Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Memphis Tigers Picks and Prediction - September 20, 2025
In non-conference action two teams meet for the first time in 27 years and we’ll get you ready with Arkansas vs. Memphis predictions. The Razorbacks (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) fell to No. 17 Ole Miss, 41-35, as +4 underdogs on the road. The Tigers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) got by Troy last week, 28-7, as -4 favorites on the road. The opening kickoff from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium is scheduled for Noon EST and don’t get sacked this football season, try our College Football Picks!
Arkansas falls short of staying undefeated
The Razorbacks put a good charge into their game against No. 17 Ole Miss but ultimately fell short of remaining unbeaten. The offense sputtered in the second half, scoring only seven points. They gained 29 first downs by way of 526 yards and their running game averaged six yards per carry. The defense gave up 24 points in a frantic second quarter and allowed 375 passing yards and 25 first downs in the loss.
Through three games, the Arkansas offense is averaging 47.7 points and their 569.3 total yards per game ranked second among SEC teams and fifth in the nation. They’ve been extremely balanced, averaging 324 passing yards and 245.3 rushing yards per game. Taylen Green has been a dual threat nightmare for defenses, throwing for 866 yards, 11 TDs and two interceptions while also leading the team with 307 rushing yards. Mike Washington Jr. is averaging 8.4 yards per carry and has picked up 260 yards and 3 TDs. O’Mega Blake is tied for 26th in the country with 266 receiving yards.
Defensively, the Razorbacks have allowed 20.7 points and 331.7 total yards per game. They are allowing opposing teams to average 218.3 passing yards and 113.3 rushing yards per game. Seven players have recorded double-digit tackles and both Xavian Sorey Jr. and Stephen Dix Jr. lead the team with 23 tackles apiece. Quincy Rhodes Jr. has been responsible for three of the team’s seven sacks. The ‘Backs have also recorded two interceptions.
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Team notes
- The Razorbacks lead the country with a 71.9% third-down conversion percentage.
- Their red zone offense is tied for first in the country, scoring each time they’ve reached that part of the field.
- Green has had at least one passing TD and one rushing TDs in his last two games.
- Scott Stazyk is a perfect 20-for-20 on PATs but is 1-for-3 on field goals.
- PATs and 2-for-3 on field goals, with his longest 55 yards.
Memphis gets running start on season
Though they haven’t had much resistance, the Tigers remain undefeated with their balanced attack. Against Troy, they allowed zero second-half points and kept the Trojans to just 112 total yards. They gave up only 40 rush yards and 12 first downs. On offense, Memphis had 431 total yards and 22 first downs. They put things in cruise control in the second half after taking a 21-7 lead into halftime.
The Memphis offense is averaging 421 total yards and 37 points per game. They have fared better running the ball, averaging 218.3 rushing yards per game, with three players already over 100 yards on the year and three players with at least two rushing TDs. Sutton Smith has 247 yards on the ground with 4 TDs, averaging six yards per carry. The passing game has produced only 202.7 yards per game. Brendon Lewis is another dual-threat quarterback with 190 rushing yards and 608 passing yards. He’s run for one TD, thrown for two and an interception and he’s been sacked four times.
On defense, the Tigers are giving up 11 points and 244.3 total yards per game, both second among AAC defenses. Against the run, they’ve allowed just 69 yards per game, the 11th-best mark in the country. Against the pass, they’ve allowed 175.3 yards per game, and they’ve intercepted four passes. The Tigers have also recorded 10 sacks on the season, tied for the most in the American. Seven players have had at least half a sack and Sam Brumfield leads the pack with three. DeMarco Ward has half of the team’s four picks.
Team notes
- Smith was named the Paul Hornung National Player of the Week for the second straight time.
- Memphis has scored in all 10 of their red zone trips this season, tied for the national lead.
- Gianni Spetic is 15-for-15 on PATs and 2-for-3 on field goals, with his longest 55 yards.
- Team is tied for fifth in the nation with an average of 9.3 tackles for loss per game.
Arkansas vs. Memphis Picks
Spread Pick for Arkansas vs. Memphis
- Arkansas -7.5 (5 units)
Memphis owns a 3-2 SU advantage in the history of this head-to-head series, but the last meeting came in 1998, when Arkansas won, 23-9, on the road. They looked pretty strong and nearly took down a ranked opponent last weekend on the road, so there is no surprise they are favored here. Taylen Brown is a massive problem for the Tigers. The ‘Backs QB is going to make it a long day for the Memphis defense with his ability to scramble and find open guys. The Tigers are strong against the run, but they haven’t faced an attack like this yet, so I expect Arkansas to get their ground yards, as well as yards through the air. The Memphis offense has a dual threat of their own at QB, but he might be a step below Brown’s level at this stage in the game. The Tigers' rushing offense will also face their biggest opposition of the season, which will slow that offense entirely.
Take the Razorbacks giving the points.
Over/Under Pick for Arkansas vs. Memphis
- Under 62 (5 units)
Both of these teams have been able to get some big momentum behind their offenses over the first month of the season. Both are also led by quarterbacks who can sling it as well as run for legitimate yardage. The Memphis offense is going to get a bit clogged up in this matchup, having faced three cupcake defenses so far. Arkansas is going to try and limit Smith in the run game and that should keep the clock rolling. The Tigers scored only 28 points against Troy just last week, so I think they are going to struggle to put points up. I do think that the Razorbacks' offense will be in position to put up many points in this game, but I don’t think they are capable of carrying the brunt of the load here.
Take the under.
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