Penn State at Indiana Prediction, Picks and Odds for Tuesday December 9 2025
Penn State vs Indiana prediction for Tuesday night at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, where the Hoosiers look to stop a brief skid in their Big Ten opener against an 8–1 Nittany Lions squad. Below you will find updated odds, full line movement tables, matchup analysis, and our projected final score. For more breakdowns and betting angles, check the latest college basketball picks.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side: Penn State +15.5
- Total: Under 153.5
- Projected Final Score: Indiana 82, Penn State 70
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Odds and Line Movement
Indiana opened as a solid double digit favorite and support for the Hoosiers has pushed this spread into the mid teens. The total has gradually climbed from the upper 140s to the mid 150s, as oddsmakers respect both teams offensive efficiency while still pricing in a conference opener tempo.
Opening Odds
| Market | Penn State | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +13.5 (-105) | -13.5 (-115) |
| Total | Over 149.5 (-110) | Under 149.5 (-110) |
Penn State vs Indiana Current Odds
| Market | Penn State | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +15.5 (-106) | -15.5 (-114) |
| Total | Over 154.5 (-110) | Under 154.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Penn State | Indiana | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | 01:08:32am | +15½ (-106) | -15½ (-114) | |
| 12/08 | 09:54:41pm | +15½ (-110) | -15½ (-110) | |
| 12/08 | 09:53:20pm | +14½ (-118) | -14½ (-104) | |
| 12/08 | 08:48:41pm | +14 (-110) | -14 (-110) | |
| 12/08 | 08:33:46pm | +14½ (-106) | -14½ (-114) | |
| 12/08 | 06:07:17pm | +13½ (-106) | -13½ (-114) | |
| 12/08 | 05:45:54pm | +13½ (-115) | -13½ (-105) | |
| 12/08 | 05:45:14pm | +13½ (-114) | -13½ (-106) | |
| 12/08 | 05:43:09pm | +12½ (-110) | -12½ (-110) | |
| 12/08 | 05:41:16pm | +13 (-110) | -13 (-110) | |
| 12/08 | 05:17:31pm | +14½ (-110) | -14½ (-110) | |
| 12/08 | 04:49:08pm | +14½ (-114) | -14½ (-106) | |
| 12/08 | 01:42:03pm | +13½ (+105) | -13½ (-125) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | 09:11:34am | 154½ o(-110) | 154½ u(-110) | |
| 12/09 | 09:11:21am | 153½ o(-110) | 153½ u(-110) | |
| 12/09 | 04:17:21am | 152½ o(-115) | 152½ u(-105) | |
| 12/08 | 08:49:42pm | 153½ o(-108) | 153½ u(-112) | |
| 12/08 | 08:17:56pm | 152½ o(-110) | 152½ u(-110) | |
| 12/08 | 04:48:56pm | 151½ o(-110) | 151½ u(-110) | |
| 12/08 | 05:17:43pm | 150½ o(-110) | 150½ u(-110) | |
| 12/08 | 01:42:04pm | 149½ o(-110) | 149½ u(-110) |
Indiana vs Penn State Key Matchups and Handicap
Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall hosts a fascinating contrast in styles and expectations. Indiana enters at 7–2 and has largely lived up to its billing as a Big Ten contender, averaging 85.4 points per game on 48.2 percent shooting with 19.3 assists per contest. The Hoosiers share the ball, score at all three levels, and have posted a strong assist to turnover ratio that reflects good spacing and decision making.
Transfer scorer Tucker DeVries (17.8 ppg) and veteran guard Lamar Wilkerson (16.0 ppg) headline the perimeter attack, while playmaker Tayton Conerway and frontcourt pieces Reed Bailey and Sam Alexis round out a deep starting group. Indiana has also defended well overall, giving up just 66.3 points per game and holding opponents below 39 percent from the field.
However, the recent losses at Minnesota and on a neutral floor against Louisville have raised questions. In both games, Indiana struggled guarding the three point line and did not react well to playing from behind, issues that could resurface if Penn State’s shooters get comfortable early.
