Arizona State vs. Mississippi State Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 6, 2025
Power four sides collide on Saturday night and if you need help figuring things out, you’ve come to the right place as we have Arizona State vs. Mississippi State predictions for you. The No. 12 Sun Devils (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) took out Northern Arizona last Saturday, 38-19, as -30.5 favorites at home. The Bulldogs (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) went into Southern Mississippi as -14 favorites and took a 34-17 victory away for their efforts. This matchup gets rolling at 7:30 EST from Davis Wade Stadium and if it’s more you crave, we have the best College Football Picks to help you out!
Arizona State not impressive enough in opening victory
The Sun Devils came up victorious in week one but could not cover and in the process fell a spot in the AP Top 25. The win was the program’s fifth straight season-opening victory.
In their week one victory, Arizona State was able to put points on the board in each quarter, finding the end zone in three of them. The offense produced 460 total yards and had 21 first downs, but also went 1-10 on third down opportunities. The team struck a nice balance between the pass and run, with the rushing attack racking up 203 yards and 9.7 yards per carry. Both Sam Leavitt and Kyson Brown had seven carries for 73 yards, while Leavitt hit paydirt twice in the win. Leavitt also went 25-39, throwing the ball for 257 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Jordyn Tyson had a monster day, catching 12 passes for 141 yards and two TDs.
On defense, Arizona State allowed 331 total yards, aiming for the Northern Arizona rushing attack by holding them to 89 yards and 3.1 yards per carry. The Sun Devils’ lone turnover was an interception from senior defensive lineman Anthonie Cooper, the first in his 70-game career. The team got to the opposing quarterback for three sacks, and they also had eight tackles for loss on the day. Jordan Crook led the team with seven tackles, adding a sack and tackle for loss.
“When you think of Mississippi State in Starkville, it’s an unbelievable college town, unbelievable atmosphere,” said head coach Kenny Dillingham, via ArizonaSports.com. “There’s a great environment there and we’re trying to simulate that environment as much as we can.”
Game notes
- The Sun Devils last punted on an opening drive back in 2023.
- Jordyn Tyson had 49 catches, 1,033 yards and 12 touchdowns since the sixth week of last season, the best numbers in the country over that stretch.
- Since 2023, the defense held 13 opponents under 100 rushing yards.
- Brown is one of only two FBS players to have 70+ rushing and receiving yards in the same game.
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Mississippi State makes second-half stand
The Bulldogs were able to take care of business in week one behind one big offensive quarter and a solid all-around defensive effort. It was the ninth straight season-opening win for the program.
Mississippi State had itself a 13-10 lead at halftime against Southern Miss. before exploding for 21 points in the third quarter, all drives lasting just 3:10 or less. Blake Shapen made his way back to the field for his first start since last September when he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. The senior QB went 26-33 for 272 yards, a touchdown and an interception in his return. Shapen’s top target was Branen Thompson who caught seven of his offerings for 92 yards. Davon Both led the rushing attack with 80 yards on 16 carries.
“I haven’t played in a long time so just getting out on the field there’s going to be some jitters,” said Shapen, via ESPN.com.” I was just excited to get out there and play with these guys. That’s something that I’ll never take for granted again.”
The Bulldogs’ defense allowed ten points in the first half and then held Southern Miss. down until the final 33 seconds of the game when they yielded a garbage-time touchdown. They held their opponent to 301 total yards but also allowed them to go 10-19 on third downs. Coastal Carolina transfer Will Whitson had a big effort in his debut for the Bulldogs, recording four tackles, a sack, 2.5 tackles for loss and four QB hurries. Brian Lanier had six tackles and the team’s lone interception.
Game notes
- Whitson earned Co-SEC Defensive Player of the Week honors for his efforts against Southern Miss.
- Kyle Ferrie set a program record with his 55-yard field goal in the second quarter last weekend.
- Tight end Seydou Traore had five catches, including a touchdown, the sixth of his career.
- Fluff Bothwell found the end zone twice on his 10 rushes.
Arizona State vs. Mississippi State pick
Spread Pick for Arizona State vs. Mississippi State pick
- Mississippi State +6.5 (4 units)
These programs have met only once in the past and that was just last year in a game the Sun Devils won by seven points at home as -6.5 favorites. The spread remains the same in the rematch, but the location has changed and that should make things a bit tighter. Many were expecting the 13th-ranked Sun Devils to blow out their opponent last week, but they were a little slow to get going. Same for Mississippi State. Shapen looked great in his return under center for the Bulldogs. Now that this is out of the way, look for the QB to get settled in even more so, especially in front of a Starkville crowd. Mississippi State had provided Shapen a solid running game with a few viable pieces, which will take pressure off. Of course, Arizona State has these things, but they are going on the road in the SEC and that will result in a slow Sun Devils start.
Take the Bulldogs getting the points at home.
Over/Under Pick for Arizona State vs. Mississippi State
- Under 58.5 (5 units)
When these two met last season, they combined for 53 points, hitting the under against a 58-point total. Both teams had the benefit of facing lesser resistance in their week one games. However, it seems that the offense for both teams could have done more in these wins. The fact that neither side got to 40 points tells me they may struggle against better defenses. Well, guess what? Both have better defenses than what they faced a week ago. That, coupled with what should be a raucous crowd, will slow the offenses early and maybe throughout. Temps are expected to be hovering around 80 degrees at kickoff as well, which should slow the motors.
Take the under.
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