Indiana Hoosiers vs Purdue Boilermakers Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday February 20 2026
Indiana vs Purdue picks always bring extra emotion, and this matchup at Mackey Arena is no different. Rivalry games can swing on small details, and I break those down carefully before placing a wager. If you are hunting for more edges tonight, I suggest checking out these college basketball picks before locking anything in.
TLDR - Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Indiana +10.5
- Total Pick: Under 148.5
- Projected Final Score: Purdue 74, Indiana 68
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Stats to Know and Betting Trends for Indiana vs Purdue
- Indiana defeated Purdue by five points on January 27.
- Purdue shot just 8 of 15 from the free throw line in that loss.
- Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer combined to shoot 4 of 14 from three in the first meeting.
- Purdue recently posted a 78-57 road win at Iowa.
- Indiana suffered a 71-51 road loss at Illinois.
- The spread has ranged from Purdue -11.5 down to -10.5.
- The total has settled at 148.5 after opening as low as 147.5.
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | +10.5 (-104) | PUR 86%, PUR 71% |
| Purdue | -10.5 (-118) | PUR 86%, PUR 71% |
| Market | Total | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 148.5 (-110) | UN 90%, OV 66% |
| Under | 148.5 (-110) | UN 90%, OV 66% |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Indiana | Purdue | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/19 | 02:18:26PM | +10.5 (-115) | -10.5 (-105) | |
| 02/19 | 11:25:19PM | +11.5 (-115) | -11.5 (-105) | IND 98%, IND 67% |
| 02/20 | 01:02:00AM | +10.5 (-106) | -10.5 (-114) | IND 96%, IND 50% |
| 02/20 | 08:33:11AM | +10.5 (-102) | -10.5 (-120) | PUR 86%, PUR 71% |
| 02/20 | 08:33:26AM | +10.5 (-104) | -10.5 (-118) | PUR 86%, PUR 71% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/19 | 02:18:26PM | 147.5 (-115) | 147.5 (-105) | |
| 02/19 | 03:18:30PM | 148.5 (-105) | 148.5 (-115) | |
| 02/20 | 07:08:34AM | 148.5 (-110) | 148.5 (-110) | UN 90%, OV 66% |
Purdue
Purdue has revenge on its mind after that five-point road loss in Bloomington. In that game, the Boilermakers fought back from a 14-point deficit and cut it to two in the final two minutes.
What held them back was poor free throw shooting and cold three-point shooting. Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer combined to shoot just 4 of 14 from deep, and Purdue went 8 of 15 at the line.
Recent form has been encouraging. The 78-57 win at Iowa was one of their most complete efforts of the season. CJ Cox and Gicarri Harris both scored 14 points in that game, giving Purdue strong secondary scoring.
Indiana
Indiana already proved it can beat Purdue once this season. That matters in a rivalry game where confidence can carry over.
Lamar Wilkerson continues to be a major factor, averaging 21.2 points per game. His recent 41-point explosion at Oregon shows he can take over a game.
However, Indiana’s road form has not been dominant. The 71-51 loss at Illinois was a reminder that this team can struggle away from home against top competition.
Indiana vs Purdue Game Preview and Analysis
This game comes down to margin.
Purdue is clearly the better team at home, and Mackey Arena is one of the toughest environments in the conference. The Boilermakers have motivation after the earlier loss and showed positive signs in the Iowa win.
But laying double digits in a rivalry game is always dangerous. Indiana already beat Purdue once, and that familiarity can shorten the gap.
The total is also important. Both teams have shown they can play physical half-court basketball. Purdue’s recent win at Iowa ended 78-57, and Indiana’s loss at Illinois was 71-51. Those scorelines support an under look in the high 140s.
I expect Purdue to win, but I do not see this turning into a blowout. Indiana has enough scoring to stay within striking distance.
IND and PUR Key Injuries and Notes
- Purdue is seeking revenge after a five-point loss on January 27.
- Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer shot 4 of 14 from three in that game.
- Indiana’s Lamar Wilkerson is averaging 21.2 points per game.
- Purdue dominated Iowa 78-57 in its recent road win.
Final Score Prediction
- Projected Final Score: Purdue 74, Indiana 68
ATS and Total Picks
- Spread: Indiana +10.5
- Total: Under 148.5