Penn State vs Indiana Pace and Perimeter Battle
Penn State brings an 8–1 record with only a neutral site loss to Providence, and the Nittany Lions offense has been hyper efficient. They average 83.1 points per game on 50.8 percent shooting and 37.6 percent from beyond the arc, all while turning the ball over just 8.2 times per game. That turnover rate ranks among the best in the country and is the backbone of their attack.
Kayden Mingo (15.0 ppg, 4.2 apg) orchestrates Mike Rhoades spacing and pick and roll system, flanked by shooters Freddie Dilione V and Melih Tunca plus versatile forwards Josh Reed and Ivan Juric. When Indiana overhelps, Penn State has the perimeter shot making to punish rotations. With both teams topping 80 points per game, the raw scoring averages suggest a high possession contest, but Big Ten physicality and the importance of every conference game can slightly temper pace.
Indiana vs Penn State Interior and Defensive Edge
Despite Penn State’s efficient offense, Indiana still holds the defensive advantage. The Hoosiers size and length at multiple positions help them contest at the rim and finish possessions on the glass. Their season long numbers, including No. 1 rated defensive efficiency in KenPom and No. 2 in effective field goal defense per the analysis, underline how difficult it has been to score inside against them.
That defensive foundation supports laying a larger number at home, but Penn State’s ability to value the ball and stretch the floor makes it harder for Indiana to generate the runouts that have blown open other games. With the Nittany Lions rarely handing over easy transition points, asking the Hoosiers to win by more than two full possessions beyond two touchdowns becomes a tall order.
PSU vs IU Betting Trends
- Indiana is 5–4 against the spread this season.
- Penn State is 3–6 against the spread entering this matchup.
- Indiana is 3–2 against the spread when favored by 15.5 points or more.
- The combined scoring averages for these offenses (168.5 points per game) sit well above the current total range.
PSU vs IU Key Injuries and Notes
- Indiana transfer Tucker DeVries and guard Conor Enright have both been cleared from offseason shoulder surgeries and are considered full go.
- No new major injuries are listed for the Hoosiers heading into the Big Ten opener.
- Penn State does not list any key rotation players on current injury reports, and earlier concerns about reserve guard Reggie Grodin have eased as he has appeared throughout the non conference slate.
ATS and Total Picks
The betting lens hinges on whether Indiana’s defensive ceiling and home court advantage are enough to justify such a large spread against a Penn State offense that rarely turns the ball over. The Hoosiers have been laying big numbers all season, and while their overall profile is impressive, they have only been modestly profitable in those roles.
Penn State’s elite ball security directly attacks one of Indiana’s strengths, limiting easy transition chances and forcing the Hoosiers to execute in the half court for a full 40 minutes. With Mingo running the show and multiple shooters spacing the floor, the Nittany Lions project to avoid the prolonged scoring droughts that large underdogs often suffer in this building.
Hoosiers ATS Pick
Indiana’s offense remains threatening, but the combination of Penn State’s efficient scoring, veteran guard play, and low turnover rate suggests a competitive enough performance to stay within the inflated number. Our against the spread lean goes to the road underdog.
- ATS Pick: Penn State +15.5
Indiana vs Penn State Total Pick
The raw season averages scream over, but context matters. Big Ten openers tend to tighten defensively, and Indiana’s half court defense is built to force longer possessions. With both teams valuing the ball and the Hoosiers capable of controlling tempo when they choose, scoring could fall short of the mid 150s.
- Total Pick: Under 153.5
Penn State vs Indiana Final Score Prediction
Our handicap projects Indiana to win comfortably but not necessarily in blowout fashion relative to the market number.
- Projected Final Score: Indiana 82, Penn State 70
Stats to Know for Indiana vs Penn State
- Indiana averages 85.4 points per game on 48.2 percent shooting with 19.3 assists per contest.
- The Hoosiers allow just 66.3 points per game while holding opponents under 39 percent from the field.
- Penn State scores 83.1 points per game on 50.8 percent shooting and 37.6 percent from three point range.
- The Nittany Lions turn the ball over only 8.2 times per game, one of the best marks in the nation.
- Combined, these teams average 168.5 points per game, well above the current total of 153.5, but conference tempo and Indiana’s defense could pull scoring back toward the low 80s and low 70s range in the projection.
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