Missouri Tigers vs Kansas Jayhawks Prediction and Picks - December 7, 2025
It's the SEC vs the Big 12 on Sunday afternoon, and we have a Missouri vs Kansas prediction ready to rock and roll. Missouri enters this contest at 8-1 on the year, and they are off a 76-71 loss to Notre Dame on the road. The Jayhawks enter this game off a 61-56 loss to UConn, and they are now 6-3 on the year. These teams met last year and the Tigers won that game at home by a score of 76-67. Continue reading to see our Missouri vs Kansas prediction.
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Tigers Suffer First Loss Of The Year
Missouri’s most recent game was a 76–71 loss at Notre Dame on December 2, where Mark Mitchell scored 9 points and grabbed five rebounds, but the Tigers couldn’t overcome a cold stretch late in the second half. That defeat snapped an eight‑game winning streak, though Missouri still enters this rivalry matchup at 8–1 with one of the most efficient offenses in the country.
The Tigers average 90.4 points per game (22nd nationally) and shoot an impressive 54.4% from the field (13th). Mitchell has been the go‑to scorer at 18.1 points per game, while Jacob Crews adds 14.1 and Jayden Stone chips in 13.3. Missouri’s balance is evident, with five players averaging at least nine points, and their ability to score inside (63.9% on two‑point attempts, 14th nationally) makes them difficult to defend. They also rebound well, pulling down 40.3 boards per game, which ranks in the top 100.
Defensively, Missouri has held opponents to just 69.0 points per game, limiting teams to 39.5% shooting. Shawn Phillips anchors the paint with 6.4 rebounds and over a block per game, while Jevon Porter adds size and rim protection. Injuries are relatively minor: WR/KR DaMarion Fowlkes (out) and DT Elias Williams (out) were noted in recent reports, but the basketball roster remains intact. With Mitchell leading the charge and a deep supporting cast, Missouri has the firepower to challenge Kansas in a high‑intensity setting.
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Offense Struggles in Loss To UConn
Kansas’ most recent game was a 61–56 loss to No. 5 UConn on December 2, a contest that highlighted both their potential and their flaws. The Jayhawks battled hard in front of a raucous home crowd, keeping the game tight until the final minutes, but ultimately couldn’t overcome poor shooting and stretches of offensive stagnation. Melvin Council Jr. led the way with 12 points, while Flory Bidunga added 11 points and 12 rebounds, yet Kansas shot just 35% from the floor and 28% from three. The defeat snapped a three‑game winning streak that had included quality wins over Tennessee, Syracuse, and Notre Dame, and it served as a reminder that while Kansas has the talent to hang with anyone, consistency remains a work in progress.
Offensively, Kansas averages 74.0 points per game and shoots 46.1% from the field, with freshman star Darryn Peterson (21.5 points per game) expected to return from a hamstring injury. His scoring punch is critical, especially alongside Bidunga, who contributes 15.2 points and 8.8 rebounds while controlling the paint. Tre White adds 13.7 points and 6.4 boards, and Council provides balance with 10.9 points and 5.0 assists per game. Kansas has struggled from deep, hitting just 33% of threes, but Peterson’s ability to create his own shot should help stretch defenses.
Defensively, Kansas has been strong, allowing just 64.1 points per game (18th nationally) and holding opponents to 37.9% shooting. Bidunga’s rebounding and rim protection have been key, while White and Council give them versatility on the perimeter. Injuries remain a storyline: Peterson’s status is the headline, while freshman Kohl Rosario (ankle, day‑to‑day) has been limited. With Bill Self’s team looking to bounce back and the rivalry atmosphere fueling them, Kansas will lean on its defense and star power to try to slow Missouri’s high‑octane attack.
Missouri vs Kansas Pick
Missouri vs Kansas Spread Pick
- Kansas -4.5 (4 Units)
Kansas -4.5 feels like the right side because even in their 61–56 loss to UConn, the Jayhawks showed they can hang with elite competition despite shooting struggles. With freshman star Darryn Peterson expected back from a hamstring injury, Kansas regains its most dynamic scorer, and pairing him with Flory Bidunga inside gives them a balanced attack that Missouri will have trouble matching. Tre White and Melvin Council provide veteran stability, and Bill Self’s team has the depth to withstand cold stretches. Missouri has been explosive offensively, averaging over 90 points per game, but Kansas’ defense has held opponents to just 64.1 points per game, and that ability to grind possessions down is a major edge in a rivalry setting.
The other angle is how Kansas’ physicality and rebounding can neutralize Missouri’s strengths. The Tigers thrive on efficiency, shooting 54.4% from the field, but Kansas ranks top‑20 nationally in opponent field‑goal percentage and has the size to contest shots at the rim. Bidunga’s presence inside, combined with White’s versatility, should force Missouri into tougher looks than they’re used to. With Peterson back to stretch the floor and create offense late, Kansas has the tools to control tempo and pull away. Laying the 4.5 points in a rivalry game isn’t easy, but the Jayhawks’ defensive consistency and star power make them the safer side.
Missouri vs Kansas Over/Under Pick
- Under 149.5 (5 Units)
The Under 149.5 makes sense in Missouri–Kansas because the matchup pits two teams with contrasting styles that could slow the pace. Missouri has been explosive offensively, averaging 90.4 points per game, but they’re stepping into a rivalry where possessions tighten and defenses dig in. Kansas just played a grind against UConn, losing 61–56, and their defense has been one of the best in the country, holding opponents to 64.1 points per game on 37.9% shooting. With Darryn Peterson returning from injury, the Jayhawks will have more scoring punch, but Bill Self’s team thrives on controlling tempo and forcing opponents into long, contested possessions. Missouri’s efficiency will be tested against Kansas’ size and rebounding, and in a rivalry game where emotions run high, the pace often slows. That combination points toward a game that stays below the 149.5 total.
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