Alabama St. vs Troy Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 12 2026

The Alabama State Hornets travel to Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama, to face the Troy Trojans on Saturday, September 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 PM ET on ESPN+. Alabama State enters at 2-0 after defeating Southern 30-17 and shutting out Lane College 34-0, while Troy is 1-0 following a 24-21 victory over Sam Houston. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.

Alabama State Takes an Unbeaten Record to Troy

Alabama State has been impressive through its first two games, outscoring its opponents 64-17. The Hornets opened with a 30-17 victory over Southern before dominating Lane College 34-0. Alabama State held Lane to only 182 total yards, including 89 rushing yards, and forced two turnovers.

The Hornets produced 278 yards against Lane, with Jamarie Hostzclaw scoring on a six-yard run to finish Alabama State’s opening possession. Through two games, Alabama State has rushed for 309 yards and passed for 320 while scoring seven offensive touchdowns. The defense has been particularly effective in scoring territory, allowing opponents only 17 total points.

This is a significant increase in competition for the Hornets. Troy is Alabama State’s only scheduled FBS opponent, and the Trojans have won 11 consecutive meetings in this series. Alabama State’s defense gives it an opportunity to remain competitive, but the offense will need more production than the 278 yards it generated against Division II Lane.

Troy Survives Its Season Opener

Troy opened its season with a competitive 24-21 home victory over Sam Houston. The Trojans entered halftime tied 14-14 before taking control with 10 unanswered points during the second half and surviving Sam Houston’s late touchdown.

Goose Crowder completed 12 of 24 passes for 165 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Gavin Griffin provided balance with 81 rushing yards on 16 carries, while TK Keyes led Troy with 48 receiving yards. The Trojans didn’t generate overwhelming offensive numbers, but they protected the football and finished drives when opportunities appeared.

There are still some defensive concerns. Sam Houston threw for 335 yards and produced enough offense to remain within three points until the final possession. Alabama State doesn’t possess the same passing profile, however, and Troy’s run defense performed well enough to make the Hornets work for their points. Staying home for a second consecutive game also gives the Trojans an important advantage.

Alabama St. vs Troy Picks and Prediction

Pick: Alabama State +17.5 or Better

With a conventional sportsbook spread not consistently available, Alabama State +17.5 or better is my target. Troy deserves to be favored, but the Trojans just played a three-point game against Sam Houston and haven’t demonstrated the offensive explosiveness necessary to comfortably lay a massive number. Alabama State has surrendered only 17 points through two games and should be capable of shortening the game with its rushing attack. Troy should win, but if the market gives us more than two touchdowns, take Alabama State +17.5 or better.

Pick: Under 48.5

The Under 48.5 is my preferred total target. Alabama State has allowed only 8.5 points per game through two contests, while Troy scored 24 in its opener and relied heavily on protecting the football and playing efficiently rather than generating explosive offense. The Hornets also face a substantial offensive step up in competition. A Troy victory somewhere around 27-13 or 30-14 fits the matchup. Take the Under if the total is set at 48.5 or higher.

Final Picks: Alabama State +17.5 or better and Under 48.5 or higher