Kansas State vs. Indiana Prediction and Picks for Tuesday, November 25th, 2025
Use Code SSWC Thanksgiving week always features a ton of fantastic non-conference college hoops, and one of the marquee contests on Tuesday pits the Kansas State Wildcats (5-1) against the Indiana Hoosiers (5-0). We’ve got you covered with our Kansas State vs. Indiana prediction. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 ET from Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, IN. Read on for free NCAAB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Wildcats Lose a Neutral Site Game to the Huskers
This is the fourth year of the Jerome Tang era for the Kansas State Wildcats men’s basketball program, and it feels like an eternity ago when they made their Elite Eight run back in 2022-23 – especially when you factor in last season’s ugly 16-17 (9-11 Big 12) campaign. Kansas State is off to a solid 5-1 start this season. They won their first five games against UNC Greensboro (93-64), Bellarmine (98-71), California (99-96), Tulsa (84-83), and Mississippi State (98-77), but suffered a loss to Nebraska (86-85) last time out. The outlook this season is average, as the Wildcats are projected to finish ninth out of 16 teams in the Big 12, per the preseason coaches’ poll. The sports betting market is a bit more pessimistic, with K-State having the 11th-shortest price (+8000) to win the conference title.
In terms of personnel, it’s going to be star guard P.J. Haggerty leading the way this season. He was named to the Preseason All-Big 12 Team, and he’s leading the Cats in both scoring (28.0 PPG) and assists (6.3 APG) through five games. Abdi Bashir Jr. (14.3 PPG) and Nate Johnson (13.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.5 SPG) join Haggerty in a veteran backcourt that’ll be the backbone of the team in 2025-26.
- KenPom has the Wildcats ranked 49th in the country in adjusted efficiency margin (+15.43).
- So far in 2025-26, Kansas State is scoring 92.8 points per game, which is the 31st-best mark among D1 schools.
- The offense is shooting 52.1% from the field (22nd) and 43.3% from three-point range (ninth).
Hoosiers Handle the Lions, Move to 5-0
Meanwhile, it’s a new era in Bloomington, as the Indiana Hoosiers welcome in Coach Darian DeVries. Coach DeVries’ most notable accomplishments come from his time at Drake, where he took the program to the NCAA tournament three times in his final four seasons. He inherits an Indiana squad that went 19-13 (10-10 Big Ten) under Mike Woodson last season. The preseason Big Ten poll projects the Hoosiers to place 10th in the conference standings. That’s on par with the betting market, which issues Indiana the 10th-shortest odds (+2000) to win the conference title. Indiana hasn’t given us any reason to doubt them just yet, as they’re 5-0 out of the gate. Indiana has taken care of Alabama A&M (98-51), Marquette (100-77), Milwaukee (101-70), Incarnate Word (69-61), and Lindenwood (73-53), most recently.
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With the coaching change, there was quite a bit of roster turnover. Tucker DeVries, a transfer from West Virginia and the coach's son, is the leading scorer with 19.2 points per game. Tayton Conerway runs things in the backcourt, and he’s averaging 11.0 points per contest while dishing out a team-leading 6.0 assists per night. Sam Alexis (11.4 PPG), 7.0 RPG, 1.6 BPG) joins DeVries down low.
- The Hoosiers enter this game with an adjusted efficiency margin of +20.57 at KenPom (23rd).
- Indiana is tallying 88.2 points per game (63rd).
- They’re shooting 50% from the field (48th) and hitting 39.4% of their triples (32nd).
Key Injury Report for Indiana:
- F Josh Harris (undisclosed) is out indefinitely. Averaged 13.4 points per game at North Florida last season.
- G Jason Drake (undisclosed) is out indefinitely. Averages 10.6ppg at Drexel last season.
Kansas State vs. Indiana Pick
Spread Pick for Kansas State vs. Indiana
- Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-120) (5 units)
Indiana is the higher-ranked team from a power ratings perspective. KenPom gives Indiana an adjusted efficiency margin of +20.57 and Kansas State a rating of +15.43. That suggests the Hoosiers would be a 5.13-point favorite on a neutral court, and when factoring in the homecourt edge, this number of Indiana -7.5 starts to feel fair. With all of that being said, I’m going to lay the points with Indiana in this one.
This will be Kansas State’s first true road game of the season, and I’m willing to fade them as they make the trip to the hostile Assembly Hall in Bloomington. My biggest concern for K-State is that they seem like a one-man show with P.J. Haggerty. He’s averaging 28.0 PPG, while no other teammate is putting up more than 14.5 PPG. That’s not a great recipe when taking on a top-25 defense on the road. If Haggerty goes cold or if the Hoosiers lock him down, this game could get out of hand. K-State is just 3-17 SU in its last 20 road games, and they’re also 3-6 ATS in their last nine contests dating back to last season.
Over/Under Pick for Kansas State vs. Indiana
- Over 155.0 (-110) (5 units)
This is a clash of styles between two programs that prefer to play at completely different paces. However, considering the offensive success that each team has had out of the gate, I think it’s best to play the over. Kansas State is on a 6-0 run to the over this season, which has been propelled by its elite offense. The Wildcats are 22nd in field goal rate (52.1%) and ninth in three-point shooting (43.3%).
Kansas State’s biggest liability is its defense, which ranks 88th in adjusted efficiency, allowing 102.7 points per 100 possessions. The Wildcats are 27th in adjusted tempo, using 73.4 possessions per 40 minutes. With Kansas State’s defense not being reliable, I think it’ll allow for Indiana to score at will. The Hoosiers are putting up 88.2 points per game (63rd) and shooting 50% from the field (48th). They should have no issues shredding this K-State defense. I’ll predict an 85-76 final in favor of the home team.
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