Michigan State vs. Kentucky, Picks and Prediction, Tuesday, November 18, 2025
The Champions Classic features a blue-blood matchup in this Michigan State vs. Kentucky prediction. Kentucky is ranked 12th and owns a 3-1 record. They'll face the No. 17 Michigan State Spartans (3-0) on Tuesday night from New York City. These teams last met in 2022, with the Spartans winning in overtime 86-77. Check out this MSU vs. Kentucky prediction and other strong college basketball picks on Stat Salt.
Quick Picks and Prediction on Michigan State vs. Kentucky
If you're in a hurry, here is a quick guide to what you're looking for.
- Kentucky 74-Michigan State 71
- Michigan State +5.5
- Under 154.5
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Kentucky vs. Michigan State Odds and Line Movement
Check out our opening odds from Michigan State vs. Kentucky and line moves in the spread, total and money line.
Opening Odds for Michigan State vs. Kentucky
- Spread: Michigan State +4.5 (-110)/Kentucky -4.5 (-110)
- ML: Michigan State +215/Kentucky -265
- Total: o52.5 (-110)/u152.5 (-110)
(odds from Caesars Sportsbook)
Kentucky vs. Michigan State Line Movement
- Spread: Michigan State +4.5 (-110)/Kentucky -4.5 (-110) moved to MSU +5.5 (-110)/UK -5.5 (-110)
- ML: Michigan State +215/Kentucky -265 moved to MSU +205/UK +250
- Total: o154 (-110)/u154 (-110) moved to o153.5 (-110)/u153.5 (-110)
Key Matchups for Kentucky vs. Michigan State
MSU remains undefeated
Michigan State already faced an SEC squad when they took on Arkansas on Nov. 8 and edged them 69-66 as a 2.5-point favorite. They faced San Jose State last Thursday and took care of business (79-60), but didn't cover the 24 points. Jaxon Kohler led the Spartans with 17 points and 18 rebounds, while Carson Cooper also added 17 points with seven boards on 6-of-7 shooting. This was a very Spartans-like performance at +16 on the boards, but they shot just 23% from beyond the arc (6 of 25).
Kohler (6-10, 245) leads Sparty with 14.3 points and 13.3 rebounds per contest, while shooting just 42.4% from the field. Cooper (6-11, 245) adds 12 points and 5.0 rebounds per contest, while Coen Carr contributes 11.7 points and five rebounds. All three players were recruited by head coach Tom Izzo, who has very few transfers on this roster. Michigan State ranks 33rd on KenPom, 57th in Adjusted Offense and 14th in Adjusted Defense
Wildcats rebound after losing to rival
Kentucky destroyed Eastern Illinois 99-53 on Friday after losing to then No. 12 Louisville 96-88 last Tuesday on the road. Kentucky big man Mouhamed Dioubate led the way with 20 points (8 of 9 FG) and 11 rebounds for the Wildcats against Eastern Illinois. Dioubate is a 6-7, 220-pound forward who is a transfer from Alabama and averaged 7.1 points and 5.9 rebounds in 15.9mpg for the Tide last year. This season, he's averaging 12 points and 6.8 rebounds for Kentucky, while shooting 67.9% from the field in 20mpg.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ricky Tran | +4,662.00 |
| 2 |  Mark Ruelle | +2,307.00 |
| 3 |  Nick Parsons | +2,193.00 |
| 4 |  David Delano | +2,049.00 |
| 5 |  Sean Higgs | +763.00 |
Denzel Aberdeen leads the Wildcats with 15.2 points per game on 56.1% shooting with 3.0 assists and 4.8 rebounds per contest. The Florida transfer averaged 8 points per game in 20.1 mpg last season. They are missing point guard Jalaan Lowe (shoulder), a transfer from Pittsburgh, who averages 7.5 points per game in two contests and produced 16.8 points for the Panthers last season. Kentucky is ranked 4th by KenPom, with an Adjusted Offensive Rating of 8 and 10 in Adjusted Defense. Their strength of schedule ranks 279th.
Betting Trends for Michigan State vs. Kentucky
MSU:
- 4-1 Under last 5 vs. SEC.
Kentucky:
- 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. Big 10.
- 4-2 Over last 6 against MSU
Key Injuries and Analysis for Michigan State vs. Kentucky
Michigan State:
- G Kaleb Glenn (knee) is out for the season. Averaged 12.6 ppg at FAU last season.
Kentucky:
- G Jalaan Lowe (shoulder) is questionable. But might need surgery. Averages 7.5 points per game thus far.
- F Jayden Quaintance (knee) is questionable. Averaged 9.4 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.4 blocks for Arizona State last season.
Michigan State vs. Kentucky ATS and Over/Under Betting Picks
Check out my analysis of the pick and spread below between these two powerhouse teams. Who will cover the spread, the Spartans or Wildcats?
Kentucky vs. Michigan State Spread
- Michigan State +5.5 (5 units)
Total for Michigan State vs. Kentucky
- Under 154.5 (4 units)
Michigan State vs. Kentucky Final Score Prediction
- Kentucky 74-Michigan State 71
Tom Izzo's teams are predictable. They are going to rebound, defend and wear you down. MSU ranks fourth in the nation in rebounding percentage. Kentucky ranks high as well, but they also dominated three lesser teams to make their numbers look better. Most of the Spartans have played with each other for several seasons and that makes a difference against most teams dominated by transfers. Michigan State will control the boards with their size, but the Wildcats have more talent. I see this as a 2-3 point game either way. Take the under as well, with Kentucky ranking 83rd in Adjusted Tempo and Michigan State ranks 268. They are a methodical Big 10 team that wants to bludgeon you with half-court basketball.
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