Missouri State Bears vs Xavier Musketeers Prediction and Picks - December 12, 2025
Friday evening college hoops action, and we have a Missouri State vs Xavier prediction ready to rock and roll. Missouri State enters this game off a 98-74 loss at Tulsa to move to 4-4 on the year. Xavier is off a 79-74 home win over Cincinnati to move to 7-3 on the year. These teams last met back in 2019 and Xavier won that game at home by a score of 59-56. Continue reading to see our Missouri State vs Xavier prediction.
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Bears Can't Survive The Hurricane
Missouri State’s most recent game was a 98–74 loss to Tulsa on December 7, where the Bears shot 49% from the field and knocked down 13 threes but couldn’t keep pace defensively. Kobi Williams was the bright spot, scoring 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting, while Keith Palek and Zaxton King combined for 25 points. The Bears struggled to contain Tulsa’s perimeter shooting and gave up 14 made threes, which ultimately buried them in the second half.
Offensively, Missouri State has shown flashes of balance, averaging 78.6 points per game while shooting 45.9% from the field. Palek leads the team with 16.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, while Williams and Osei-Bonsu provide steady scoring support. Zaxton King and freshman Trey Williams have added depth in the backcourt, giving the Bears multiple perimeter options. The team’s biggest issue has been consistency from deep, hitting just 29.7% from three-point range, and their free throw shooting at 67.5% has left points on the table.
Defensively, the Bears allow 73.9 points per game, ranking in the lower half nationally, and opponents are shooting nearly 45% against them. They’ve struggled to control the glass, giving up 35.8 rebounds per game, and foul trouble has been a recurring theme with over 16 fouls per contest. Missouri State forces about 12 turnovers per game, but they haven’t been able to turn those into enough transition points. Against a Xavier team that thrives on ball movement and perimeter shooting, the Bears will need to tighten up defensively to avoid another lopsided result.
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Musketeers Top Crosstown Rival Cincinnati
Xavier’s most recent game was a 79–74 win over Cincinnati in the Crosstown Shootout on December 5, where Tre Carroll erupted for a career-high 30 points on 14-of-23 shooting. The Musketeers held off a late Bearcats rally thanks to clutch buckets from Carroll and timely free throws down the stretch. Filip Borovicanin added 12 points, and Jovan Milicevic chipped in another 12, helping Xavier secure its fourth straight win.
Offensively, Xavier has been rolling, averaging 78.7 points per game while ranking among the nation’s leaders in assists at 18.5 per game (32nd nationally). Carroll has been the go-to scorer, putting up 17.3 points per game, while Roddie Anderson and Milicevic provide reliable secondary scoring. The Musketeers are dangerous from deep, hitting 10.4 threes per game (40th nationally), with All Wright and Milicevic both shooting over 40% from beyond the arc. Their ball security has been excellent, committing just 9.1 turnovers per game, which allows them to maximize possessions.
Defensively, Xavier gives up 72.9 points per game, but they’ve been strong at limiting opponents’ three-point shooting to just 31.1%. They rebound well as a unit, pulling down 36.2 boards per game, and their ability to rotate defensively has kept them competitive against bigger teams. The Musketeers don’t block many shots, but they force opponents into tough looks and capitalize with transition offense. Coming off the emotional win over Cincinnati, Xavier will look to carry that momentum into this matchup, where they’re heavy favorites at home against Missouri State.
Missouri State vs Xavier Pick
Missouri State vs Xavier Spread Pick
- Xavier -18.5 (5 Units)
Xavier looks like the right side here, even laying the big number, because of how their offense matches up against Missouri State’s defensive weaknesses. The Musketeers are coming off a 79–74 win over Cincinnati on December 5, where Tre Carroll poured in 30 points and carried them late. Xavier averages 78.7 points per game and ranks among the nation’s leaders in assists (18.5 per game, 32nd nationally), which speaks to how well they share the ball. They also knock down over 10 threes per game (40th nationally), and with Carroll, Roddie Anderson, and Jovan Milicevic all capable of scoring in bunches, this team has the firepower to pull away quickly. Against a Missouri State squad that allows nearly 74 points per game, Xavier’s pace and perimeter shooting should create separation early.
Missouri State, meanwhile, is coming off a 98–74 loss to Tulsa on December 7, where they gave up 14 made threes and couldn’t keep up defensively. The Bears average 78.6 points per game, but they’ve been inconsistent from deep (29.7% from three) and struggle at the free throw line (67.5%). Their defense has been shaky, allowing opponents to shoot nearly 45% from the field, and they’ve had trouble controlling the glass, giving up 35.8 rebounds per game. With Xavier’s ball movement and ability to stretch defenses, Missouri State is in a tough spot on the road. Laying -18.5 is aggressive, but the Musketeers’ offensive balance and recent form suggest they’re capable of covering this number comfortably.
Missouri State vs Xavier Over/Under Pick
- Over 148.5 (4 Units)
The Over 148.5 feels like the right play in Missouri State–Xavier because both teams have shown they can score but neither has consistently locked down defensively. Xavier’s most recent outing was a 79–74 win over Cincinnati on December 5, highlighted by Tre Carroll’s 30-point performance, and the Musketeers average nearly 79 points per game while hitting over 10 threes per contest. Missouri State, meanwhile, is coming off a 98–74 loss to Tulsa on December 7, where they still shot 49% from the field and knocked down 13 threes despite the defeat. The Bears average 78.6 points per game, but they also give up almost 74 points per game, which lines up perfectly with Xavier’s offensive strengths. With both teams capable of pushing the pace and scoring in bunches, this matchup sets up for a high-scoring affair that favors the Over 148.5.
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