San Jose State vs Michigan State Prediction and Picks - November 13, 2025
Thursday evening on the college hardwood, and we have a San Jose State vs Michigan State prediction ready to rock and roll. San Jose State comes in at 0-2 on the year, and they are off an 85-74 road loss to UCSB. Michigan State checks in at 2-0 on the young season and they are off a 69-66 home win over Arkansas. These teams last met back in 2007 and Michigan State won that game 85-45. Read on to see our San Jose State vs Michigan State prediction.
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San Jose State Falls By 11 To UCSB
San Jose State comes into this matchup at 0–2, still searching for its first victory of the season. The Spartans dropped their opener to Utah in a competitive 84–75 contest, then fell to UC Santa Barbara 85–74 despite a breakout performance from guard Colby Garland, who poured in 30 points on 11-of-13 shooting. Garland has quickly emerged as the centerpiece of this offense, showing he can score at all three levels and carry the team when needed. Head coach Tim Miles, now in his fifth season, has pieced together a roster heavy on transfers and newcomers, meaning chemistry is still a work in progress.
Offensively, San Jose State has shown flashes of efficiency, shooting nearly 49% from the field across their first two games. They’ve been able to get good looks inside and Garland’s mid-range game has been a weapon, but the team has struggled from deep, hitting under 30% of their three-point attempts. Free throws have also been an issue, with missed opportunities at the line costing them in both losses. Against Michigan State, the Spartans will need to be sharper in those areas, because wasted possessions against a Top 25 team can quickly snowball into double-digit deficits.
Defensively, San Jose State has been shaky, giving up over 80 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot better than 53% from the floor. They’ve been vulnerable on the perimeter, surrendering nearly 45% from beyond the arc, and rebounding has been another concern, with opponents consistently winning battles on the glass. If they want to hang around in East Lansing, the Spartans will need to tighten rotations, contest shots more effectively, and find ways to limit second-chance opportunities. Garland can score, but unless the defense shows more resistance, San Jose State risks being overwhelmed by Michigan State’s depth and physicality.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sean Higgs | +1,222.00 |
| 2 |  Rob Vinciletti | +809.00 |
| 3 |  Joe Duffy | +666.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +579.00 |
| 5 |  David Hess | +572.00 |
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Michigan State Holds Off Arkansas
Michigan State enters at 2–0, fresh off a gritty 69–66 win over Arkansas that showcased their toughness in close games. Tom Izzo’s squad is once again built on balance and depth, with multiple contributors capable of stepping up on any given night. Guard Jaden Akins has been a steady scorer, averaging double figures while providing perimeter shooting, and forward Jaxon Kohler has been a force on the boards, helping the Spartans control the paint. Freshman guard Jeremy Fears Jr. has added energy and playmaking, giving Izzo another weapon in the backcourt.
The Spartans’ offense has been efficient, averaging over 77 points per game last season and showing early signs of similar production this year. They thrive on ball movement, with multiple players capable of creating shots, and their ability to crash the offensive glass gives them extra possessions. Against San Jose State, Michigan State should have a clear advantage inside, where their size and rebounding can dictate tempo. If Akins and the perimeter shooters find rhythm early, the Spartans could build a comfortable lead before halftime.
Defensively, Michigan State remains one of the toughest teams in the country, holding opponents under 67 points per game last season and already proving they can lock down in crunch time. Their ability to pressure guards and contest shots makes life difficult for teams reliant on one scorer, which is exactly the challenge San Jose State faces with Garland. Izzo’s teams are known for discipline and intensity, and this matchup should be no different. With home-court advantage at the Breslin Center and a roster deeper and more experienced than their opponent, Michigan State looks poised to control the game on both ends and continue their unbeaten start.
San Jose State vs Michigan State Pick
San Jose State vs Michigan State Spread Pick
- Michigan State -25 (1 Unit)
Michigan State -25 feels justified because the Spartans have the depth, size, and defensive intensity to overwhelm San Jose State from the opening tip. Tom Izzo’s team thrives on ball movement and rebounding, two areas where the visiting Spartans have struggled badly in their first two games. With Jaden Akins providing perimeter scoring and Jaxon Kohler controlling the paint, Michigan State should dominate both ends of the floor. San Jose State has leaned heavily on Colby Garland to carry the offense, but against a disciplined defense that pressures guards and contests every shot, it’s hard to see him finding the same success he did against mid-tier opponents.
On top of that, Michigan State’s home-court advantage at the Breslin Center adds another layer of difficulty for San Jose State, who has already shown issues with turnovers and rebounding. The Spartans’ ability to push tempo, crash the offensive glass, and force inefficient possessions should create separation quickly. Once Michigan State builds a double-digit lead, their depth allows them to keep applying pressure without letting up, making it tough for San Jose State to stay within striking distance. With Izzo’s squad looking sharp early in the season and San Jose State still searching for answers, laying 25 points looks like the right side.
San Jose State vs Michigan State Over/Under Pick
- Under 143 (2 Units)
The Under 143 looks like a smart angle because Michigan State’s defense is built to suffocate opponents, and San Jose State has already shown struggles generating consistent offense. The visiting Spartans rely heavily on Colby Garland, but against Tom Izzo’s disciplined rotations and pressure, it’s unlikely they’ll maintain efficiency. Michigan State also tends to slow games down with half-court sets and rebounding dominance, limiting transition opportunities. Combine that with San Jose State’s shooting inconsistencies and Michigan State’s ability to control tempo, and this matchup projects more as a grind than a shootout, keeping the total below the number.
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