Kentucky vs. Louisville, Picks and Prediction, Tuesday, November 11, 2025
One of the best non-conference rivalries in college basketball is set to take place in this Kentucky vs. Louisville prediction. Kentucky is 2-0 and ranked ninth in the nation. They'll travel to the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville (2-0) to take ont the No. 11 Cardinals on Tuesday night at 7pmET. Both teams are dealing with injuries, and neither has been tested thus far in their opening two games. Last season, Kentucky was victorious at home, beating the Cardinals 93-85, but didn't cover the 10-point spread. This is just one game on Stat Salt and check out our other free picks for college basketball and other sports.
Quick Picks and Prediction on Kentucky vs. Louisville
If you're in a hurry, here is a quick guide to what you're looking for.
- Kentucky 98-Louisville 92
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Kentucky vs. Louisville Odds and Line Movement
The line movement for Kentucky vs. Louisville and the opening odds for Kentucky vs. Louisville are listed below.
- Louisville -2.5 (-105)
- Total 169.5 (-110)
Money Line
- Kentucky +136
- Louisville -164
(odds from FanDuel)
Opening Odds for Louisville vs. Kentucky
- On Sunday, the odds opened at Louisville -4.5 (-105).
- The total opened at 169.5 (-110)
- The Money Line opened at Louisville -220, Kentucky +180
Louisville vs. Kentucky Line Movement
- The line opened at Louisville -4.5 and jumped to -2.5 on Monday afternoon.
- The total has not moved much, jumping from 168.5 to 169.5.
- The Money Line took the biggest jump from Louisville -220 to -164 and Kentucky +180 to +136.
Key Matchups for Kentucky vs. Louisville
Wildcats look to improve from last season
Huge expectations in Lexington as always after the Wildcats finished 24-12 and just 10-8 in the SEC last season. That's with just one starter returning. Head coach Mark Pope brought in a talented roster, including a bunch of transfers. One of them, C Jayden Quaintance (9.4ppg, 7.9rpg) from Arizona State, is coming off a knee injury in February and hasn't played yet. They opened with a 77-51 win over Nicholls on Monday and a 107-59 victory on Nov. 7 over Valparaiso. In the win over Valpao, Malachai Moreno scored 18 points and grabbed 10 boards off the bench. Kentucky, which scored 58 points at the half, has six players score in double figures and shot 54% from the field.
Guard Collin Chandler, one of the few returning players from last season, leads Kentucky with 14.5 points per game and adds 4.0 assists, while shooting 53.3% from long range. Guard Otege Oweh is the only returning starter, who adds 14 points and 4.0 rebounds, while shooting 52.6% from the field and 40% from long range.
Cards get first test
Louisville went 27-8 and 18-2 in the ACC in Pat Kelsey's first season, and that was quite the accomplishment considering they also had to deal with numerous injuries. Louisville has had no problems with South Carolina State (104-45) on Nov. 3 and Jacksonville State (106-70) on Nov. 6, so this will be the first major test.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sean Higgs | +1,222.00 |
| 2 |  Rob Vinciletti | +809.00 |
| 3 |  Joe Duffy | +666.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +579.00 |
| 5 |  David Hess | +572.00 |
Khani Rooths leads the Cards with 18 points and 8.5 rebounds on 61.9% shooting from the field. Rooths is a 6-10 sophomore who came off the bench last season. Guard Ryan Conwell is a transfer from Xavier, who adds 15.5 points and 5.5 rebounds, while shooting 443.8% from the field and 41.7% from long range. Freshman Mikel Brown (6-5, 180) adds 14.5 points and 7.5 assists, but also has committed 4.5 turnovers per game.
Betting Trends for Louisville vs. Kentucky
Kentucky is:
- 10-3 ATS last 13 against Louisville
- 4-1 Over last 5 vs. Louisville
Louisville is:
- 2-4 ATS last 6 games
- 4-2 Over last 6 games.
Key Injuries and Analysis for Kentucky vs Louisville
Kentucky:
- F Trent Noah (leg) is questionable. He sprained his ankle in the Nicholls' game and did not play against Valpo. Noah is considered one of Kentucky's best 3-point shooters
- Jayden Quaintance (knee) is listed as questionable. Was a big-time rebounder at Arizona State. Hasn't played yet.
Louisville:
- F Mouhamed Camara (undisclosed) is ? Fershman is 6-8, 225 and athletic. Hasn't played yet
- G J'Vonne Hadley (concussion) is questionable. Hadley had 13 points and nine rebounds in the opener and averaged 12.2 ppg and 7.3rpg last season.
Kentucky vs. Louisville ATS and Over/Under Betting Picks
Kentucky has the better team, as Mark Pope has put together an incredible roster of size and athleticism. Mareno is a 6-11, 230-pound freshman with great potential. I'm concerned about Louisville's freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr., who struggled with turnovers against sub-par mid-majors. He's going to struggle against Kentucky's tough defense and long athletes. The pick and total are listed below.
Kentucky vs. Louisville
- Kentucky +2.5 (4 units)
Total for Kentucky vs. Louisville
- Over 169.5 (4 units)
Kentucky vs. Louisville Final Score Prediction
- Kentucky 98-Louisville 92
This will not be a boring game. The Wildcats are shooting 50.8% from the field. Louisville is shooting just 33.8% from three-point range against two bad teams. That's a concern after shooting just 32.8% from long range last season. Kentucky shot 37.5% from long range last season. Louisville has a lot of talent, but its young point guard will struggle in this one. Kentucky is 171st in pace of play and Louisville is 37th, but that's a bit misleading considering the teams they play. This will be a high-scoring game at a fast pace with two quality offensive teams.
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