Memphis Tigers vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction and Picks - December 13, 2025
It's the AAC vs the ACC on Saturday afternoon, and we have a Memphis vs Louisville prediction ready to rock and roll. Memphis enters this contest off a 78-71 home win over Baylor to improve to 4-4 on the year. Louisville has gone 8-1 out of the gate, and they are off an 87-78 road win over Indiana. These teams last met back in 2017 and Louisville won that game at home by a score of 81-72. Continue reading to see our Memphis vs Louisville prediction.
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Tigers Surprise Baylor At Home
Memphis’ most recent game was a 78–71 win over Baylor on December 7, where Zachary Davis had a breakout performance with 23 points and 13 rebounds, while Aaron Bradshaw added 17 points and seven boards. The Tigers shot just 41% from the field and only 3-for-16 from three, but they made up for it by hitting 19 of 25 free throws and dominating the offensive glass with 15 second-chance boards. Penny Hardaway’s team forced 13 turnovers and held Baylor to 34% shooting, showing grit and resilience in a game they badly needed to win.
Offensively, Memphis averages 76 points per game while shooting 43.2% from the field. Dug McDaniel has been the steady hand at point guard, averaging 13.9 points and 6.4 assists, while Davis has emerged as a versatile scorer and rebounder. Sincere Parker and Julius Thedford provide secondary scoring options, and Bradshaw’s size at 7-foot gives them a reliable interior presence. The Tigers aren’t a high-volume three-point team, but they get to the line often and crash the boards hard, ranking among the nation’s leaders in offensive rebounding.
Defensively, Memphis allows 74.1 points per game and opponents shoot 41.3%, with teams hitting 31.8% from deep. They force about 12.5 turnovers per game and average 8.3 steals, leaning on pressure defense to create opportunities. While foul trouble has been an issue — committing over 20 fouls per game — their ability to disrupt rhythm and win the rebounding battle has kept them competitive. Against Louisville’s high-powered offense, Memphis will need McDaniel’s leadership and Davis’ energy to keep pace.
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Louisville Was Too Much For Indiana To Handle
Louisville’s most recent game was an 87–78 win over Indiana on December 6, where Ryan Conwell scored 21 points and Isaac McKneely added 15. The Cardinals shot 46% from the field and buried 13 threes, while also hitting 24 of 28 free throws. They built a 14-point halftime lead and held off Indiana’s late push, bouncing back from their first loss of the season at Arkansas. It was another showcase of their perimeter firepower, which has been among the best in the country.
Offensively, Louisville averages 93.8 points per game while shooting 47.2% from the field. Conwell leads the team with 19.7 points per game and is hitting over 42% from three, while freshman Mikel Brown Jr. has been outstanding at point guard with 16.7 points and 5.3 assists. McKneely adds 12.4 points per game, and Sananda Fru provides size and rebounding inside. The Cardinals rank third nationally in made threes per game (12.7), and their ability to spread the floor makes them extremely difficult to guard.
Defensively, Louisville allows just 67.6 points per game and opponents shoot 37.4%, one of the best marks in the country. They rebound at a high level (43.6 boards per game) and force over 14 turnovers per contest, using their length and athleticism to pressure ball-handlers. While they commit nearly 20 fouls per game, their depth and ability to rotate fresh bodies has minimized the damage. Against Memphis, Louisville’s perimeter shooting and defensive discipline will be key, as they look to extend their dominance at home where they are unbeaten this season.
Memphis vs Louisville Pick
Memphis vs Louisville Spread Pick
- Louisville -16 (4 Units)
Louisville laying -16 looks justified given how explosive their offense has been and how well they’ve handled opponents at home. Their most recent game was an 87–78 win over Indiana on December 6, where Ryan Conwell scored 21 points and Isaac McKneely added 15 as the Cardinals buried 13 threes and hit 24 of 28 free throws. Louisville averages 93.8 points per game and shoots nearly 47% from the field, with Conwell and freshman Mikel Brown Jr. forming one of the most dangerous backcourts in the country. With their ability to spread the floor and punish defenses from deep, Louisville has consistently built early leads and forced opponents to play catch-up.
Memphis, meanwhile, is coming off a 78–71 win over Baylor on December 7, where Zachary Davis had 23 points and 13 rebounds, but the Tigers shot just 41% overall and 19% from three. Memphis averages 76 points per game but allows 74.1, and their tendency to foul (over 20 per game) is a major concern against a Louisville team that thrives at the free-throw line. While Dug McDaniel provides steady playmaking and Davis has emerged as a reliable scorer, the Tigers’ inconsistency from the perimeter and defensive lapses make them vulnerable against elite competition. With Louisville’s depth, shooting, and defensive discipline, laying -16 feels like the right side, as the Cardinals have the tools to pull away and cover comfortably.
Memphis vs Louisville Over/Under Pick
- Over 160 (5 Units)
The Over 160 feels like the right play in Memphis–Louisville because both teams bring pace and scoring depth that should push this game into the 160s. Louisville’s most recent game was an 87–78 win over Indiana on December 6, where Ryan Conwell scored 21 and the Cardinals buried 13 threes while hitting 24 of 28 free throws. They average 93.8 points per game and rank among the nation’s leaders in made threes, with Conwell and freshman Mikel Brown Jr. driving one of the most explosive backcourts in college basketball. Memphis, meanwhile, is coming off a 78–71 win over Baylor on December 7, where Zachary Davis had 23 points and 13 rebounds, and the Tigers showed their ability to crash the offensive glass and generate second-chance points. Memphis averages 76 points per game but also allows 74.1, which sets up perfectly for Louisville’s firepower to dictate tempo. With both teams capable of scoring in bunches and Memphis prone to defensive lapses, the Over 160 looks well within reach.
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