Arizona Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Prediction and Picks – Saturday, September 27
The Arizona Wildcats and Iowa State Cyclones will meet this Saturday for their first Big 12 conference game, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Arizona vs. Iowa State prediction. Both teams are undefeated heading into this matchup, and the Cyclones enter as the No. 14 team in the AP Top 25. Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM ET at Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday, September 27.
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How real is the Wildcats' 3-0 start?
The Arizona Wildcats are 3-0 to open the 2025 season, but didn't receive a single Top 25 vote heading into Week 5. They're one of seven teams in the Big 12 alone to enter Week 5 with an undefeated record, but weren't among the six teams to make the ranking (Texas Tech, Iowa State, TCU, BYU) or receive votes (Utah, UCF). Evidently, the Wildcats' three home wins against Hawai'i (40-6), Weber State (48-3), and Kansas State (23-17) leave something to be desired from votes – can they pull off a statement win against a ranked Iowa State team to jump up the board?
Last week's 23-17 win over Kansas State wasn't nearly as close as the scoreboard made it look. Arizona gained 412 yards on offense while allowing only 193 on defense, converted 21 first downs while allowing only eight, and converted 8 of 18 third downs while allowing Kansas State to convert only 3 of 13—and stuffing them on each of 4 fourth-down attempts. It wasn't a pretty game through the air for junior quarterback Noah Fifita, who completed only 16 of 33 passes for 178 yards, but he compensated with a pair of touchdowns on the ground. Ismail Mahdi, a senior back in his first season at Arizona, gave Arizona 189 yards on 22 carries to help keep the offense moving on schedule. Defensively, Arizona allowed a couple of big plays to Jayce Brown and little else – take out Brown's contributions, and the remaining Kansas State offense gained 30 rushing yards on 23 carries and 20 air yards on seven receptions.
If Arizona can put on a similar defensive performance against Iowa State, they'll have more than a chance to win their first road game of the 2025 season.
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Cyclones escape Jonesboro with 24-16 win
The Iowa State Cyclones are 4-0 this season and sit at No. 14 in the AP Top 25, but there's cause for doubt in Ames after how narrowly the team escaped a road game against Arkansas State in Week 4. Aside from a 55-7 win against FCS South Dakota, the Cyclones are 1-1-1 against the spread this season and haven't won a game by more than a single score. Thus far, it's been a 24-21 road win over Kansas State to open the season, a 16-13 home win over Iowa for the Cy-Hawk Trophy, and last week's 24-16 win at Arkansas State in a game the Cyclones entered as 21-point favorites. If Iowa State doesn't find another gear for its offense to shift into, it's a matter of time before they're on the wrong side of one of these low-scoring games.
Rocco Becht, now a junior quarterback in his third year as the Cyclones' starter, completed 14 of 25 passes for 265 yards, a touchdown, and an interception against the Red Wolves. He put the Cyclones on the board with a 10-yard rushing touchdown in the first quarter, but sputtered in the second half before finding junior receiver Xavier Townsend on a 44-yard pass in the fourth quarter. The Cyclones finished the game with as many first-down conversions and turnovers as the Red Wolves; their saving grace was the Red Wolves' ten penalties that cost them 90 yards, including two penalties that nullified touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
We'll see if Iowa State can look more like a No. 14 team at home against Arizona. If they don't, they'll be challenged to overcome multiple other ranked Big 12 teams down the stretch.
Arizona vs. Iowa State Pick
Spread Pick for Arizona vs. Iowa State
- Arizona +6.5 (-110) (4 Units)
The Wildcats are playing their first road game of the 2025 season after staying home through the first four weeks, but they'll be facing a Cyclones team that's looked equally reluctant to put up points at home or elsewhere. Iowa State opened the season with a 24-21 win over Kansas State, which remains the only game this season in which they've covered the spread against a FBS opponent. Arizona is coming off a 23-17 win over Kansas State last week, marking the third time they've covered this season in as many games. I'd lean toward the Wildcats here.
Over/Under Pick for Arizona vs. Iowa State
- Under 49.0 (-110) (4 Units)
The Team Total Under is 3-0 in Arizona games this season and 3-1 in Iowa State games. In a common theme for the Cyclones' statistical trends this season, the lone exception is when they went over 47.5 points in their 55-7 win over South Dakota. The only other game that either team has played this season to hit 49 points is the Wildcats' 48-3 win over FCS Weber State.
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