Louisville vs. Cincinnati, Picks and Prediction, Friday, November 21, 2025
Use Code SSWC Two undefeated teams meet on Friday night in this Louisville vs. Cincinnati prediction at the Hoops Classic. No. 6 Louisville (4-0) has won all four games thus far, including a 96-88 victory over rival Kentucky on Nov. 11 as a 6-point home favorite. The Bearcats are also 4-0, having defeated rival Dayton on the same date 74-62 as a 6.5-point home favorite. These two schools are about 100 miles apart and used to be rivals in the old Metro Conference, the Big East and Conference USA. They have not played since 2022, when the Bearcats dominated the game 81-62. Check out more college hoops picks and other sports on Stat Salt for Friday and this weekend.
Kelsey brings energy to Louisville
Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey took over the job last season and went 27-8 (16-3 ACC) and the only disappointing thing came in the NCAA Tournament when they fell apart against Creighton. The expectations are even higher this season with some players returning, led by J'Vonne Hadley, who scored 11 points in the Cards' 106-81 win over Ohio on Nov. 15 in their last game.
Louisville shot just 32.8% from the field in their last game and brought in some help from transfers Isaac McNeely (14.4ppg at Virginia) and Ryan Conwell (16.2ppg at Xavier), who have had strong starts. Conwell, a 6-4 guard, leads the Cardinals with 19.2 points per game on 43.8% from long range. McKneely (6-4, 195) is averaging 12.2 points per game and is shooting 41.2% from long range.
The Cards are ranked 10th on KenPom with a 308th SOS rating, an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rating of 2 and an Adjusted Defensive rating of 58.
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Bearcats looking to improve in the Big 12
The Bearcats have been in the Big 12 now for two seasons, and last year was a struggle as they went 7-13 in the league. Of course, these conference realignment moves are usually made for football, and the basketball teams take the brunt of it. But the Cincinnati program will do fine as they've had tremendous success over the years. Wes Miller's squad returned just one player (Day Day Thomas), and they are basically starting over with transfers.
One of the transfers leads the Bearcats in scoring, and that's Baba Miller (6-11, 225), who averaged 11.3 points at FAU last season. He's leading Cincy with 15.8 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.2 blocks, while shooting 66.7% from the field. He had 13 points and 11 rebounds in the Bearcats' previous game, a 72-55 win over Mount Saint Mary's, as a 25-point favorite.
Freshman Shon Abaev (6-8, 210) is a McDonald's All-American and highly regarded wing, who is averaging 11.2 points per game but is struggling from long distance (4-of-20). KenPom has the Bearcats ranked 41st overall and second in Adjusted Defensive Rating.
Key Injury Report for Cincinnati:
- F Jalen Haynes (lower body) is out. Averaged 13.5 points and 7.2 rebounds for George Mason last year.
Spread Pick for Louisville vs. Cincinnati
Louisville vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Pick
- Cincinnati +8 (4 units)
This is defense vs. offense in this matchup. Cincinnati is home, so they will dictate the pace more. Cincy holds teams to just 35.6% from the field and 27% from three-point range. The Bearcats know who the shooters are at Louisville and will be all over them. Louisville is talented, but this is their first road contest of the season, and it will be a tough one. The Bearcats could also steal this game outright, but they will at least cover as a home dog.
- Under 162.5 (5 units)
Wes Miller knows that he can't get into a shootout with Louisville. This team has been running in the early going but they've also had a soft schedule (282nd) just like Louisville. Despite the faster pace, Cincinnati has gone under in their last three games and held teams to just 61 points per game. Louisville's defense has been no joke thus far, at 38.9% field goal percentage defense.
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