings while spreading the floor and pushing tempo. LaJae Jones has been efficient inside, and Robert McCray’s playmaking has given them balance on the perimeter. Even if Florida has the size advantage, the Seminoles’ pace and offensive confidence could keep them within striking distance. Rivalry games tend to tighten up, and Florida State’s fresh energy makes them more dangerous than the line suggests.
Florida is the deserved favorite, but laying 17 points in a heated in-state matchup feels steep. The Gators have struggled from deep, hitting just 22% of their threes, and if that trend continues, it leaves the door open for Florida State to hang around. The Seminoles’ ability to force turnovers and convert in transition could chip away at any big lead, especially if they can neutralize Florida’s rebounding edge. With Loucks’ system emphasizing pace and spacing, Florida State has the tools to trade baskets and keep this one competitive enough to cover the spread.
Florida State vs Florida Over/Under Pick
- Over 179.5 (2 Units)
Over 179.5 feels like a strong angle in this rivalry given the pace and offensive firepower both teams bring to the floor. Florida State has already topped 100 points in each of its first two games under Luke Loucks, pushing tempo and spreading the floor with multiple scoring options. Florida, meanwhile, just dropped 104 on North Florida and has the size to dominate inside while still creating second-chance opportunities. The Gators may not be sharp from deep yet, but their efficiency around the rim combined with the Seminoles’ transition-heavy style sets the stage for a high-possession game. With both sides capable of extended scoring runs and neither likely to slow down, this matchup has the ingredients to clear the total.
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