Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Kansas State Wildcats Prediction and Picks - November 20, 2025
Use Code SSWC Thursday evening on the college hardwood, and we have a Mississippi State vs Kansas State prediction ready to rock and roll. This is part of the Hall Of Fame Classic, which will be played at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. The Bulldogs are off a 75-68 home win over Southeast Louisiana, which puts them at 2-1 on the year. Kansas State comes in at 4-0 on the year and off an 84-83 home win over Tulsa. Continue reading to see our Mississippi State vs Kansas State prediction.
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Bulldogs Hold Off Southeast Louisiana
Mississippi State’s most recent outing came on Nov. 15, 2025, against Southeastern Louisiana, where the Bulldogs secured a 75–68 victory. Shawn Jones paced the offense with 17 points and 6 boards, while Josh Hubbard added 15 points and 4 assists. Achor Achor chipped in seven boards, and the Bulldogs used their size and rebounding edge to control the game late. The win pushed them above .500 and gave them momentum heading into the Hall of Fame Classic matchup with Kansas State.
Mississippi State’s offense has been solid but not overwhelming, averaging 80.3 points per game (174th nationally). Hubbard remains the focal point, scoring 22.3 points per game with efficient shooting and strong free‑throw accuracy. Jones provides balance with 11.7 points and seven rebounds per game, while Achor and Sam Macura add interior strength, each averaging over seven boards. Jaden McGhee contributes 9.3 points per game and defensive energy, giving the Bulldogs multiple scoring outlets. Their rebounding has been a strength, ranking tied for 38th nationally at 44.3 per game, which fuels second‑chance opportunities and transition play.
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Defensively, Mississippi State allows 75.3 points per game, a number that reflects both their pace and occasional lapses in rotations. While they’ve been effective at contesting shots on the perimeter, holding opponents to low three‑point percentages, foul discipline and turnovers remain issues. Hubbard and McGhee provide perimeter steals, but the Bulldogs can be vulnerable in transition defense. Against Kansas State’s efficient shooting attack, Mississippi State will need to lean on their rebounding edge and slow the tempo to avoid trading baskets. Their ability to control possessions and limit Kansas State’s perimeter looks will be critical if they want to stay competitive in this matchup.
Kansas State Wins Close One Against Tulsa
On Nov. 17, 2025, Kansas State edged Tulsa 84–83 in a nail‑biter. PJ Haggerty exploded for 31 points and 10 rebounds, while David Castillo added 15 points, including the game‑winning layup in the final seconds. Nae’Qwan Johnson chipped in 14 points and seven boards, and Keyontae McGriff scored 12 on 5‑of‑6 shooting. The Wildcats shot 44% overall but struggled from deep (5‑for‑24), relying heavily on Haggerty’s second‑half takeover to secure the win.
Kansas State’s offense has been one of the most efficient in the country, averaging 93.5 points per game while ranking top‑10 nationally in both field‑goal percentage (54.7%) and three‑point shooting (45.7%). Haggerty has emerged as the breakout star, putting up 26 points per game with the ability to score at all three levels. Johnson adds balance with 14 points and seven rebounds, while McGriff provides interior scoring at 13.5 points per game on nearly 79% shooting. Castillo has been another key weapon, averaging 13.5 points while hitting 61% of his threes, and Arthur Bashir chips in 12 points per game with steady playmaking. Their spacing and ball movement consistently generate high‑percentage looks, making them one of the most dangerous shooting teams in the country.
Defensively, Kansas State allows 78.5 points per game, ranking 190th, with opponents shooting 45.2% overall. Their perimeter defense has been inconsistent, giving up 33.7% from three, which could be exploited by Mississippi State’s shooters. However, they limit opponents to just 27 rebounds per game (43rd nationally), which helps control possessions and offsets their own modest rebounding numbers. Johnson’s length and McGriff’s physicality give them versatility in matchups, while Haggerty and Castillo provide perimeter pressure. Against Mississippi State’s high‑octane offense, Kansas State will need to slow tempo, force contested shots, and rely on their efficiency to win the possession battle.
Mississippi State vs Kansas State Pick
Mississippi State vs Kansas State Spread Pick
- Mississippi State -3 (2 Units)
Mississippi State laying -3 makes sense given their rebounding edge and overall depth. The Bulldogs are pulling down 44.3 boards per game (T‑38th nationally) compared to Kansas State’s 32.3, which should translate into extra possessions and second‑chance scoring opportunities. Josh Hubbard’s scoring punch (22.3 PPG) combined with Shawn Jones’ versatility gives them multiple ways to attack, and their balanced production across the roster helps them withstand cold stretches. Kansas State is extremely efficient offensively, but their reliance on Haggerty and Castillo for perimeter scoring leaves them vulnerable if either struggles. Mississippi State’s ability to control the glass and push tempo could be the difference in covering a short spread.
Defensively, the Bulldogs aren’t elite, allowing 75.3 points per game, but they do a better job contesting the three than Kansas State, who gives up 33.7% from deep. That’s important against a Wildcats team that thrives on perimeter efficiency. Kansas State’s narrow 84–83 win over Tulsa showed both their offensive firepower and their defensive vulnerability, as they allowed Tulsa to shoot 47% overall. Mississippi State’s pace and rebounding should expose those weaknesses, especially if Hubbard gets downhill consistently. With the Bulldogs’ ability to generate extra possessions and Kansas State’s tendency to give up points in bunches, Mississippi State -3 feels like the sharper side.
Mississippi State vs Kansas State Over/Under Pick
- Under 162.5 (2 Units)
The Under 162.5 looks appealing because both teams’ numbers suggest a more modest scoring pace than the line implies. Mississippi State averages 80.3 points per game while allowing 75.3, and Kansas State averages 93.5 points per game while giving up 78.5. Even if both offenses perform near their season averages, the combined total projects closer to the mid‑150s rather than pushing into the 160s. Mississippi State’s rebounding edge should slow Kansas State’s transition chances, while the Wildcats’ perimeter defense, though inconsistent, is capable of forcing longer possessions. With both teams leaning on half‑court execution and physical play inside, the tempo is unlikely to sustain the kind of shootout required to clear 162.5.
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