Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Duke Blue Devils Pick & Prediction - Dec 31, 2025
The Arizona State Sun Devils (8-4) take on the Duke Blue Devils (8-5) in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl this Wednesday in El Paso, Texas. This matchup presents a stark contrast in roster stability: Duke enters as the newly-crowned ACC Champion after a thrilling upset of Virginia, with nearly their entire core intact. Arizona State, meanwhile, is navigating a roster overhaul due to a wave of high-profile opt-outs and transfers, leaving head coach Kenny Dillingham to rely on a "next man up" philosophy for the season finale.
The Arizona State vs Duke game will be a great game, but you may want to check out all of our free college football predictions.
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Duke Blue Devils: ACC Champions with Rare Continuity
Manny Diaz has orchestrated a remarkable turnaround in Durham, leading the Blue Devils to their first ACC title in over six decades. Unlike many teams in the bowl season, Duke has maintained incredible continuity. Star quarterback Darian Mensah, who led the ACC with 30 touchdown passes and 3,646 yards, has officially "re-signed" with the program for 2026 and will lead the offense on Wednesday.
The Blue Devils’ high-octane passing attack (ranking 2nd in the ACC) features a trio of elite weapons: 1,000-yard receiver Cooper Barkate, physical freshman running back Nate Sheppard (962 yards, 10 TDs), and red-zone threat Anderson Castle. While they will be without three All-ACC contributors—Vincent Anthony Jr. (DE), Chandler Rivers (CB), and Brian Parker II (OL)—who opted out for the draft, the core of the roster that won the conference title remains fully intact.
Arizona State Sun Devils: A Skeleton Crew in El Paso
Arizona State’s 8-4 season was one of the best stories in the Big 12, but they arrive in El Paso severely shorthanded, missing approximately 35 rostered players due to a combination of injury, NFL Draft opt-outs, and transfer portal entries.
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Quarterback: Sam Leavitt is officially in the portal (and dealing with a foot injury). Jeff Sims will start, bringing dual-threat veteran experience but also a history of turnover issues.
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Offensive Departures: The Sun Devils will be without 1,000-yard rusher Raleek Brown and 1,000-yard receiver Jordyn Tyson (projected 1st-round pick), effectively eliminating nearly 50% of their total offensive yardage. Both starting tackles, Max Iheanachor and Josh Atkins, are also out.
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Defensive Departures: The "Havoc" defense is decimated. Leading tackler and sack-leader Keyshaun Elliott (LB) has opted out, as has star corner Keith Abney II and defensive back Javan Robinson.
With so many veterans missing, nearly 10 players could be making their first career starts for the Sun Devils. Dillingham will look to utilize Kanye Udoh in the backfield and lean on defensive tackle C.J. Fite, one of the few stars who "opted in" to help lead the younger unit.
Expert Picks and Predictions
Duke vs Arizona State ATS Pick
- Duke -3 (-118)
I am firmly backing the Blue Devils to cover the field goal spread. In the modern bowl era, the team with the most "buy-in" and the least roster attrition typically prevails. Duke is coming off the high of a conference championship and returns their star quarterback and top playmakers. Arizona State is missing its 1,000-yard rusher, its best receiver, its starting QB, and its defensive anchor. Even with Kenny Dillingham’s coaching prowess, that is too much production to replace against a top-20 offense.
Arizona State vs Duke Total Pick
- Under 48.5 (-105)
While Duke’s offense is potent, bowl games often feature a slower start as teams shake off the layoff. Arizona State’s best path to victory is to "shrink" the game by leaning on Jeff Sims' legs and the ground game to keep Darian Mensah off the field. With ASU missing their primary home-run threats (Tyson and Brown), expect a more methodical, run-heavy approach from the Sun Devils that bleeds the clock and keeps the total below the 48.5 mark.
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