Michigan State vs Duke Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, November 10, 2026

The 6th-ranked Michigan State Spartans play the 2nd-ranked Duke Blue Devils at the United Center in Chicago on Tuesday in the State Farm Champions Classic. Michigan State beat Toledo last Thursday 91-61 for its second straight win to open the season. Duke routed Coastal Carolina 113-52 and has also opened the season with a pair of victories. Tipoff is at 7:00 pm ET on ESPN. Duke is favored by 6.5 points, with the total at 148.5. Get ready for tipoff with our free college basketball picks.

Michigan State Ready for a Bigger Challenge

Michigan easily took care of Toledo last week, winning by 30 points. The Spartans were down 2-0 in the opening seconds of the game, but rattled off 17 unanswered points and never looked back. Michigan State led by 23 at the half. Freshman Jasiah Jervis scored 16 points to lead the Spartans' attack, while Jordan Scott added 12 points, nine rebounds, and five assists. Michigan State outrebounded Toledo 52-27 and scored 27 second-chance points. The Spartans are averaging 93.5 points per game while giving up 60.0.

Jeremy Fears Jr. averages 12.5 points and 10.0 assists per game, leading the Spartans in both. Scott is averaging 11.5 points, and Anton Bonke leads the team with an average of 10.0 rebounds. The Spartans have shot 54.6% from the field through two games and average 49.0 rebounds. Michigan State has dominated inside, although Duke's size should make those baskets harder to come by.

Injuries: No injuries reported.

Duke Making an Early Impression

Duke easily defeated a lesser-talented Coastal Carolina squad last Thursday, opening the game with 16 straight points and eventually winning by 61 points. Patrick Ngonba II scored 28 points, a career high, to lead the Blue Devils and grabbed nine rebounds. Duke allowed just 18 first-half points and led by 36 at the break. Duke opened the season by beating Army 84-50 and now averages 98.5 points while allowing just 51.0 per game.

Ngongba leads Duke with 19.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. Dame Sarr is second in scoring at 14.0 and has been strong defensively. Cayden Boozer runs the offense with 7.5 assists, giving Duke a reliable playmaker when defenders crowd the paint. The Blue Devils average 14.0 steals and 7.5 blocks, numbers reflecting how difficult they've been to attack. Michigan State won't be intimidated by size, but Duke has enough length to make every trip to the basket difficult.

Injuries: No injuries reported.

Key To The Game

Rebounding could decide how long Michigan State stays close. The Spartans collect 49.0 boards per game and punished Toledo for giving them second chances. Duke grabs 45.0 and has plenty of rim protection among its big men. If Ngongba holds his ground against Bonke, the Blue Devils can turn the contest in their favor early and win comfortably.

Michigan State vs Duke Game Pick

• Duke Blue Devils -6.5

Michigan State's work on the glass deserves respect, particularly after that 52-27 advantage over Toledo. Duke presents a different challenge. Ngongba averages 19.0 points and eight rebounds, and Boozer's 7.5 assists help the Blue Devils move the ball before defenses get set. The Spartans have Fears running their offense, but Duke's 14.0 steals per game could turn loose passes into quick points. The early competition hasn't tested either side much. Still, Duke has enough defensive length and scoring options to create separation. I'm taking the Blue Devils to cover.

Michigan State vs Duke Over/Under Pick

• Under 148.5

The two offenses have piled up points, but neither has faced a defense like the one waiting Tuesday. Michigan State allows just 60.0 points per game; Duke gives up 51.0. Those numbers came against weaker early opponents, yet both teams have shown they can defend without relying on hot shooting. The Spartans should try to control the boards and avoid giving Duke extra possessions. Ngongba can score inside, but Michigan State has the size to make him work. Expect a more physical, deliberate contest than either team's opening games. Under 148.5 is my pick.