Alabama vs LSU Picks and Prediction for Saturday November 7 2026
Alabama and LSU. In Baton Rouge. Both teams 6-2.
You really need me to explain why this is one of the best games of the weekend?
Here’s what I’m looking at. Alabama is scoring 38 points a game, and LSU is scoring 40. But LSU has been much better at keeping opponents out of the end zone.
And this one’s in Death Valley.
That matters.
The Crimson Tide visit Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, on Saturday, November 7, with kickoff at 3:30 PM ET on ABC. LSU is favored by four points at BetMGM, with the total at 52.5. Both teams were off October 31, so neither has a short-rest excuse. Game-time weather still needs a final check. Make sure you are fully prepared for all the college football games this week with our free college football picks.
Alabama Crimson Tide Have Plenty of Offense
Alabama is 6-2, including 2-1 on the road. The Crimson Tide beat Texas A&M 31-20 in their last game, getting a much-needed win after a difficult stretch. They’re 4-2 in SEC play, so this game has a lot riding on it. Lose here, and Alabama’s conference championship hopes take another hit.
The Tide average 38.3 points and allow 21.3. That’s a 17-point scoring margin against a schedule that’s included some very good opponents. Alabama can move the ball through the air and doesn’t need a long drive to score. But LSU is allowing just 16 points per game. That’s a tougher defensive matchup than most of Alabama’s opponents have presented.
Keelon Russell threw for 311 yards and three touchdowns against Texas A&M. That’s the sort of performance Alabama needs again. Russell has the arm to challenge LSU downfield, but the offensive line needs to keep him comfortable. Left guard William Sanders is expected to miss time, which is an important concern against a defense as strong as LSU’s. Alabama’s final injury report should be checked for any additional offensive-line changes.
LSU Tigers Have the Defensive Advantage
LSU is 6-2 and 3-2 in SEC play. The Tigers beat Auburn 38-17 in their last game and have had a week off to prepare for Alabama. That’s a good setup. LSU has also been one of the better defensive teams in the conference, and that’s where I think the Tigers have an advantage.
LSU averages 40.1 points and allows just 16. That’s an outstanding combination. The offense is scoring slightly more than Alabama, and the defense is allowing more than five fewer points a game. Now, I know season averages don’t decide football games. But when two teams are this evenly matched, those defensive differences deserve attention.
Sam Leavitt completed 32 of 45 passes for 387 yards against Auburn, and Jackson Harris caught nine passes for 178 yards. That’s a serious passing combination. Alabama’s secondary is going to have to defend the entire field, because LSU has shown it can move the football in big chunks. A final injury check is still necessary, but the Tigers’ passing production against Auburn gives me a concrete reason to like their offense.
Alabama vs LSU Picks and Prediction
LSU -4
I’m taking LSU minus four. Alabama can win this game. Russell is capable of throwing for 300 yards, and the Tide have beaten LSU three straight times. I’m not ignoring that. But this LSU defense is allowing 16 points a game, and the Tigers are at home with a quarterback coming off a 387-yard performance. Alabama’s offensive-line injury is another concern. I think LSU gets pressure at the right moments and wins by a touchdown.
Over 52.5 Points
I’ll take Over 52.5. LSU’s defense makes me hesitate, because 16 points allowed per game is no joke. But Alabama averages 38.3, LSU averages 40.1, and both quarterbacks have recently shown they can move the ball against SEC competition. I don’t expect either defense to completely shut the other offense down. Give me something like LSU 31-27. That’s a good football game, and it gets us Over.
Final Picks: LSU -4 and Over 52.5 Points