Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Missouri Tigers Prediction and Picks – Saturday, October 11
Use Code SSWC The No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide will visit the No. 14 Missouri Tigers for a high-stakes SEC matchup this Saturday, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Alabama vs. Missouri prediction. The Tide enter Week 7 at 4-1 after rebounding gracefully from a Week 1 upset loss at Florida State, while Mizzou is 5-0 heading into the weekend after a 42-6 win over UMass in Week 6. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 11.
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Alabama surging in poll after hot 2-0 SEC start
Few teams have risen as quickly in the AP Top 25 as the eighth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. The Tide were 17th in the poll two weeks ago, before pulling off a 24-21 road win over No. 5 Georgia to climb seven spots up the board. They followed that act with a 30-14 home win over No. 16 Vanderbilt, bumping themselves up another two places. They're 4-1 overall and 2-0 in SEC play heading into Week 7, good for third in the SEC standings and the fourth-highest position of the nine SEC teams in the Top 25.
Alabama played a close game against Vanderbilt, with the score never being further than seven points in either direction until the Tide pulled away in the fourth quarter. Commodores back Sedrick Alexander accounted for both of his team's touchdowns, putting Vanderbilt up 14-7 in the second quarter after following a 65-yard touchdown run with a score on a four-yard catch. The Tide took over from there, tying the game on quarterback Ty Simpson's second touchdown pass to close the first half before scoring 16 unanswered points in the second. Simpson finished the game 23/31 for 340 yards and two touchdowns, completing 74.2 percent of his passes for 11.0 yards per attempt.
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Simpson is becoming a Heisman Trophy candidate with 1,479 yards passing, 13 touchdowns and just one interception in 158 attempts.
Despite the demanding schedule, Alabama ranks fifth among FBS teams with 325.4 passing yards per game, T-34th with 36.4 points per game, and 21st with only 16.0 points allowed per game. They'll look to maintain that dominance in their upcoming gauntlet–the Tide play four more currently-ranked SEC opponents in their next five games, starting with Mizzou.
Missouri 5-0 after steamrolling early competition
The Missouri Tigers enter Week 7 at 5-0, ranked 14th in the AP Top 25, and as one of four remaining undefeated teams in the SEC. They'll face their biggest challenge of the season when Alabama visits on Saturday, but they could vault several of their conference peers with a win–seven teams, including the Tide, currently rank higher than them in the poll.
Part of that–or, rather, all of it–is the perception that Mizzou has capitalized on a weak schedule. They're 1-0 in SEC play with a 29-20 win over South Carolina, who'd lost 31-7 to Vanderbilt the weekend prior. Their other four wins came against Central Arkansas (61-6), Kansas (42-31), Louisiana (52-10), and UMass (42-6). All five wins have come at Mizzou's home in Memorial Stadium–that won't change when the Tigers host the Tide this weekend, but it helps to explain why Mizzou is so much further down the poll and enters the matchup as three-point underdogs.
Mizzou has dominated its opposition to this point–among 136 FBS teams, it's 51st in passing yards (255.6), third in rushing yards (292.0), eighth in points (45.2), and T-16th in points allowed (14.6) per game.
Senior quarterback Beau Pribula, in his first season as a starter after transferring from Penn State, has completed 75.9 percent of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt and nine touchdowns. Sophomore back Ahmad Hardy, a transfer from UL Monroe, leads the FBS in rushing yards (730), averaging 7.1 yards per carry, while tying Rutgers' Antwand Raymond for second with nine rushing touchdowns behind Washington's Jonah Coleman (10).
Alabama vs Missouri Pick
Spread Pick for Alabama vs Missouri
- Alabama -3.0 (-115) (4 Units)
Missouri is generations removed from their last win against Alabama, which doesn't necessarily have anything to do with Saturday's game but has plenty to do with sixth-year head coach Eliah Drinkwitz. He took the helm of the program ahead of the 2020 season, just in time to lose 38-19 at home against Alabama in Year 1. He's 0-2 all-time against the Tide after losing 34-0 on the road last season. Mizzou can only play the teams on their schedule, but they'll be hitting a dramatic difficulty spike against an Alabama team that's 2-0 against ranked SEC competition in the past two weeks. The +3.0 spread doesn't give them much margin to cover if they eat their first loss, as is widely expected. I'd lean toward the Tide here–they've knocked off undefeated SEC teams for two straight weeks, and Mizzou has arguably the weakest resume between themselves, Georgia, and Vanderbilt.
Over/Under Pick for Alabama vs Missouri
- Under 51.5 (-110) (4 Units)
The Team Total Over is 3-2 in Alabama games this season, but it's 0-2 since they started SEC play against Georgia (24-21, O/U 54.0) and Vanderbilt (30-14, O/U 55.5). Mizzou barely covered the 48.5-point total in their lone SEC game this year, beating South Carolina 29-20 to total 49 points. This game isn't projected to be decided by much, and the Tide have only allowed 49 total points to their four most recent opponents. I'd rather take the under here than bet on the chance these teams score 52 or more points.
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