Iowa Hawkeyes vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction and Picks - December 11, 2025
It's the Big 10 vs the Big 12 College Basketball action on Thursday evening, and we have an Iowa vs Iowa State prediction ready to rock and roll. Iowa checks in at 8-1 on the year, and they are off an 83-64 home win over Maryland. Iowa State is off a stunning 81-58 road win over then #1 Purdue, and they are now a perfect 9-0 on the year. Iowa State won last year's meeting on the road by a score of 89-80. Continue reading to see our Iowa vs Iowa State prediction.
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Hawkeyes Pound The Terps At Home
Iowa’s most recent game was an 83–64 win over Maryland on December 6, where senior guard Bennett Stirtz poured in 25 points on 10-of-17 shooting to lead the way. The Hawkeyes jumped out early, using a 12–0 run in the first half to seize control, and they never looked back. Cooper Koch and Tate Sage chipped in double figures, while Cam Manyawu added 12 points and seven rebounds. It was a bounce-back performance after their lone loss to Michigan State earlier in the week, and it gave first-year head coach Ben McCollum his first Big Ten victory.
Offensively, Iowa has been efficient all season, averaging 79.9 points per game while shooting 51.7% from the field. Stirtz has been the catalyst, scoring nearly 19 points per game and serving as the primary playmaker with almost five assists per contest. Koch has stretched defenses with his perimeter shooting, while Tavion Banks and Alvaro Folgueiras provide balance in the frontcourt. The Hawkeyes share the ball well, ranking 25th nationally in assist rate, and their ability to convert inside the arc (60.6% on two-pointers) has made them difficult to guard.
Defensively, Iowa has quietly been one of the better teams in the country, holding opponents to just 62.6 points per game (12th nationally). They limit opponents to 43.6% shooting and defend the three-point line effectively at 32.1% allowed. The Hawkeyes force nearly 16 turnovers per game, often turning defense into offense, as seen in their 21 points off turnovers against Maryland. Rebounding remains an area of concern, as they were beaten on the glass by the Terrapins, but their defensive rotations and ability to contest shots have kept them in control.
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Iowa State Shocks #1 Purdue On The Road
Iowa State’s most recent game was an 81–58 dismantling of No. 1 Purdue on December 6, a historic road win that marked the Boilermakers’ worst home loss ever as a top-ranked team. Milan Momcilovic led the Cyclones with 20 points, while Killyan Toure added 13 and Blake Buchanan contributed 12 points and nine rebounds. Tamin Lipsey returned from injury to dish out eight assists without a turnover, and Joshua Jefferson knocked down three triples. The Cyclones shot 54% from the field and 48% from deep, silencing Mackey Arena and sending a message nationally.
Offensively, Iowa State has been explosive, averaging 94.6 points per game (7th nationally) while shooting a blistering 54.9% from the field, the best mark in Division I. They’ve been lethal from beyond the arc, hitting 43.8% of their threes, and their balanced attack features four players averaging double figures. Momcilovic has been the go-to scorer, but Jefferson’s versatility and Lipsey’s floor leadership make them multidimensional. The Cyclones also crash the boards hard, pulling down nearly 36 rebounds per game, and their offensive rebounding rate ranks among the best in the country.
Defensively, Iowa State has been just as impressive, holding opponents to 64.6 points per game (20th nationally) and forcing nearly 19 turnovers per contest. Their length and athleticism disrupt passing lanes, and they’ve limited opponents to 41.9% shooting overall. Against Purdue, they held the Boilermakers to just 22% from three and forced 15 turnovers, turning defense into transition opportunities. The Cyclones’ ability to pressure the ball and contest shots makes them one of the most complete teams in the nation, and they’ll look to bring that same intensity against their in-state rivals.
Iowa vs Iowa State Pick
Iowa vs Iowa State Spread Pick
- Iowa +12 (4 Units)
Iowa comes into this rivalry game off an 83–64 win over Maryland on December 6, where Bennett Stirtz carried the offense with 25 points and the Hawkeyes shot better than 50% from the floor. That performance was a reminder of how efficient this team can be when their ball movement clicks — they assisted on 18 of their 27 made field goals and got contributions from multiple spots in the rotation. Stirtz has been the steady hand all season, averaging nearly 19 points and five assists, while Cooper Koch and Tavion Banks give them balance in the frontcourt. Iowa’s offense isn’t flashy, but it’s consistent, and their ability to score inside at a 60.6% clip on two‑pointers makes them tough to completely shut down.
The real reason to like Iowa catching +12 is their defense. The Hawkeyes have held opponents to just 62.6 points per game (12th nationally), limiting teams to 43.6% shooting overall and forcing nearly 16 turnovers a night. That kind of defensive efficiency travels, and it’s exactly what you want in a rivalry spot where emotions run high. Iowa State is coming off a massive 81–58 upset of No. 1 Purdue on December 6, and while their offense has been explosive, averaging 94.6 points per game, it’s hard to expect them to replicate that level of shooting in back‑to‑back games. Iowa’s ability to slow tempo, contest threes, and grind possessions should keep this one tighter than the line suggests. With Stirtz leading the offense and the defense capable of disrupting rhythm, grabbing the +12 feels like a strong position in a rivalry that rarely ends in blowouts.
Iowa vs Iowa State Over/Under Pick
- Under 143 (5 Units)
The Under 143 looks like a sharp play in the Cy-Hawk matchup because both teams bring defensive discipline that can slow the pace. Iowa’s most recent outing was an 83–64 win over Maryland on December 6, where they held the Terps to just 43% shooting and forced 15 turnovers, continuing a season-long trend of keeping opponents under 63 points per game (12th nationally). Iowa State, meanwhile, is coming off an 81–58 upset of No. 1 Purdue on December 6, and while their offense has been explosive at nearly 95 points per game, their defense has been just as strong, limiting opponents to 64.6 points per game (20th nationally) and forcing nearly 19 turnovers a night. Rivalry games often tighten up, and with both teams ranking top‑20 nationally in points allowed, this one sets up for a grind that favors the Under 143.
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