Indiana State vs. Duke, Picks and Prediction, Friday, November 14, 2025
The Sycamores visit one of the toughest places to play in the nation at Cameron Indoor Stadium in this Indiana State vs. Duke prediction. The No. 4 Duke Blue Devils are 3-0 after an easy 114-59 win over Army on Veterans Day. Indiana State is 2-1 after beating SIU Edwardsville on Nov. 10, 64-55. If you need winners, you've come to the right place, as Stat Salt has college basketball picks and other sports available.
Tough challenge for Sycamore
Indiana State is very well known for things: Larry Bird and playing Michigan State in the NCAA Finals in 1980. Then in 2022-23, a 6-10 center with goggles named Robbie Avila arrived and he was able to get some attention on the program because he was very good (17.4ppg, 2023-24). Unfortunately, in the portal and NIL era, Avila is now at St. Louis (14ppg). That team went 33-1 before losing in the Finals. Last season, the Sycamores went 14-18 overall in coach Matthew Graves' first season at the helm. However, Graves had triple-bypass surgery in October, so interim coach Mark Slessinger has taken over for the time being.. Indiana State has three returning key players headed by Camp Wagner, Bruno Alocen and Markus Harding.
They were a 2-point dog on the road against SIU Edwardsville and defeated them by nine. Wagner led the Sycamores with 16 points, while freshman forward Ian Scott (6-7, 220) added six points and 13 rebounds.
Scott leads the team with 14.3 points and 10 rebounds per game, while shooting 71% from the field. Indiana State is shooting 46.7% from the field, but just 25.6% from long range. They are allowing teams to shoot 36.2% from long range.
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Boozer twins fuel Duke
It's like clockwork. Duke recruits some of the best players in the nation (Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel), goes 18-1 in the league, wins 35 games and then has to replace them with more superstar recruits. One of those recruits was Cam Boozer (6-9, 250), son of former NBA player Carlos, who leads the Blue Devils with 18.3 points and 10 rebounds. His twin brother Cayden, is not as hyped and smaller at 6-4, 205, but is more of a point guard, who averages 8.7 points and 5.0 assists per game.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sean Higgs | +1,222.00 |
| 2 |  Rob Vinciletti | +809.00 |
| 3 |  Joe Duffy | +666.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +579.00 |
| 5 |  David Hess | +572.00 |
One of the more interesting players on Duke is 6-8 freshman Dame Sarr from Italy. He's averaging 9.7 points and 4.0 rebounds on 47.1% shooting (5-of-10 3pt). Patrick Ngongba adds 12 points and 6.7 rebounds. Nogngba is a 6-11, 250-pound sophomore from Virginia, who averaged 3.6 points per game last season, sitting behind Khaman Maluach, who is with Phoenix in the NBA.
On the season, Duke ranks 5th in the nation in field goal defense (31.2%) and 25th in three-point defense. The Blue Devils beat Texas 75-60 to open the season so that was a decent test, but they'll have a bigger one on Nov. 18 when they meet Kansas in the Champions Classic from Madison Square Garden.
Spread Pick for Indiana State vs. Duke
Duke vs. Indiana State Prediction and Pick
- Duke -37.5 (5 units)
This is a balanced Duke team that may not be as great on offense as they were last season, but they are suffocating on defense. They rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Rating according to KenPom, while Indiana State is at 198. The Sycamores could use Avila in this game because they have very little size, other than 6-10 Derek Vorst, who only plays about half the game. He'll need a career game just to keep Ngongba and Cam Boozer off the glass. They are also very small in the backcourt. Duke just keeps reloading and while it may not lead to a Natty, they will be in the mix.
- Under 161.5 (4 units)
Despite all their talent, Duke is just 214th in Adjusted Tempo, which means they want to play more half-court and get the ball in the paint to Boozer and Ngongba. The Sycamores do want to run more, but they won't be able to get enough stops or rebound against the bigger Blue Devils. Indiana State's poor 3-point shooting does not help matters.
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