Texas Longhorns vs. Duke Blue Devils, Odds, Prediction and Picks for Tuesday, November 4, 2025
Charlotte, North Carolina, hosts the Dick Vitale Invitational on Tuesday night, so check out our Texas vs. Duke predictions and enjoy some power conference hoops. The Longhorns (19-16 SU, 16-18-1 ATS) have made the tourney in five straight seasons but will start this season with their fourth head coach in six seasons. The No. 6 Blue Devils (35-4 SU, 25-14 ATS) won their conference last season and made their deepest tournament run in three seasons. Tipoff from the Spectrum Center is scheduled for 8:45 EST. Remember, nobody does it better when it comes to free NCAAB picks!
Time for Texas to pick up the pace
The Longhorns saw their win total sink for a third straight season. They did make a run to the SEC quarterfinals, which earned them a shot at the Big Dance in the NCAA Tournament First Four, but there they fell to Xavier, ending their season.
As fate would have it, the head coach they went up against in that last game is now their new head coach as Sean Miller takes over at Texas after leading the Musketeers to the NCAA Tournament in two of his three seasons at the helm. The Longhorns were picked to finish 10th the SEC Preseason Coaches’ Poll. They do return their backcourt duo of Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark, both seasoned vets at this point. Poole has 95 starts under his belt at the collegiate level and averaged 13.6 points per game in his first three years between Oregon State and Texas.
Last season, the Longhorns averaged under 80 points per game, but that number is expected to go up under Miller, who likes to emphasize pace, transition and ball movement in his offense. Miller brought forwards Dailyn Swain and Lassina Traore with him from Xavier, so the team won’t be starting at zero under their new coach. On defense, the team will go man-to-man and aggressively look to control the glass, which could be aided by a pair of young 7-foot centers in sophomore Matas Vokietaitis and freshman Lewis Obiorah.
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Team notes
- Swain is one of 20 players on the preseason watch list for the Julius Erving Small Forward of the Year Award.
- Pope led Texas with 35 steals last season.
- Team was tied for 55th in the country with 4.3 blocks per game last season.
- Longhorns have won 21 of their last 23 season openers.
Duke reloaded and ready for another run
In the land of highest expectations, the Blue Devils nearly pulled it off last season, winning the ACC title and then making a run in the NCAA Tournament before being eliminated by Houston in the Final Four.
Only in Durham could you lose all five of your starters to the NBA and still be selected as the ACC Preseason favorite. The two most noticeable departures for Blue Devils were freshmen Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel, but they wasted no time in replacing them with a new freshman duo. Cameron Boozer and Nikola Khamenia are the most recent gems in the hype machine. Cameron, the son of Duke legend Carlos Boozer, had 24 points and 23 rebounds in an exhibition against Tennessee last week. Isaiah Evans, second for the Blue Devils with 62 threes last season, is a key returning piece for Jon Scheyer’s offense, which led the nation in efficiency (1.219) last season.
Duke’s tight man-to-man defense worked without much issue last season as they yielded just 62.8 points per game. Scheyer is blessed with a bit more experienced depth this season, noting Maliq Brown and Dame Sarr as key defensive pieces. Brown was third on the team with 33 steals last season. He missed both preseason games due to a knee injury. Sarr was dealing with an oblique injury but was able to log 17 minutes versus Tennessee.
Team notes
- The Blue Devils turned the ball over 9.3 times per game last season, tied for seventh best in the country.
- Duke had an NCAA-best +20.4 point differential last year.
- Finish fourth in the nation in defensive efficiency (0.919) last season.
- Their 1.82 assist-to-turnover ratio was third-best in the country last season.
Texas vs. Duke Picks
Spread Pick for Texas vs. Duke
- Duke -7.5 (4 units)
These two storied programs have met five times in the past, all meetings won by the Blue Devils. While this is considered a “neutral site” game, it being just a two-hour drive from Durham puts this squarely in Blue Devils country. You would expect a team that loses all five of its starters from a year ago to need to reset, but that is not in Duke’s lexicon. They have simply reloaded, and this time around, they have more experienced bodies back in the mix, which is rare in this day and age. That said, they aren’t starting new by any means, and Boozer already looks like he’s been at it for years now. This is a very dangerous Blue Devils’ team once again, and they should make a very deep run in the tournament this season. Miller has done a great job at putting together this Texas roster, but unlike Duke, it might take just a little more time to bring it all together. He is trying to institute a whole new framework for the Longhorn,s and while he had a ton of experienced bodies in the mix, almost all are new to town. Having to face the Blue Devils in North Carolina to open the season will be a great test for Texas, but they are going to run out of steam late.
Take the Blue Devils giving the points.
Over/Under Pick for Texas vs. Duke
- Over 150.5 (5 units)
This matchup features a pair of heavyweights salivating for the opening bell. Duke was one of those anomalies to the numbers, ranking 269th in tempo while also ranking 11th in the country with 83.2 points per game. They were also 1st in adjusted offense, per KenPom. Scheyer’s system works because the pieces he continues to install are perfect. Their new starters are ready to make people forget about last season’s group, and they want to do so immediately. Texas was a bit more methodical with their offense last season, ranking 176th in tempo, though being 36th in adjusted offense shows they were at least efficient. Miller’s offense at Xavier last season ranked 47th in tempo, and he has already referenced the fact that up-tempo basketball is coming to Texas. The Longhorns are most definitely going to come out running. Both teams saw at least 20 of their games last season hit the over.
Take the over.
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