Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Kansas State Wildcats Prediction and Picks - November 17, 2025
Use Code SSWC College hoops action on Monday evening, and we have a Tulsa vs Kansas State prediction ready to rock and roll. Tulsa comes in at 3-0 on the year and off an 88-87 road win over Oral Roberts. Kansas State is also 3-0 on the year, and they are off a 99-96 home win over California. These teams last met in 201,9 and Kansas State won that game at home by a score of 69-67. Continue reading to see our Tulsa vs Kansas State prediction.
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Tulsa Squeaks By Oral Roberts
Tulsa heads into Manhattan looking to prove they can hang with a Big 12 heavyweight, and their early-season form has been a mixed bag. The Golden Hurricane opened with a gritty win over Oral Roberts before stumbling against tougher competition, and the challenge now is finding consistency on both ends of the floor. Guard play has been the strength, with Tylen Riley showing flashes of leadership by pushing tempo and creating shots for teammates. Riley has averaged 14.7 points per game while shooting 50% from the field and a perfect 100% from deep, making him a reliable option in crunch time. He’s paired with sharpshooter Marcus Barnstable, who has been equally impressive at 16.0 points per game while hitting 44% from three. Together, they give Tulsa a backcourt capable of keeping pace with anyone.
The frontcourt has provided balance, led by forward Dorian Green, who’s averaging 16.7 points and 5.3 rebounds while shooting over 51% from the floor. His ability to score inside and step out when needed has been critical for Tulsa’s offensive flow. Alongside him, R.J. Dean has chipped in 9.0 points per game with efficient shooting, including 42.9% from beyond the arc, while Isaiah Smikle has added toughness on the boards with 6.3 rebounds per game. The Golden Hurricane have leaned heavily on dribble penetration and transition buckets, but half-court execution remains a work in progress, especially against bigger, more physical teams.
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Defensively, Tulsa has shown effort but hasn’t always been able to sustain stops against stronger competition. Their rotations can be sharp for stretches, yet lapses in communication have led to open looks from deep — something Kansas State is well-equipped to exploit. The Golden Hurricane rely on energy from their bench, with players like Anthony Popoola bringing defensive intensity and Jamal Lawal offering perimeter shooting at 41.7% from three. Still, the lack of size in the paint has been a recurring issue, and boxing out will be critical against a Wildcats team that thrives on second-chance points. This matchup is a measuring stick for Tulsa, a chance to show they can compete against a program with tournament aspirations. If Riley and Barnstable can control tempo and avoid foul trouble, Tulsa has the ability to make things interesting, but they’ll need their best effort of the season to withstand Kansas State’s depth and physicality in a hostile environment.
Kansas State Is Ready To Contend
Kansas State enters this contest with momentum, having opened the season strong and looking every bit like a team ready to contend in the Big 12. The Wildcats have leaned on their dynamic backcourt, with P.J. Haggerty setting the tone offensively and Nate Johnson providing balance as a versatile guard. Haggerty has been electric, averaging 24.3 points per game while shooting 53.7% from the field and 50% from three, all while dishing out 6.7 assists per night. Johnson has been equally impactful, scoring 17.0 points per game with remarkable efficiency — 69% from the floor and 69.2% from deep — while adding 6.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists. Together, they’ve given Kansas State a backcourt that can score, facilitate, and defend at a high level.
Defensively, the Wildcats have been sharp, holding opponents under 40% shooting in their first few outings. Johnson’s length and activity have made him a disruptive presence, averaging two steals per game, while Haggerty’s ability to control tempo has limited opponents’ transition opportunities. Forward Kameron McGriff has added toughness inside, averaging 13.7 points on 81.8% shooting and pulling down nearly three rebounds per game. Depth has also been a strength, with Aadam Bashir contributing 12.7 points per game while shooting over 52% from the field and 52.4% from three, and David Castillo providing instant offense off the bench at 14.0 points per game with a blistering 76.9% from deep. That balance across the roster allows head coach Jerome Tang to keep fresh legs on the floor and maintain intensity for a full 40 minutes.
This game against Tulsa is an opportunity for Kansas State to continue building confidence before diving deeper into conference play. The Wildcats will look to establish dominance early, using their size and athleticism to control the paint and force Tulsa into tough shots. If Haggerty and Johnson can set the tone offensively while McGriff and Bashir provide support inside, Kansas State has every reason to believe they can handle business at home. For a team with postseason ambitions, these are the kinds of games they need to win convincingly, and the Wildcats will be eager to show they can do just that in front of their home crowd.
Tulsa vs Kansas State Pick
Tulsa vs Kansas State Spread Pick
- Kansas State -14.5 (1 Unit)
Kansas State -14.5 looks like a strong play because the Wildcats’ backcourt has been firing on all cylinders, led by P.J. Haggerty’s 24.3 points per game and Nate Johnson’s efficient 17.0 points while shooting nearly 70% from the field. That combination of scoring and playmaking has allowed Kansas State to dictate tempo and overwhelm opponents early. Add in Kameron McGriff’s inside presence and Aadam Bashir’s perimeter shooting, and the Wildcats have multiple weapons that can stretch defenses and create mismatches. Against a Tulsa team that has struggled with size and consistency in the half court, Kansas State’s depth and balance should give them control from the opening tip.
Tulsa’s guard play has been solid, but their lack of interior strength is a glaring issue against a Wildcats squad that thrives on second-chance points and defensive pressure. Kansas State has held opponents under 40% shooting, and their ability to turn defense into transition buckets makes them dangerous in spurts that can quickly break a game open. With Haggerty and Johnson setting the tone and the supporting cast contributing across the board, the Wildcats have the tools to cover the -14.5 spread at home. This matchup favors Kansas State in nearly every category, and it sets up as the kind of convincing win they’ll want to secure before heading deeper into Big 12 play.
Tulsa vs Kansas State Over/Under Pick
- Under 164.5 (2 Units)
The Under 164.5 feels like the right angle because Kansas State’s defense has been locking opponents down, holding teams under 40% shooting while controlling pace with their size and rebounding. Tulsa relies on guard play and transition buckets, but against the Wildcats’ length and disciplined rotations, it’s hard to see them sustaining enough offense to push this total high. Kansas State has the depth to win comfortably, yet their style leans more toward grinding opponents out rather than trading baskets, which makes a lower-scoring outcome the more likely scenario.
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