USF at Alabama Prediction, Picks, and Odds Movement for December 17 2025
South Florida vs Alabama picks take center stage in a non-conference showdown that pairs familiarity with contrasting styles, and this matchup is firmly on the radar for bettors looking for college basketball picks ahead of Wednesday’s slate.
TLDR - Picks and Prediction
- Spread: South Florida +14.5
- Total: Under 181
- Projected Final Score: Alabama 90, South Florida 78
Stats to Know for South Florida vs Alabama
- South Florida has gone under the total in four of its last five games.
- The Bulls have shot just 29.9 percent from three-point range over their last five contests.
- Alabama and Arkansas State combined for 167 points last season when Bryan Hodgson coached the RedWolves.
- The current total has been bet up from the high 170s into the low 180s.
Odds and Line Movement
| Team | Spread | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| South Florida | +14.5 | -102 |
| Alabama | -14.5 | -120 |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 181 | -110 | -110 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | South Florida | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 12/17 | +14.5 (-102) | -14.5 (-120) |
| 12/16 | +14.5 (-102) | -14.5 (-120) |
| 12/16 | +15.5 (-110) | -15.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 12/16 | 181 (-110) | 181 (-110) |
| 12/16 | 180 (-110) | 180 (-110) |
| 12/16 | 179 (-110) | 179 (-110) |
South Florida vs Alabama Game Preview and Analysis
Alabama and head coach Nate Oats have made a habit of scheduling games against former assistants, and this matchup continues that trend. South Florida head coach Bryan Hodgson spent four seasons under Oats in Tuscaloosa and has already shown he can make life uncomfortable for his former boss. While at Arkansas State last season, Hodgson’s team had Alabama tied with seven minutes remaining.
This version of South Florida may be even more dangerous. The Bulls enter this game off impressive wins against Western Kentucky, Utah State and Charleston, and they have had a full week to prepare for Alabama’s high-octane attack. Early in the season, South Florida played at a blistering pace, but Hodgson has slowed things down slightly, especially as the Bulls’ three-point shooting has cooled.
Alabama will still look to push tempo, but South Florida’s recent defensive results and shooting profile point toward a more controlled game than the market total suggests. The Crimson Tide have the talent edge and should be able to separate late, but I am expecting the Bulls to execute a disciplined game plan aimed at limiting possessions and shot quality.
Betting Trends - USF and BAMA
- South Florida has gone under the total in four of its last five games.
- Recent totals have climbed from 177 to 181.
- South Florida is receiving the majority of spread tickets.
Key Injuries and Notes - USF and BAMA
- Bryan Hodgson faces his former head coach for the second straight season.
- South Florida enters with a full week of rest and preparation.
Final Score Prediction
Alabama 90, South Florida 78
ATS and Total Picks
- Against the Spread: South Florida +14.5
- Total: Under 181