Arizona State Sun Devils vs Baylor Bears Pick and Prediction September 20th, 2025
Two teams in the Big 12 will go head-to-head when Baylor hosts Arizona State on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. EST in McLane Stadium. Check out our Arizona State Sun Devils vs Baylor Bears pick and prediction here!
Arizona State is currently ninth in the Big 12 with a 2-1 overall record, and they have yet to play a conference game this season. This will be their first test in the conference and if they can obtain a win here, they will elevate themselves quite a bit. Meanwhile, Baylor is in an identical position, ranked just below the Sun Devils at 10th with a 2-1 record and no conference games played. Considering Arizona State won the Big 12 conference last year, a loss would seriously hurt their chances of reclaiming their title. Baylor is favored by 2.5 points while the total is set at 60.5 points. Can Arizona State continue their climb back up with an upset win here?
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Sun Devils Stuck?
Arizona State defeated Texas State by a score of 34-15 in their most recent contest. Sam Leavitt completed 15/25 passes for 188 yards and two touchdowns while Raleek Brown rushed for 144 yards on 12 carries with a touchdown. Jordyn Tyson and Chamon Metayer each caught six passes, including a TD pass, but the former had more yards with 105. Jordan Crook had a team-high seven tackles and five tackle assists with a sack. Keyshaun Elliot nearly matched him with seven tackles and a sack of his own. Three other players had a sack on the day as well.
Arizona State will be bringing in 17 transfers, while 22 players will be leaving the school. Nyland Green, Adrian Wilson, Jaren Hamilton, and Khamari Anderson are the main faces of the incoming transfers, while Markeston Douglas and Cole Martin are the biggest names to depart the program.
Leavitt leads the Sun Devils at the QB position with a 58.1% completion percentage for 527 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions. He also has seven sacks on the year, but leads the team in rushing touchdowns with three. He is second on the team to Brown on the ground as well, as Brown has 292 yards with a pair of touchdowns. Tyson is far and away the leading receiver with 314 yards on 24 receptions. Nobody has more than seven receptions and 80 yards to put it in perspective. Tyson also has four of the five receiving touchdowns. On defense, Crook has the most total tackles with 24 and Clayton Smith has a team-high three sacks. Keith Abney II and Montana Warren each have a team-high three passes defended and Anthonie Cooper is the only player on the Sun Devils with an interception. Arizona State technically has 27 players listed on the injury report, but all but 11 of them are listed as probable.
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Baylor Back at it
Baylor crushed the Samford Bulldogs last week, winning by a score of 42-7. Sawyer Robinson completed 23/37 passes for 211 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions on the day. Bryson Washington was the leading rusher with 21 carries for 135 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Caden Knighten also rushed for a touchdown while Josh Cameron caught a team-high four passes, including a TD pass. Six players had at least three catches on the day, and three different players caught a TD pass. Travion Barnes had six tackles to lead the squad, while Micah Gifford had a sack and an interception in the effort.
The Bears have 23 incoming transfers and 19 outgoing transfers for this season. The biggest name incoming for Baylor is Walker White, a QB with solid potential for next season. Kobe Prentice, Emar'rion Winston, and Calvin Simpson-Hunt headline the incoming transfers as well. QB Dequan Finn and Corey Gordon Jr. are the key pieces departing the program.
Sawyer Robinson is the primary QB for the Bears, and he has completed 62.2% of his passes for 1,070 yards, ten touchdowns, and two interceptions. Bryson Washington is the only rusher with over 100 yards thus far and he has 304 with four touchdowns. Ashtyn Hawkins has the most catches and yards among receivers with 17 and 257, but Josh Cameron is following close behind with 15 receptions and 244 yards. Cameron also has three touchdown receptions, while Kobe Prentice has a team-high four TD catches. Keaton Thomas has a team-high 30 total tackles while nobody else has 16. Emar'rion Winston has two sacks to lead the team and DJ Coleman leads the squad with two passes defended. Three different players are tied with one interception on the season for Baylor. Twelve players are listed on Baylor's injury report, but three are probable and two are questionable.
Arizona State vs. Baylor Pick
Spread Pick for Arizona State vs Baylor
- Baylor -2.5 (4 units)
I'm not sure I trust Arizona State's offense, considering their QB has a less than 60% completion percentage and only one main receiver they throw the ball to. The Sun Devils are in a bit of a rebuild after some of their key players have left the program either through the draft of the transfer portal. Arizona State failed to win its only game on the road this season and the Bears are 7-3 in their last ten ATS, dating back to last season. I prefer Baylor at home here, particularly with the depth they have across the board.
Over/Under pick for Arizona State vs Baylor
- Under 60.5 (4 units)
I understand that these two schools score a bunch, but neither team has been as effective through the air enough for me to take the over. Both teams gave up a combined 22 points to their opponents last week, albeit against weaker opponents. I suspect the rushing attack will be the main focus for both teams. That will in turn, quickly erase time on the clock. Baylor should probably double on Tyson and make the other receivers for Arizona State step up. Should they do that, more of Arizona State's drives will stall out without any points, resulting in the total being kept low.
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