Akron Zips vs. Toledo Rockets Prediction and Picks – Saturday, September 27
Use Code SSWC The Akron Zips will play their first MAC conference game of the 2025 season when they face the Toledo Rockets this Saturday, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Akron vs. Toledo prediction. Akron is coming off a 51-7 win over Duquesne last Saturday, but they're still looking for their first FBS win of the season. Toledo, meanwhile, lost their matchup with Western Michigan last week at the wire, falling 13-14 on a two-point conversion to fall to 2-2. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM ET at the Glass Bowl on Saturday, September 27.
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Is Akron gaining momentum after Duquesne win?
The Akron Zips are among the least successful football teams in the FBS over recent memory, but they notched their first win of the '25 season against FCS Duquesne this past Saturday. It's a step up from a program that finished 2024 with a 4-8 record and opened the 2025 season with consecutive shutout losses to Wyoming and Nebraska.
Akron looked like an FBS team against Duquesne, roundly outperforming the Dukes en route to a 51-7 win. The offense gained 518 yards to the Dukes' 230, converted 26 first downs to the Dukes' 12, and only committed one turnover while the Dukes committed three. Junior back Jordan Gant led the team with 161 yards and three touchdowns on 13 carries, more than doubling his yardage total for the season. Senior quarterback Ben Finley threw two touchdowns while completing 13 of 23 passes, finishing with a low (56.5%) completion percentage but 9.5 yards per attempt. It was a solid follow-up to the Zips' Week 3 game, where they looked competitive in a 28-31 loss to the UAB Blazers that they entered as 12-point underdogs.
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There's still a lot of room for improvement in Akron, but the forecast for this squad is a bit more optimistic than it looked a week ago – certainly more than it did after Week 2. They won as 9.5-point underdogs against Toledo in 2024; we'll see if they look competitive in the rematch.
How will Toledo respond after heartbreaking WMU loss?
The Toledo Rockets are 2-2 overall and 0-1 in conference play after their last-minute loss to the Western Michigan Mustangs last week. It was a slow, sloppy game overall, but Toledo scored first in the second quarter and held the lead from there – right up until Western Michigan quarterback Brock Lowry ran in a touchdown with 00:52 left to play, then ran in a two-point conversion to put the Mustangs up 14-13. The Rockets sputtered on the ensuing drive, as they had for much of the game, turning the ball over on downs after three straight incomplete passes.
Tucker Gleason, a senior quarterback in his fifth year at Toledo, finished the game with a 50.0% completion percentage on 30 passes, a 3.0 yards per attempt average, two interceptions, and two sacks taken. Both interceptions came early – one at the end of the Rockets' first drive, the other at the end of their third. Both were inglorious ends to drives that had lasted several plays and advanced to within 20 yards of the Mustangs' end zone. Additionally, both came on third down – the Rockets would've likely finished this game with six more points if both passes had hit the dirt. Toledo successfully kicked a field goal before halftime, and they opened the third quarter with two handoffs to senior back Chip Trayanum that ended in a two-play, 75-yard touchdown drive. Trayanum finished the game with 153 yards on 26 carries, but the Rockets only managed one field goal across seven drives the rest of the half.
The Rockets are clearly expected to turn things around, heading into a Week 5 matchup that they're favored to win by 21 points. We'll see how Gleason and the passing offense respond after what'll hopefully be the low point of their season.
Akron vs. Toledo Pick
Spread Pick for Akron vs. Toledo
- Akron +21.0 (-110) (4 Units)
After the respective weeks that the Zips and Rockets are coming off of – and considering how close the programs were at the end of last season, when Akron beat Toledo 21-14 in overtime – the spread favoring Toledo by three touchdowns feels ambitious. They were favored to win by 13.5 against Western Michigan before their offense slogged through the game and fell short of even scoring 13.5 points. It'll be hard for Toledo to sink further as an offensive operation, but it's hard to pitch them as a 21-point favorite against anyone a week after they wouldn't have covered by 21 against empty grass. For their part, Akron has covered each of the past two weeks to rebound nicely from a horrendous 0-2 start.
Over/Under Pick for Akron vs. Toledo
- Over 48.5 (-110) (4 Units)
The Team Total Over is 3-1 in Zips games this season, hitting in three distinct ways over their last three games. The Rockets, before last week's crash and burn against the Mustangs, hung 45 points on Western Kentucky and 60 points on FCS Morgan State. The 48.5 total line here isn't overly ambitious, and it would've hit easily in eight of the nine games that Akron and Toledo have played since 2006.
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