Air Force vs. UNLV Prediction and Picks - Saturday, October 11, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Mountain West season is heating up, with this Saturday bringing us more conference action as Air Force visits UNLV. You can get the inside line on this game and see our great tips for side and total bets with our Air Force Falcons vs. UNLV Rebels prediction and picks. Kick-off is scheduled for 12:30pm PT (3:30pm ET) at the Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, NV., home of the Rebels. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
Falcons turning heads with offense
There is definitely something different about Air Force (1-4, 0-3 in MWC). The Falcons are passing the ball more than ever in 2025, moving away from the option-oriented offense that has historically defined the military academy programs. Through five games this year, Air Force is averaging 222.2 yds/G through the air, up from 89.8 yds/G in 2024. The man responsible for that transformation on the field is Liam Szarka, who went into the year sharing snaps with Josh Johnson but is now established as the Falcons' starting QB. Szarka picked up 212 yards and two TDs as well as 152 rushing yards and two TDs in last week's 34-31 loss to Navy and already has 13 total touchdowns this season, his first in college ball after failing to see action as a freshman last year.
The problem for Air Force has come without the ball. The Falcons have scored 30+ points in all of their last four games but come out on the losing side in each of them, including matchups against conference rivals Utah State, Boise State and Hawaii. They are allowing 37.8 points per game so far, ranking 132nd out of 136 FBS programs. The team is especially vulnerable in the air, placing dead last by giving up 348.3 passing yards per game against FBS opposition in 2025.
Rebels riding high
The UNLV Rebels (5-0, 1-0 in MWC) are a team to keep an eye on. UNLV is still unbeaten in 2025 with eye-catching wins over UCLA and Miami OH on its resume', entering early discussions as a CFP Group of Five team. The Rebels didn't miss a beat in beginning their Mountain West season on the right track, taking down Wyoming 31-17 on the road, having built up a 21-point lead at halftime. A big part of UNLV's success has been its dominance in the red zone, with a perfect 100% scoring rate so far this season.
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On the field, UNLV runs a rush-heavy offense that leans on the talents of Jai'Den Thomas. The junior has picked up 489 yards in five games for an average of 8.0 yards per carry and six touchdowns, leading Mountain West running backs in all three of those categories. Anthony Colandrea, who transferred from Virginia for his junior year, has also been solid at QB, averaging more than 200 yards per game with a 69% completion rate out of the pocket. The Rebels' mark of 35.6 points per game ranks 38th among Division I football programs.
Air Force vs. UNLV pick
Spread Pick for Air Force vs. UNLV
- UNLV -6.5 (5 units)
The way this Rebels offense has been rolling, they look like a solid bet to cover against Air Force. UNLV is 4-1 ATS in 2025 and has covered in its last four games. Air Force is 0-3 ATS against conference rivals this year. The Falcons' defense has shipped 40+ points three times already this season and will struggle through the air and on the ground against the Rebels: as well as their clear struggles defending against the pass, the program gives up 181.0 rushing yards per game, ranking 106th among FBS teams. The tandem of Thomas and Colandrea should be way too hot to handle here. Air Force is also coming off a loss to rival Navy and that will likely cost them a chance at a Commander-In-Chief's trophy. That letdown will not help matters in this contest.
Take the Rebels.
Over/Under Pick for Air Force vs. UNLV
- Over 65.5 (5 units)
This is a big total to cover, but the way Air Force's season is panning out it still looks like the smart choice. The Falcons have gone a perfect 5-0 on the over this season and their three conference games have yielded an average total of 81.3 points per game. They rank 30th in college football with an average of 36.4 points scored and yet still have a negative points differential.
Take the over.
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