USC Trojans vs Oregon Ducks Prediction and Picks - December 2, 2025
A couple of Big 10 will go at it in college hoops action on Tuesday evening, and we have a USC vs Oregon prediction ready to rock and roll. USC enters this contest at a perfect 7-0 on the year, and they are off an 88-75 road win over Arizona State. The Ducks come in off a 76-66 road loss to Creighton, which dropped them to 4-3 on the year. The Ducks have won the last five games in this series. Can USC break the string? Continue reading to see our USC vs Oregon prediction.
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Trojans Win The Maui Invitational
USC’s most recent game was an 88–75 win over Arizona State in the finals of the Maui Invitational, where Chad Baker-Mazara poured in 23 points on 9-of-16 shooting with four threes, while Ezra Ausar added 14 points and 6 rebounds. Jacob Cofie chipped in 11 points and 8 boards, and Jaden Brownell came off the bench with a spark, scoring 16 points on 6-of-11 shooting. The Trojans shot 60% from the field and 39% from three, pulling away in the second half with balanced scoring across the roster.
This USC team has been built around offensive firepower, averaging 92.0 points per game (55th nationally) while shooting 49% from the field (62nd) and 38.2% from three (43rd). Baker-Mazara and Rice form one of the most dangerous backcourts in the country, each averaging over 20 points per game, while Ausar provides a steady interior presence at 17.3 points and 5.4 rebounds. Cofie’s rebounding and passing from the forward spot give them versatility, and Trimble’s ability to attack off the dribble adds another layer. The Trojans aren’t elite at the free-throw line (71.2%, 185th), but their pace and shot-making make them difficult to contain.
Defensively, USC has been more uneven, allowing 77.6 points per game (209th nationally). They do force tough looks from deep, holding opponents to 27.7% from three (35th nationally), but their overall field goal defense sits at 40.5% (81st). Rebounding on the defensive end has been average (32.1 per game, 186th), which can be a concern against bigger frontcourts. Against Oregon, USC’s ability to speed the game up and lean on Baker-Mazara and Rice will be critical, but they’ll need Ausar and Cofie to hold their own inside to avoid giving the Ducks too many second-chance opportunities.
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Ducks Have Lost Three In A Row
Oregon’s most recent game was a 76–66 loss to Creighton on November 27 at the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas. Sean Stewart led the Ducks with 18 points on 8-of-12 shooting, while Ege Demir grabbed 9 rebounds and Jackson Shelstad added 5 assists. Oregon shot just 7% from three and was outscored 16–7 in the final five minutes, dropping them to 4–3 on the season. It was also their 3rd loss in a row.
The Ducks’ offensive profile has been inconsistent, and that Creighton game was a reminder of how much they rely on efficiency inside. Nathan Bittle has been their most reliable scorer at 16.3 points and 7.8 rebounds per game, while Shelstad runs the show with 15.7 points and 5.2 assists. TK Simpkins adds another perimeter option at 12.3 points per game, and Kwame Evans contributes 11.1 points and 6.9 rebounds. Oregon averages 73.7 points per game (267th nationally) while shooting just 40.3% from the field (323rd) and 30.4% from three (290th). Their rebounding, however, is a strength (40.1 per game, 73rd nationally), and it often keeps them in games when the shooting isn’t there.
Defensively, Oregon has been solid but not dominant, allowing 74.7 points per game (213th nationally) while opponents shoot 44.3% overall (244th). They’ve been better at defending the perimeter, holding teams to 31.7% from three (149th), but lapses in rotations and second-chance opportunities have hurt them late in games. Stewart’s emergence as a scoring option adds balance, but the Ducks need more consistency from their guards to complement Bittle and Evans inside. Against USC’s high-octane offense, Oregon will have to lean on Shelstad’s ability to control tempo and their rebounding edge to limit transition chances.
USC vs Oregon Pick
USC vs Oregon Spread Pick
- Oregon +1.5 (4 Units)
Oregon +1.5 looks appealing because the Ducks have the frontcourt depth and rebounding edge to hang with USC. Nathan Bittle has been steady at 16.3 points and 7.8 rebounds per game, while Jackson Shelstad gives them a reliable playmaker who can control tempo and create offense. Sean Stewart’s emergence as a scoring option adds balance, and Kwame Evans provides versatility with his ability to rebound and defend multiple spots. Even in the loss to Creighton, Oregon showed they can compete physically, pulling down 40 boards and keeping the game tight until the final minutes. That kind of size and effort on the glass is exactly what can neutralize USC’s pace.
The Ducks’ defense isn’t elite, but it’s good enough to force USC into tougher looks, especially from three. They’re holding opponents to 31.7% from deep, and with Bittle and Demir inside, they can contest shots and limit second chances. USC’s offense is explosive, but Oregon’s ability to slow the game down and lean on Shelstad’s control at point guard makes them dangerous in a tight spread. With multiple scoring options and rebounding strength, Oregon has the tools to keep this matchup close and cover the +1.5.
USC vs Oregon Over/Under Pick
- Over 155 (5 Units)
The Over 155 makes sense in USC–Oregon because both teams lean heavily on offense and pace, even if their defenses have shown flashes. USC is averaging 92 points per game while shooting nearly 49% from the field and 38% from three, with Baker-Mazara and Rice both putting up over 20 a night. Oregon isn’t as efficient, but they still score 73.7 points per game and rebound well enough to create extra possessions, with Bittle, Shelstad, and Stewart all capable of double-digit scoring. USC’s defense has been shaky, allowing almost 78 points per game, while Oregon gives up nearly 75, so the combination of high usage guards, multiple scoring options, and average defensive resistance points toward a game that can easily push past 155.
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