Little Rock Trojans vs West Virginia Mountaineers Prediction and Picks - December 9, 2025
College Basketball action on Tuesday evening, and we have a Little Rock vs West Virginia prediction ready to rock and roll. The Trojans enter this game off a 90-78 home loss to Arkansas State to fall to 2-7 on the year. West Virginia checks in at 7-3 on the year, and they are off a 75-66 loss to Wake Forest. Continue reading to see our Little Rock vs West Virginia prediction.
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Defense Struggles In Loss To Arkansas State
Little Rock’s most recent game was a 90–78 loss to Arkansas State on December 6, where senior guard Johnathan Lawson exploded for 33 points but the Trojans couldn’t overcome defensive lapses that allowed the Red Wolves to shoot nearly 50% from the field. It was another tough outing for a team that has struggled to string together consistent performances, dropping them to 2–7 overall.
Offensively, the Trojans average just 66.1 points per game, shooting 45.7% from the field but only 56.2% from the free‑throw line, which has been a major issue in close contests. Lawson leads the way at 14.4 points per game, while Cameron Wallace and Kachi Nzeh provide secondary scoring options. The team does shoot the three well at 38.9%, ranking among the better marks nationally, but their low volume of attempts limits the impact. Ball movement has been decent at 13.8 assists per game, yet turnovers (16.4 per game) remain a glaring weakness.
Defensively, Little Rock has been porous, allowing 78.8 points per game and opponents to shoot 49.9% from the field. They’ve struggled to defend the perimeter, giving up nearly 39% from three, and their rebounding numbers (31.0 per game) leave them undersized against bigger frontcourts. Lawson’s scoring punch keeps them competitive, but the Trojans’ inability to close possessions and protect the paint has been their undoing. Heading into Morgantown, they’ll need a near‑perfect effort to hang with West Virginia.
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Tough Loss To Wake Forest
West Virginia dropped its last outing, a 75–66 loss to Wake Forest on December 6, where Honor Huff scored 24 points and Chance Moore added 16 with eight rebounds, but the Mountaineers couldn’t overcome Juke Harris’ hot shooting night as he buried seven threes for the Demon Deacons. The game was tied at halftime after WVU rallied from a double‑digit deficit, but turnovers and cold shooting in the second half doomed them. That setback left the Mountaineers at 7–3 overall heading into their matchup with Little Rock.
Offensively, West Virginia averages 72.6 points per game, shooting 44.2% from the field and 31.9% from three. Huff has been the clear leader, putting up 16.6 points per game and showing he can carry the offense when needed, while Moore provides another double‑digit scoring option with his rebounding presence. Brenen Lorient and Jackson Fields add interior scoring and toughness, but free‑throw shooting has been shaky at 68.3%, which has cost them in tight games. The Mountaineers rely on balance rather than explosive scoring, and their ability to generate second‑chance looks through rebounding (36.4 per game) helps keep them afloat offensively.
Defensively, WVU has been one of the stingiest teams in the country, allowing just 58.4 points per game and holding opponents to 39.7% shooting. They rank among the nation’s best in limiting field‑goal attempts and controlling the glass, giving up only 31.7 rebounds per game. Jasper Floyd and Huff provide perimeter pressure, while Harlan Obioha anchors the paint with his size. The Mountaineers’ defense is their identity, and even in the loss to Wake Forest, they forced 11 turnovers and battled on the boards. Heading into the Little Rock matchup, West Virginia will look to bounce back by leaning on that defensive backbone, knowing their offense can be streaky but their ability to grind games down makes them tough to beat at home.
Little Rock vs West Virginia Pick
Little Rock vs West Virginia Spread Pick
- West Virginia -23.5 (5 Units)
West Virginia -23.5 makes sense when you look at how dominant their defense has been compared to Little Rock’s struggles. The Mountaineers are coming off a 75–66 loss to Wake Forest on December 6, but even in defeat they held the Demon Deacons to 42% shooting and forced 11 turnovers. For the season, WVU allows just 58.4 points per game and keeps opponents under 40% from the field, ranking among the nation’s best in defensive efficiency. Honor Huff leads the offense at 16.6 points per game, while Chance Moore and Brenen Lorient provide steady scoring and rebounding. At home, where they’ve been consistently strong, West Virginia’s ability to grind down opponents and control tempo makes them a tough cover for any mid‑major team.
Little Rock, meanwhile, has been overwhelmed defensively, giving up 78.8 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot nearly 50% from the field. Their offense averages just 66.1 points per game, and while Johnathan Lawson has been a bright spot at 14.4 points per game, the Trojans lack the depth and efficiency to keep pace with a team like WVU. They turn the ball over more than 16 times per game and shoot only 56% from the free‑throw line, which makes it difficult to close gaps once they fall behind. Against a Mountaineers squad that thrives on suffocating defense and balanced scoring, the mismatch is clear. Laying the big number with West Virginia is justified, as their defensive pressure and rebounding edge should create separation early and keep Little Rock from threatening late.
Little Rock vs West Virginia Over/Under Pick
- Under 130.5 (4 Units)
The Under 130.5 lines up well in Little Rock–West Virginia because of the stark contrast between WVU’s suffocating defense and Little Rock’s offensive limitations. The Mountaineers just held Wake Forest to 75 points on December 6, and for the season they allow only 58.4 points per game while keeping opponents under 40% shooting. Little Rock, meanwhile, averages just 66.1 points per game and shoots a dreadful 56% from the free‑throw line, making it hard to capitalize on scoring chances. With West Virginia’s ability to grind games down and Little Rock’s tendency to stall offensively, this matchup projects as one where possessions are long, points are scarce, and the total stays below 130.5.
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