Tennessee Volunteers vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Prediction and Picks for day, November 24th, 2025
It’s Thanksgiving week, which means we have a boatload of neutral-site tournaments on the college hardwood. That includes the Player Era Festival, which features an SEC-Big Ten crossover showdown between the Tennessee Volunteers (5-0) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-1). We’ve got you covered with our Tennessee vs. Rutgers prediction. Tip-off is scheduled for 1:00 ET from MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, NV. Read on for free NCAAB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
#20 Volunteers Stay Perfect, Move To 5-0
Coach Rick Barnes returns for his 11th season as the head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers men’s basketball program, and he’s looking to build on back-to-back Elite Eight runs. This year’s squad has been perfect out of the gate, going 5-0 to start. They haven’t played a Power Four opponent yet, and their most notable wins are against North Florida (99-66) and Rice (91-66). As for the outlook this campaign, the Vols were projected to place third in the SEC, according to the SEC preseason poll. They sit behind only Florida and Kentucky. Tennessee is currently priced at +4000 to win the NCAA tournament.
In terms of personnel, it’ll be F Nate Ament and G Ja’Kobi Gillespie leading the way this season. The duo received preseason second-team conference honors. Ament leads the way in scoring (18.8 PPG), rebounding (8.4 RPG), and steals (2.2 SPG), while Gillespie is averaging 16.6 points per contest and registering a team-leading 6.0 assists per night.
- The Volunteers enter this game with an adjusted efficiency margin of +24.93 at KenPom (13th).
- Tennessee is tallying 90.0 points per game (47th).
- The Vols are shooting 50.2% from the field (46th) and hitting 35.0% of their triples (139th).
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Scarlet Knights Drop a Home Game as Big Favorites
Meanwhile, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights will be led by Coach Steve Pikiell in 2025-26, and he’s in his ninth year with the program. Rutgers saw its young, dynamic duo of Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper depart for the NBA this past offseason, so it’s looking like they’ll be in a bit of a rebuild moving forward. The preseason Big Ten media poll agrees, ranking the Scarlet Knights 17th out of 18 teams. From a sports betting angle, they’re tied with Penn State and Minnesota for the longest odds (+25000) to win the conference title.
Rutgers got out to a roaring 4-0 start, beating Rider (81-53), Maine (72-60), Lehigh (84-72), and American (80-71). However, they suffered a 67-54 outright loss at home against Central Connecticut last time out as 15.5-point favorites. Individually, this season, it’ll be F Dylan Grant (16.6 PPG) leading the way. Look for C Emmanuel Ogbole (6.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG) to have an impact down low as well.
- KenPom has the Scarlet Knights ranked 127th in the country in adjusted efficiency margin (+3.22).
- So far in 2025-26, Rutgers is scoring 74.2 points per game, which was the 262nd-best mark among D1 schools.
- The offense is shooting 43.7% from the field (259th) and 34.4% from three-point range (153rd).
Tennessee vs. Rutgers Pick
Spread Pick for Tennessee vs. Rutgers
- Tennessee Volunteers -14.5 (-105) (5 units)
After watching the pathetic offensive output that Rutgers turned in in its recent outright loss (67-54) at home against Central Connecticut, I have absolutely no interest in backing them in a foreign gym against a top-five defense in the country. The Scarlet Knights rank outside the top 250 in both points per game and field goal rate. They’re also just 242nd at the charity stripe (69.0%).
The big question here is whether Tennessee can muster up enough offense to cover this large number. I think they can, as they’re led by a veteran guard in Ja’Kobi Gillespie (16.6 PPG). Tennessee is a perfect 5-0 SU out of the gate, posting an average margin of victory of +28.2 points. The Vols have scored 89+ points in four straight games, proving that they’re going to be dominant on both ends of the floor in 2025-26. I’ll lay the points with Tennessee in this spot.
Over/Under Pick for Tennessee vs. Rutgers
- Under 143.5 (-110) (5 units)
While I’m expecting an offensive surge from Tennessee, I still think we’ll see this game land under the total. For starters, Rutgers’ strength is its defense. They enter the new week ranked 108th in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing only 104.5 points per 100 possessions. Their star players reside down low, so if they can force Tennessee to keep the ball on the perimeter, then they should be in a better spot to succeed.
On the other hand, Tennessee remains a dominant defensive force. KenPom ranks their defense third in the country in adjusted efficiency, conceding only 92.4 points per 100 possessions. They’ve always been a slower-paced team under Coach Barnes, and that holds true this season. The Vols are 199th in adjusted tempo (69.8 possessions per 40 minutes), while the Scarlet Knights are 270th (68.6). Give me the under in this battle of defensive-minded programs.
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