Michigan State Spartans vs Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction and Picks - December 13, 2025
Saturday afternoon Big 10 college hoops action, and we have a Michigan State vs Penn State prediction ready to rock and roll. Michigan State comes off a tough 66-60 loss to Duke to fall to 8-1 on the year. Penn State was demolished by Indiana 113-72 in their last game, which dropped them to 8-2 on the year. The Spartans won last year's meeting 90-85 at home. It was their 4th win in a row in the series. Continue reading to see our Michigan State vs Penn State prediction.
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Sparty Suffers 1st Loss Of The Year
Michigan State’s most recent game was a 66–60 loss to Duke on December 6, where Carson Cooper turned in a monster performance with 16 points and 16 rebounds, but the Spartans shot just 31.8% from the field and couldn’t overcome Duke’s late surge. It was their first defeat of the season after an 8–0 start, and the game highlighted both their strengths and weaknesses: they can dominate the glass and defend at a high level, but when their perimeter shooting goes cold, they struggle to generate enough offense against elite competition. That setback now sets the stage for their Big Ten opener against Penn State, where Tom Izzo’s group will be looking to reassert its identity and prove that the Duke loss was more of a blip than a trend.
The Spartans’ offense has been steady but not explosive, averaging 76.6 points per game while shooting 45.5% overall. Jaxon Kohler has emerged as their most reliable scorer, putting up 14.2 points and 9.6 rebounds per game, while Jeremy Fears Jr. has been one of the nation’s best facilitators, averaging nearly 10 assists per game. Coen Carr adds athleticism and scoring on the wing, and Cooper has proven to be a dependable presence in the paint. Michigan State doesn’t rely heavily on the three, hitting just 6.8 per game at 33.7%, but their ball movement and rebounding give them plenty of second-chance opportunities.
Defensively, Michigan State has been elite, holding opponents to just 61 points per game (8th nationally) and limiting teams to 38% shooting. They rebound at a high level (41.8 boards per game) and force opponents into tough looks, particularly from deep where they allow just 28.6%. Izzo’s team thrives on discipline and physicality, and with their depth and defensive identity, they’ll look to control tempo against a Penn State squad that prefers to push the pace.
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Nittany Lions Get Obliterated By Indiana
Penn State’s most recent game was a 113–72 loss at Indiana on December 9, where freshman Kayden Mingo scored 19 points but the Hoosiers shot nearly 69% from the field and buried 17 threes. It was a humbling defeat for the Nittany Lions, who had won three straight prior, and it exposed their defensive vulnerabilities against high-major competition. The loss also underscored how much this young roster still has to learn about consistency, especially when facing teams that can punish them inside and out. Heading into the matchup with Michigan State, Penn State will be eager to prove that the Indiana game was more about one bad night than a reflection of their overall trajectory.
Offensively, Penn State has been productive, averaging 82 points per game while shooting 50.3% from the field. Mingo has been the standout, scoring 15.4 points per game while adding 4 assists and nearly 4 rebounds. Freddie Dilione and freshman Melih Tunca provide additional scoring punch, combining for over 25 points per game, while Josh Reed and Ivan Juric add size and balance in the frontcourt. The Nittany Lions shoot 37% from three and hit free throws at a 71% clip, giving them multiple ways to score.
Defensively, however, Penn State has struggled, allowing 74.3 points per game and opponents to shoot nearly 48% from the field. They’ve been particularly vulnerable from deep, giving up 9.1 threes per game at 35.4%, and their rebounding numbers (31.9 per game) lag behind most Big Ten teams. Mike Rhoades is leaning heavily on a young roster with eight freshmen, and while the offensive talent is clear, the defensive lapses have been costly. Against Michigan State’s disciplined attack, Penn State will need to tighten up defensively and rely on Mingo’s playmaking to keep pace.
Michigan State vs Penn State Pick
Michigan State vs Penn State Spread Pick
- Michigan State -12.5 (4 Units)
Michigan State looks like the right side here laying -12.5, especially given how their defense matches up against Penn State’s youth and inconsistency. The Spartans’ most recent game was a 66–60 loss to Duke on December 6, where Carson Cooper posted 16 points and 16 rebounds but the team shot just 31.8% overall. Even in defeat, Michigan State showed its identity: rebounding dominance, physical defense, and a willingness to grind games down. They’re holding opponents to just 61 points per game (8th nationally) and limiting teams to 38% shooting, which is exactly the kind of profile that covers double-digit spreads when facing a team that struggles to generate consistent offense. With Jaxon Kohler and Jeremy Fears Jr. leading the way, the Spartans have the balance to control tempo and wear down Penn State over 40 minutes.
Penn State, meanwhile, is coming off a 113–72 loss at Indiana on December 9, where freshman Kayden Mingo scored 19 points but the Hoosiers shot nearly 69% from the field and buried 17 threes. That game highlighted the Nittany Lions’ biggest issue: defense. They allow 74.3 points per game and opponents are hitting nearly 48% from the field, which is a dangerous combination against a disciplined Michigan State team. While Penn State has offensive talent with Mingo, Freddie Dilione, and Melih Tunca, their lack of defensive structure and rebounding (just 31.9 boards per game) makes them vulnerable to being outmuscled in conference play. Given Michigan State’s ability to control the glass and force tough shots, laying -12.5 feels justified, as the Spartans should be able to pull away and cover comfortably.
Michigan State vs Penn State Over/Under Pick
- Over 144.5 (5 Units)
The Over 144.5 looks appealing in Michigan State–Penn State because of the contrast in styles and the way both teams have been trending. Michigan State’s most recent game was a 66–60 loss to Duke on December 6, where they struggled offensively but still showed their ability to push pace when shots are falling, averaging 76.6 points per game on the season. Penn State, meanwhile, is coming off a 113–72 loss at Indiana on December 9, and while their defense was shredded, they still managed to score 72 points thanks to freshman Kayden Mingo’s 19. The Nittany Lions average 82 points per game and shoot over 50% from the field, while Michigan State’s balanced attack has multiple scoring options led by Jaxon Kohler and Jeremy Fears Jr. With Penn State’s defensive lapses and Michigan State’s ability to exploit them, this matchup sets up for a faster pace and enough offensive production on both sides to push the total past 144.5.
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