Alabama vs. Oklahoma, Picks, Preview, Odds and Prediction, Friday, December 19, 2025
It doesn't get much better than this in the CFP first-round matchup in this Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction. No. 9 Alabama (10-3) finished 7-1 in the SEC, losing in the Conference Championship Game to Georgia. No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2) went 6-2 in the SEC, but also beat Alabama on Nov. 15 on the road, 23-21, which is the main reason they are hosting this matchup of SEC squads. These teams will meet on Friday night at 8pmET. Check out more college football bowl and playoff predictions at Stat Salt.
Quick Picks and Prediction on Alabama vs. Oklahoma
If you're in a rush, here's a quick guide to what you're looking for.
- Oklahoma 20-Alabama 17
- Oklahoma -1.5
- Under 40.5
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Alabama vs. Oklahoma Odds and Line Movement
Check out the odds below for this Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction. There are opening odds and current odds for the spread, total, and money line.
Opening Odds for Alabama vs. Oklahoma
- Alabama -1.5 (-105)/Oklahoma +1.5 (-115)
- 040.5 (-110)/u40.5 (-110)
- ML: Alabama -114/Oklahoma -105
(odds from FanDuel)
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Movement
- Alabama -1.5 (-105)/Oklahoma moved to Alabama +1.5 (-118) moved to Oklahoma -1.5 (-108)
- 040.5 (-110)/u40.5 (-110) moved o40.5 (-106)/u40.5 (-120)
- ML: Alabama -114/Oklahoma -105 moved to Alabama -104/Oklahoma -112
Key Matchups for Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Simpson's play is the key for the Tide
Alabama got destroyed by Georgia in the SEC title game, 28-7, as a 1-point dog in their last game on Dec. 6. The Crimson Tide produced just 11 first downs, and QB Ty Simpson completed just 19 of 39 for 212 yards with a TD and a pick. The Alabama rushing game was the story as they were held to just -3 yards. There are rumors that Simpson is dealing with a back injury that has cost him his accuracy, and now, there are transfer rumors.
'Bama needs to get their running game going. Jam Miller leads the Tide with just 493 yards (4ypc) and three TDs, though he is questionable for this game with a foot injury. The Tide does a great job against the run (125.6ypg), ranking 35th, but they rank 118th in rushing yards per game (116.2ypg). Simpson is completing 64.3% of his passes for 3,268 yards with 26 TDs and five picks. He threw for 326 yards against Oklahoma with a pick and a TD on Nov. 15. He does have two very good receivers in Germie Benrard (57 rec. for 762 yds, 7TDs) and Ryan Williams (42 for 631 yards, 4 TDs).
Defense leads a strong OU squad
Most probably felt that Oklahoma wouldn't be hosting a CFP game after losing to rival Texas 3-6 on Oct. 11 and two weeks later, falling to Ole Miss (34-26) at home as a 5.5-point favorite. But the Sooners are a resilient bunch, having upset Tennessee on the road (33-27) and Alabama, before ending with wins over Missouri (17-6) and LSU (17-13). While the defense has been spectacular in their last two games, you have to wonder if the offense will be able to catch up. The good news is that Oklahoma has not played since Nov. 29 since beating LSU. That should help heal some injuries on the defensive end, while QB John Mateer needs to get back the swagger that he had earlier in the season.
Mateer struggled against LSU, tossing for 318 yards with two TDs and three INTs. Before that game, he had just one INT in his previous five games. On the season, Mateer has 2,578 passing yards (62%), 12 TDs, 10 INTs, and 416 rushing yards (7 TDs). Just like Alabama, the Sooners need to be able to run the ball and Mateer is their third-leading rusher. Tory Blaylock leads OU with 444 yards and four TDs. At receiver, Isaiah Satenga III has produced 65 catches for 948 yards and seven TDs. Just like Alabama, the Sooners are dominant against the run (81.4ypg) and not great overall as a rushing team (123.8ypg).
Betting Trends for Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Alabama:
- 8-3-1 ATS last 12 games.
- 5-0 Under last 5 games.
Oklahoma:
- 4-1 ATS last 5 in series.
- 11-2 Under last 13 games.
- 4-1 Under last 5 vs. Alabama.
Key Injuries and Analysis for Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Alabama:
- TE Jose Cuevas (foot) is questionable. Has 30 catches.
- RB Jam Miller (leg) is questionable. Leading rusher with 493 yards.
Oklahoma:
no key recent injuries
Alabama vs. Oklahoma ATS and Over/Under Betting Picks
Check below to see the pick, prediction and total with analysis.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Spread
- Oklahoma -1.5 (4 units)
Total for Alabama vs. Oklahoma
- Under 40.5 (4 units)
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Final Score Prediction
- Oklahoma 20- Alabama 17
This will be a tight game, but it comes down to the quarterbacks and while Simpson has had a better overall year, you have to wonder where his head is, considering if he's playing hurt and thinking of heading to the portal after the game (if Alabama loses). Oklahoma has the better defense and the extra rest will help them, aside from the fact that they're playing at home. Neither running game has been good
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